DAILY MORNING NOTE | 4 August 2023

Technical Monthly July 2023

Analyst: Zane Aw

– Review of asset classes performance in July – ETFs tracking the S&P 500, Gold, Oil, Singapore Equities and Hang Seng Index were up between 2 to 11% while losers were those tracking US Treasury Bond and Bitcoin, down 0.65% and slightly over 5% respectively

– For the current trends of the ETFs tracking the various asset classes, S&P 500 is in an uptrend while Oil, Bitcoin, Singapore Equities and Hang Seng Index are in a range consolidation phase. US Treasury Bonds and Gold are in a downtrend

– In terms of the outlook for these ETFs, S&P 500 remains bullish while Oil, Bitcoin, Singapore Equities and Hang Seng Index could remain in range consolidation phase in their respective technical patterns and US Treasury Bonds and Gold could continue their downtrend

Singapore shares fell for the third consecutive day on Thursday (Aug 3), closing 0.6 per cent lower. The worst performer was Singtel which lost 2 per cent or S$0.05 to close at S$2.41. All three local lenders also finished in the red. DBS ended 0.2 per cent or S$0.08 lower at S$33.76, OCBC fell 1.1 per cent or S$0.15 to S$13.04 and UOB shed 0.3 per cent or S$0.10 to close at S$29.82. The top gainer was Sembcorp Industries which rose 1.3 per cent or S$0.07 to S$5.60.

Wall Street stocks ended lower on Thursday as investors awaited earnings reports from major tech companies after the closing bell and official employment data the following morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2 per cent to 35,215.89, while the broad-based S&P 500 fell 0.3 per cent to 4,501.85. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index dipped 0.1 per cent to 13,959.72.

SG

OCBC’s (BUY, S$14.96) 2Q2023 results were slightly below expectations with net profit of S$1.71bn vs consensus estimate of S$1.75bn. It came from lower than expected fee income of S$430mn (-10% YoY) and higher allowances of S$252mn (+248% YoY) mainly due to higher allowances set aside for non-impaired assets. Nonetheless, net interest income grew 40% YoY to S$2.34bn on the back of net interest margin growth to 2.26% (+55bps YoY). Non-interest income grew 11% YoY to S$1.07bn, mainly from net gains from the sale of investment securities and higher profit from insurance (+26% YoY), partly offset by lower fee and trading income. FY23 interim dividend is up 43% YoY to 40 cents. More details to follow after 9.15am analyst call.

Glenn Thum
Senior Research Analyst
glennthumjc@phillip.com.sg

For the first half of 2023 (1H2023), Sembcorp Industries recorded a turnover of S$3.7 billion, compared to S$3.9 billion in 1H2022. Group net profit before exceptional items (EI) increased 55% year-on-year to S$602 million, with higher contributions from the Conventional Energy and Renewables segments. Net profit before EI for the Renewables segment was S$117 million, an increase of 54% from S$76 million in 1H2022. The stronger performance was mainly driven by contributions from SDIC New Energy and HYNE in China, as well as acquisitions completed in the first quarter of 2023. Gross installed renewables capacity as at end June 2023 was 8.6GW, compared to 5.4GW at end-June 20221. Gross renewables capacity (installed and under development) totalled 11.9GW. Net profit before EI from the Integrated Urban Solutions segment was S$48 million compared to S$62 million in 1H2022. The decline was mainly due to lower commercial and residential land sales in the Vietnam Urban business, as well as lower earnings from the waste management business in Singapore. The Conventional Energy segment posted net profit before EI of S$435 million, an increase of 47% from net profit of S$296 million in 1H2022. The increase in contribution was mainly due to higher electricity prices in Singapore. The board of directors announces an interim dividend of 5.0 cents per ordinary share, which will be paid on August 22, 2023. With an increase in longer tenure power purchase agreements in Singapore, Management expects the Conventional Energy segment to provide a stable earnings profile in the second half of the year. Earnings of the Renewables segment will increase for the full year due to contributions from completed acquisitions. However, performance in the second half of the year is seasonally lower than the first half. Outlook of the Urban business is dependent on the pace of regulatory approvals and property market recovery in their countries of operation. Barring unforeseen circumstances, full year underlying earnings for the Group are expected to be higher than 2022.

