Daily Morning Note – 16 Dec 2019


Note: This will be our last Morning Note for the year.
Have a good rest of the year and Happy 2020 ahead!


Global stocks continue to inch higher on the back of the positive noise surrounding a potential trade deal. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.5%. Japan’s Topix index also closed 0.5% higher after a somewhat muted reaction to the announcement of a 26 trillion yen ($239 billion) government stimulus plan. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index had gained 0.4% by 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time. S&P 500 futures pointed a positive open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.784% and gold was flat.

A Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said that officials remain in close contact with their U.S. counterparts, reiterating tariffs should be reduced proportionally as part of a phase-one trade deal.

Oil Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, in Vienna for the OPEC meeting, is willing to raise Saudi Arabia’s production slightly if other countries keep failing to meet agreed output levels, according to delegates.

Data this morning showed that Germany’s economy may not be out of the woods yet, with factory orders unexpectedly falling 0.4% in October, when a 0.4% increase had been forecast. Retail sales for the euro area also disappointed, dropping by 0.6% in the month.


Brazil, the world’s largest shipper of instant coffee, is boosting its exports to South-east Asia, targeting local rivals there that include top producer Vietnam.

International Flavors & Fragrances Inc on Sunday said it will buy DuPont Inc’s nutrition & biosciences unit for US$26.2 billion in a deal that will create a new combined company.

Australia’s conservative government on Monday cut its outlook for growth in the economy and wages as part of a A$33 billion downgrade to expected revenues over the next four years.

The US-China trade deal is “remarkable” in scope but it won’t solve all the problems between the world’s two biggest economies, the top US negotiator said on Sunday.

As Hong Kong reels from months of violent protests that have scared off tourists, smashed retailers and sent the economy into recession, one thing hasn’t wavered – the city’s obsession with real estate.

Jumbo Group announced on Sunday the opening of its first NG AH SIO Bak Kut Teh and Xinyao Hainanese Chicken Rice outlets in Shanghai. Both outlets are located at the Shanghai One International Trade Centre (ITC) and are wholly owned and managed by the group.

TT International announced late on Friday night that the extension of the long-stop date for the new restructuring scheme was approved by the majority of its creditors.

Keppel Land, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Lipalton, will be acquiring a 49 per cent stake in a joint venture with Indian developer Rustomjee Group to jointly develop a 51.4 hectare integrated township in the Thane district of Mumbai for INR 4,091 million (S$78.2 million).

Source: SGX Masnet, The Business Times, Bloomberg, Channel NewsAsia, Reuters, PSR


Phillip Singapore Strategy – A domestic recovery

Analysts: Phillip Research Team

– Expect Singapore economy to surprise on the upside – recovery in global economy and domestic macro better than expected.

– Three other themes for 2020 are trade ceasefire, risk from binary political events and less momentum for interest sensitive stocks.

– STI target of 3700 driven by growth surprise and potential re-rating catalyst.

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Date: 9 December 2019

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