Key Points for June FOMC Meeting

Shawn Sng  |   16 Jun 2023  |    97 views

Event

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its two-day meeting on the 14th of June 2023. The meeting discussed the Fed’s monetary policy stance and economic projection.

 

 

Key pointers to note in this meeting

  • Interest rate pause – In this FOMC meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) discussed the uncertain lags with which monetary policy affects the economy, and as potential headwinds from credit tightening, due to the banking spiral that began in Q1 this year, have yet to be felt. Therefore, they have decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 5%-5.25%. The committee’s decision to pause rate hikes was in line with market expectations, and it was the first time it had done so since March 2022, when it began a series of 10 consecutive hikes. Committee participants also pointed out that it would be prudent to hold the target range steady in this meeting as it enabled them to gather more information and assess the implications for monetary policy.

 

  • Inflation remained sticky despite moderating – Although data points such as the PCE and CPI index which the Federal Reserve monitors closely have moderated since June last year (June 2022: Total PCE rose by approx. 7% YoY, while Core PCE rose by approx. 5% YoY) as compared to April 2023 when Total PCE was recorded to have risen by 4.4% YoY and Core PCE, that excludes food and energy, rose 4.7% Y.o.Y. For the month of May, the CPI index came in at 4% Y.o.Y, and Core CPI was 5.3% Y.o.Y these data were lower than 4.9% and 5.5% that were recorded back in the April respectively. Thus we are able to expect May’s PCE data to trend down similarly. Nonetheless, inflation pressures still remain well above the 2% range, which the Federal Reserve is committed to achieving, and the projection in the Summary of Economic Projection, or SEP, has jotted for total PCE to reach 3.2%, and Core PCE to be revised up to 3.9% respectively for this year. The labour market still remains very tight although the unemployment rate rose by 3.7% in May from 3.4% back in April, the average payroll job gain over the past three months was averaging around 283K jobs per month. (Payroll job gain in May: +339K beating estimates of +190K)

 

  • Guidance – In terms of guidance, Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned that nearly all committee participants said that some further rate increases would be appropriate this year to bring inflation down to 2% over time. According to the latest SEP that was released, the terminal projected rate has been raised from 5.1% back in March 2023 to 5.6%. This signals that we have not reached the end of the hike cycle and that borrowing costs will most likely be raised by an additional 50bps by the end of this year.

 

  • Federal Reserve Projections – A dot plot graph was released in this meeting, and according to the plotted graph in (Figure 1) a hawkish tone was set. Half of the 18 committee members penciled in that they believe the rate would be around the range of 5.6%, while 3 members indicated the rate to move even higher (including 1 who believes that the rate to be higher than 6%). However, the policymakers anticipate a 100bps rate cut in 2024.

 

  • Market Sentiments are with the bulls – Despite the hawkish tone from the Fed which suggest 2 more additional hikes in the near future. The market still remains bullish and believes that it is unlikely that the terminal rate will be increased further this year, aside from the two additional rate hikes that are expected to occur. This can be seen when all three major indices jumped more than one percent on Friday morning – 16 June 2023. (Dow Jones +1.3% to 34,408.06; S&P500 +1.2% to 4,425.84 and lastly NASDAQ +1.2% to 13,782.82). However, it is to note that if there is a sudden surge in inflationary data, more action may be taken by the Fed.

 

 

 

A Pull Back in Treasury Yields

US yields popped on the hawkish message and this was clearly seen in the US 2-year & US 10-year treasury bond yields, where the yields for the US 2 years got close to 4.80% before closing at 4.66%. While the yields for the US 10 years got close to 3.84% before closing at 3.72%. US treasuries bills are tradable on our POEMS platform. For more information please visit https://www.poems.com.sg/bonds/treasuries/.

Related Articles

Groupe BPCE 5% 10NC5 Tier 2 SGD

Groupe BPCE recently announced the issuance of its 10NC5 Tier 2 notes at a final price guidance of 5%.