StarHub has reported net profit attributable to shareholders of S$76.7 million for 1HFY2023 ended June, up 25.8% y-o-y, lifted mainly by higher contributions across all business segments. Service revenue grew 7.8% y-o-y to S$938.1 million during the half-year period, lifted by a 12.8% revenue growth in its mobile segment, 7.6% for its broadband segment, 18.2% for its entertainment segment and 1.8% for its enterprise segment. The group has declared an interim dividend of 2.5 cents for 1HFY2023, while reiterating its dividend guidance of at least 5.0 cents per share in FY2023. StarHub’s total revenue of S$1,106.1 million for 1HFY2023 was 4.5% higher y-o-y, while its operating expenses grew 3.5% y-o-y to S$1,000.7 million over the same period. Average revenue per unit (ARPU) grew y-o-y across most segments, says StarHub. Postpaid ARPU rose to S$32 from S$29, broadband ARPU grew to S$34 from S$33 and entertainment ARPU grew to S$44 from S$38. Meanwhile, enterprise revenue was bolstered by a 4.6% increase in network solutions revenue and buoyed by a 20.6% growth in the group’s managed services, as well as a 7% growth in cybersecurity services revenue.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding has reported earnings of RMB1.73 billion (S$321.7 million) for the 1HFY2023 ended June 30, 26% higher than earnings of RMB1.37 billion in the same period the year before. Earnings – or net profit – from continuing operations surged by 47% y-o-y to RMB1.73 billion from RMB1.17 billion previously. Total revenue for 1HFY2023 rose by 16% y-o-y to RMB11.3 billion due to increased shipbuilding activities. Gross profit surged by 48% y-o-y to RMB2.1 billion with gross profit margin (GPM) growing by four percentage points y-o-y to 19%. Other income, which comprised interest income from bank deposits, interest income from ship finance leases, and income from the sale of bunker stock, rose by 44.4% y-o-y to RMB234 million. This was due mainly to the higher interest income from bank deposits. Share of profits from associate companies and joint ventures (JV) rose by 0.4% y-o-y to RMB50.2 million, mainly contributed by the JV company, Yangzi-Mitsui Shipbuilding.

The cut-off yield on Singapore’s latest six-month Treasury bill (T-bill) has fallen to 3.75 per cent in the auction that closed on Thursday (Aug 3). The cut-off yield continued its downtrend from the previous six-month tenor of the T-bills, which offered a cut-off yield of 3.85 per cent. Demand for the latest auction rose slightly. The auction, which had S$5.5 billion on offer, received total applications of S$12.3 billion, representing a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.24.

Real estate investment trust (Reit) IReit Global on Thursday (Aug 3) posted a distribution per unit (DPU) of 0.93 euro cent for the six months ended Jun 30, following a preferential offering in July enlarging its unit base. Its first-half DPU is 23.8 per cent lower than its restated DPU for the corresponding year-ago period, which stands at 1.22 euro cents after taking into account the new preferential offering units. The offering raised gross proceeds of around S$75.9 million to fund the acquisition of 17 retail properties in France and issued around 186 million new units. IReit Global’s distributable income fell by 24.3 per cent year on year (yoy) to 12.4 million euros (S$18.2 million), from 16.4 million euros. This was attributed to higher finance costs and tax expenses. Its gross revenue decrease of 5.5 per cent to 28.4 million euros from 30.1 million euros was also due to these reasons, although it was partially offset by the increase in consumer price index indexation. Net property income also slipped 10.1 per cent to 22 million euros from 24.4 million, due to higher property operating expenses.

Singapore investment firm Temasek will take up to a 3 per cent stake in Mahindra and Mahindra’s electric vehicle unit at a valuation of up to US$9.8 billion, the Indian automaker said on Thursday (Aug 3). Temasek will invest 12 billion rupees (S$194.8 million) as compulsorily convertible preference shares, giving the investor a 1.49 per cent-2.97 per cent stake in Mahindra Electric Automobile, the automaker said in a regulatory filing. With Temasek, the automaker has brought onboard a “marquee investor” with strong governance. It will also help Mahindra Group strengthen its global strategic partnerships.

