DAILY MORNING NOTE | 24 July 2023

Week 30 equity strategy: Global key economic data, particularly consumer spending, continues to show signs of weakness. In the US, retail sales in June rose a mere 0.6% YoY, the slowest pace in three years and below pre-pandemic trend growth of 4%. In China, economic momentum is also losing steam. Retail sales only expanded 3% YoY in June after the torrid double-digit pace of the previous few months due to the re-opening base effect. The critical property sector remains sluggish, declining 28% YoY in June. A weak property market has far-reaching negative implications for the upstream building materials and the downstream household goods sector. We worry expectations of an inventory re-stocking cycle pushing up global growth may disappoint.

The critical but widely expected event next week will be the Federal Reserve interest rates decision on 26 July. Futures market is pricing a 90% probability of a 25-basis point hike in rates. It is doubtful Powell will mention a permanent pause in interest rates but fall back on the usual data-dependent mantra. Relying on current data while expecting a lagged effect from monetary policy will be backwards looking. The past three cycles where the Fed paused after a series of rate hikes were in 2000, 2007 and 2019. On average, a pause did trigger a short-term equity rally, but eventually, equity markets declined following rate cuts. Ultimately, the trajectory of the economy seemed to have a substantial influence on the underlying equity market trajectory. In all these episodes, bond prices did rally.

Paul Chew
Head Of Research
paulchewkl@phillip.com.sg

LOCAL shares ended the week in the black, as the slew of corporate earnings results and macroeconomic data releases globally gave investors much to mull over. This, in turn, translated to bargain hunting in the local capital market. Singapore shares rose 0.1 per cent or 3.92 points on Friday (Jul 21) to close at 3,278.30. Across the broader market, advancers outpaced decliners 306 to 241, after 1.2 billion securities worth S$862.3 million changed hands.

US STOCKS ended mixed on Friday (Jul 21), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising marginally to notch its 10th straight day of advances, its longest rally in almost six years.The blue-chip index was lifted by gains of more than 1 per cent each in Procter & Gamble and Chevron. It is now up over 6 per cent in 2023, compared to the S&P 500‘s 18 per cent rise.

Top gainers & losers

Factsheets


EVENTS OF THE WEEK

Factsheets


SG

THE Chinese government will resume a 15-day, visa-free facility for Singaporeans travelling to China from midnight on Wednesday (Jul 26), more than three years after it was suspended. These include visas for tourism, business, visiting relatives and friends, and transit purposes, the Chinese Embassy in Singapore announced on Sunday morning.

FEWER properties in Singapore went under the hammer in the second quarter of 2023, even as interest rates continued to soar and property owners remained under pressure. There were a total of 62 auction listings in Q2, down 15.1 per cent from 73 in the previous quarter. Of the 62, just 18 were mortgagee listings, down 35.7 per cent from the previous quarter’s 28. Owner listings accounted for the remaining 44, slipping marginally from 45 in Q1.

THE Singapore Exchange Regulation (SGX RegCo) is looking into potential listing-rule breaches by Kitchen Culture and will refer any infringements of the law to the relevant authorities. This comes after an independent review of the embattled kitchen solutions provider flagged potential payroll irregularities, as well as uncovered unauthorised transactions by the company.

CHRISTINA Ong, an independent director of Singtel is still eligible to be retained in her role despite exceeding nine years of service this year, due to a transitional period implemented by the Singapore Exchange.


US

GOLD prices climbed on Friday (Jul 21) as a weaker dollar made bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies, while the metal was poised for a third consecutive weekly gain on hopes that the US Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes after July.Spot gold rose 0.1 per cent to US$1,971.79 per ounce by 0119 GMT. Bullion gained nearly 1 per cent so far this week.US gold futures gained 0.2 per cent to US$1,973.80.

CHINA’S Dalian Wanda Commercial Management, a unit of China’s largest commercial real estate developer Dalian Wanda Group, has made a US$400 million bond repayment, financial information provider Redd reported on Saturday (Jul 22). Wanda Commercial, which has been under spotlight over its debt woes, has around 6.7 billion yuan (S$1.2 billion) of onshore bonds maturing and puttable through June 2024, according to Moody’s, and US$1 billion of offshore bonds coming due in the period.

TWO US House of Representatives committees said on Friday (Jul 21) they are investigating Ford Motor’s partnership with Chinese battery company CATL. Ford announced in February it is spending US$3.5 billion to build a battery plant in Michigan using technology from CATL, the world’s largest battery maker. They warned that if the company remains reliant on China for inputs to produce electric vehicle batteries, “the company will be exposing itself and US taxpayers to the whims of the Chinese Communist Party and its politics.”

AMAZON is building a US$120 million processing facility at Nasa’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida for its thousands of planned Kuiper Internet satellites, the company and state officials said on Friday (Jul 21). The 100,000 square-foot building is part of the roughly US$10 billion that Amazon has vowed to invest in its Kuiper project, a planned network of 3,200 low Earth-orbiting satellites designed to beam broadband Internet globally.

Source: SGX Masnet, Bloomberg, Channel NewsAsia, Reuters, CNBC, WSJ, The Business Times, PSR


RESEARCH REPORTS

Netflix Inc – Paid sharing driving most of the gains

Recommendation : NEUTRAL (Maintained); TP: US$446.00, Last Close: US$427.50

Analyst: Jonathan Woo

– 2Q23 results were in line with our estimates. 1H23 revenue/PATMI at 48%/51% of our FY23e forecasts. Currency continued to be a 3% point drag to revenue growth.

– Positive results on its two key initiatives: 1) Paid sharing driving majority of membership/revenue growth in 2Q23; 2) Ad-supported memberships doubled from 1Q23. Expect acceleration in revenue growth in 2H23e.