Shawn Sng  |   27 Feb 2024

HSBC – Growth supported by higher rates

In FY202, HSBC growth was supported by higher rates and has reported a growth in its revenue of 30% YoY

Shawn Sng  |   23 Feb 2024

UBS Group 5.75% NC5.5 AT1 SGD

UBS Group recently announced the issuance of its NC5.5 Additional Tier 1 perpetual notes at 5.75%.

Shawn Sng  |   16 Feb 2024

Disclaimers


These commentaries are intended for general circulation. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person who may receive this document. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the units and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. Investors may wish to seek advice from a financial adviser before investing. In the event that investors choose not to seek advice from a financial adviser, they should consider whether the investment is suitable for them.

The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the "Research") contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries.

Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned.

Contact us to Open an Account

Need Assistance? Share your Details and we’ll get back to you

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

This material is provided by Phillip Capital Management (S) Ltd (“PCM”) for general information only and does not constitute a recommendation, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to invest in any of the exchange-traded fund (“ETF”) or the unit trust (“Products”) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. You should read the Prospectus and the accompanying Product Highlights Sheet (“PHS”) for key features, key risks and other important information of the Products and obtain advice from a financial adviser (“FA“) pursuant to a separate engagement before making a commitment to invest in the Products. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a FA, you should assess whether the Products are suitable for you before proceeding to invest. A copy of the Prospectus and PHS are available from PCM, any of its Participating Dealers (“PDs“) for the ETF, or any of its authorised distributors for the unit trust managed by PCM.  

An ETF is not like a typical unit trust as the units of the ETF (the “Units“) are to be listed and traded like any share on the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (“SGX-ST”). Listing on the SGX-ST does not guarantee a liquid market for the Units which may be traded at prices above or below its NAV or may be suspended or delisted. Investors may buy or sell the Units on SGX-ST when it is listed. Investors cannot create or redeem Units directly with PCM and have no rights to request PCM to redeem or purchase their Units. Creation and redemption of Units are through PDs if investors are clients of the PDs, who have no obligation to agree to create or redeem Units on behalf of any investor and may impose terms and conditions in connection with such creation or redemption orders. Please refer to the Prospectus of the ETF for more details.  

Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The purchase of a unit in a fund is not the same as placing your money on deposit with a bank or deposit-taking company. There is no guarantee as to the amount of capital invested or return received. The value of the units and the income accruing to the units may fall or rise. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the Products. There can be no assurance that investment objectives will be achieved.  

Where applicable, fund(s) may invest in financial derivatives and/or participate in securities lending and repurchase transactions for the purpose of hedging and/or efficient portfolio management, subject to the relevant regulatory requirements. PCM reserves the discretion to determine if currency exposure should be hedged actively, passively or not at all, in the best interest of the Products.  

The regular dividend distributions, out of either income and/or capital, are not guaranteed and subject to PCM’s discretion. Past payout yields and payments do not represent future payout yields and payments. Such dividend distributions will reduce the available capital for reinvestment and may result in an immediate decrease in the net asset value (“NAV”) of the Products. Please refer to <www.phillipfunds.com> for more information in relation to the dividend distributions.  

The information provided herein may be obtained or compiled from public and/or third party sources that PCM has no reason to believe are unreliable. Any opinion or view herein is an expression of belief of the individual author or the indicated source (as applicable) only. PCM makes no representation or warranty that such information is accurate, complete, verified or should be relied upon as such. The information does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for tax, legal or investment advice.  

The information herein are not for any person in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or availability for use would contravene any applicable law or regulation or would subject PCM to any registration or licensing requirement in such jurisdiction or country. The Products is not offered to U.S. Persons. PhillipCapital Group of Companies, including PCM, their affiliates and/or their officers, directors and/or employees may own or have positions in the Products. Any member of the PhillipCapital Group of Companies may have acted upon or used the information, analyses and opinions herein before they have been published. 

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.  

 

Phillip Capital Management (S) Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 199905233W)  
250 North Bridge Road #06-00, Raffles City Tower ,Singapore 179101 
Tel: (65) 6230 8133 Fax: (65) 65383066 www.phillipfunds.com

?>