– Writer and actor strikes a positive for FY23e FCF due to delays in content spend. FY23e FCF is raised by 37%.

– We reduce our FY23e content spend by 12%. Longer-term content spend growth is also lowered by 2% to be more in line with revenue growth. We also nudge FY24e revenue/PATMI up by 3% to reflect stronger revenue trends from Paid Sharing and advertising. FY23e revenue/PATMI remain unchanged. We maintain our NEUTRAL recommendation with a raised DCF target price of US$446.00 (prev. US$388.00). Our WACC and growth rate assumptions remain the same at 12.2% and 3% respectively.

PSR Stocks Coverage

Factsheets

Factsheets


For more information, please visit:

https://www.stocksbnb.com/singapore-stocks-coverage/


POEMS Podcast:

Research Videos

Weekly Market Outlook: SG & US 3Q2023 Stock Picks, Technical Analysis & More…
Date: 17 July 2023
Click here for more on Market Outlook.
Sign up for our webinars here, and be among the first to receive economy and market updates.

PHILLIP RESEARCH IN 3 MINS

Phillip Research in 3 minutes: #29 Keppel Corporation; Initiation
Click here for more on Phillip in 3 mins.

Follow our Socials

Facebook Social Icon Instagram Icon Twitter Social Icon Youtube Social Icon Linkedin Social Icon TikTok Social Icon Spotify Social Icon

Join our Singapore Equity Research Community on POEMS Mobile 3 App for the latest research reports, market updates, insights and more

Click to join!

Disclaimer

The information contained in this email and/or its attachment(s) is provided to you for information only and is not intended to or nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided in this email do not constitute an investment advice, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the e investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise. You may wish to seek advice from an independent financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase or investing in the investment product(s) mentioned herein. In the event that you choose not to do so, you should consider whether the investment product(s) mentioned herein is suitable for you. PhillipCapital and any of its members will not, in any event, be liable to you for any direct/indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with your reliance on any information in and/or materials attached to this email. The information and/or materials provided 揳s is?without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding accuracy or fitness for a purpose is given in connection with such information and materials.

Confidentiality Note

This e-mail and its attachment(s) may contain privileged or confidential information, which is intended only for the use of the recipient(s) named above. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately and delete all copies of it. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not read, use, copy, store, disseminate and/or disclose to any person this email and any of its attachment(s). PhillipCapital and its members will not accept legal responsibility for the contents of this message. Thank you for your cooperation.

Contact us to Open an Account

Need Assistance? Share your Details and we’ll get back to you

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

This material is provided by Phillip Capital Management (S) Ltd (“PCM”) for general information only and does not constitute a recommendation, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to invest in any of the exchange-traded fund (“ETF”) or the unit trust (“Products”) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. You should read the Prospectus and the accompanying Product Highlights Sheet (“PHS”) for key features, key risks and other important information of the Products and obtain advice from a financial adviser (“FA“) pursuant to a separate engagement before making a commitment to invest in the Products. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a FA, you should assess whether the Products are suitable for you before proceeding to invest. A copy of the Prospectus and PHS are available from PCM, any of its Participating Dealers (“PDs“) for the ETF, or any of its authorised distributors for the unit trust managed by PCM.  

An ETF is not like a typical unit trust as the units of the ETF (the “Units“) are to be listed and traded like any share on the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (“SGX-ST”). Listing on the SGX-ST does not guarantee a liquid market for the Units which may be traded at prices above or below its NAV or may be suspended or delisted. Investors may buy or sell the Units on SGX-ST when it is listed. Investors cannot create or redeem Units directly with PCM and have no rights to request PCM to redeem or purchase their Units. Creation and redemption of Units are through PDs if investors are clients of the PDs, who have no obligation to agree to create or redeem Units on behalf of any investor and may impose terms and conditions in connection with such creation or redemption orders. Please refer to the Prospectus of the ETF for more details.  

Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The purchase of a unit in a fund is not the same as placing your money on deposit with a bank or deposit-taking company. There is no guarantee as to the amount of capital invested or return received. The value of the units and the income accruing to the units may fall or rise. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the Products. There can be no assurance that investment objectives will be achieved.  

Where applicable, fund(s) may invest in financial derivatives and/or participate in securities lending and repurchase transactions for the purpose of hedging and/or efficient portfolio management, subject to the relevant regulatory requirements. PCM reserves the discretion to determine if currency exposure should be hedged actively, passively or not at all, in the best interest of the Products.  

The regular dividend distributions, out of either income and/or capital, are not guaranteed and subject to PCM’s discretion. Past payout yields and payments do not represent future payout yields and payments. Such dividend distributions will reduce the available capital for reinvestment and may result in an immediate decrease in the net asset value (“NAV”) of the Products. Please refer to <www.phillipfunds.com> for more information in relation to the dividend distributions.  

The information provided herein may be obtained or compiled from public and/or third party sources that PCM has no reason to believe are unreliable. Any opinion or view herein is an expression of belief of the individual author or the indicated source (as applicable) only. PCM makes no representation or warranty that such information is accurate, complete, verified or should be relied upon as such. The information does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for tax, legal or investment advice.  

The information herein are not for any person in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or availability for use would contravene any applicable law or regulation or would subject PCM to any registration or licensing requirement in such jurisdiction or country. The Products is not offered to U.S. Persons. PhillipCapital Group of Companies, including PCM, their affiliates and/or their officers, directors and/or employees may own or have positions in the Products. Any member of the PhillipCapital Group of Companies may have acted upon or used the information, analyses and opinions herein before they have been published. 

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.  

 

Phillip Capital Management (S) Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 199905233W)  
250 North Bridge Road #06-00, Raffles City Tower ,Singapore 179101 
Tel: (65) 6230 8133 Fax: (65) 65383066 www.phillipfunds.com