Jiutian Chemical Group has recorded a loss of RMB162 million (S$30.32 million) for the 1HFY2023 ended June, down from a net profit of RMB385.5 million this time last year. Total revenue for 1HFY2023 fell 73% y-o-y to RMB393.1 million, while cost of sales fell 40% y-o-y to RMB540.3 million mainly due to lower sale volume. Compared to earnings per share of 19.39 RMB cents this time last year, 1HFY2023 loss per share is 8.16 RMB cents. No dividend has been declared for 1HFY2023. Jiutian had declared an interim dividend of 0.9 Singapore cents per share in 1QFY2023, which was paid on June 16. Its board of directors blamed the sharp turn in financial performance on a “significant downward correction” of product prices across all main products of the Group, namely dimethylformamide (DMF) and methylamine. The average selling prices of DMF and methylamine were 62% and 63% lower y-o-y.

US

Apple announced 3Q23 results that beat expectations. Revenue was US$81.8bn (down 1% YoY) vs est. US$81.7bn, while EPS came in at US$1.26 vs est. US$1.19. The result beat was mainly driven by stronger Services segment, which grew by 8% YoY. Sales of iPhone fell by 2% YoY, with Mac and iPad also faced declines. The company expects 4Q23 YoY performance to be similar to the 3Q23, suggesting that revenue would come in at around US$89.3bn. However, Apple expects iPhone sales to drop less than 2% YoY, while Services growth would be even higher in the current quarter.

Maximilian Koeswoyo
Research Analyst
maximilian@phillip.com.sg

Amazon.com announced 2Q23 results that beat expectations. Revenue was US$134.4bn (up 11% YoY) vs est. US$131.5bn, and EPS came in at US$0.65, almost doubling consensus estimates of US$0.35. The result beat was mainly due to the growth reacceleration in its core online retail business and the benefits arising from the company’s cost-cutting measures. AWS, Amazon’s cloud computing segment, grew by 12% YoY – a deceleration from 16% in 1Q23, but was better than guidance of 11% growth. Management said that AWS growth has stabilized as customers shift from cost optimization to new workload deployments. The company expects 3Q23 sales to be between US$138bn-US$143bn, suggesting a 9% to 13% YoY growth, partly due to effect from its recent Prime Day event.

Maximilian Koeswoyo
Research Analyst
maximilian@phillip.com.sg

Airbnb reported a smaller sum of nights and experiences booked in the second quarter than analysts had projected. Earnings was 98 cents per share, vs. 78 cents per share expected while revenue came in at US$2.48 billion, vs. US$2.42 billion expected. Airbnb’s revenue grew 18% year over year in the quarter and net income reached US$650 million, compared with about US$379 million, or 56 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter. The company reported US$19.1 billion in gross booking value for the quarter. That was up 12% from the second quarter of last year and above the US$18.99 billion consensus among analysts. Airbnb said it had 115.1 million nights and experiences booked during the quarter, up almost 11%, but less than the 117.6 million consensus. With respect to guidance, Airbnb called for US$3.3 billion to US$3.4 billion in third-quarter revenue, or 14% to 18% growth compared with estiamtes of US$3.22 billion. Management called for a “modest” sequential acceleration in nights and experiences booked.

Block Inc. reported upbeat profit metrics for its most recent quarter while also disclosing that it now expects to book positive adjusted operating income for the full year. Net income came in at US$123 million, or 20 cents a share, for the June quarter, whereas it lost US$208 million, or 36 cents a share, in the year-earlier period. On an adjusted basis, the company logged earnings per share of 39 cents, while analysts had been modeling 36 cents. The company also recorded adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of US$384 million, ahead of the US$297 million expected. Block now anticipates US$1.5 billion in full-year adjusted EBITDA along with US$25 million in adjusted operating income, whereas it previously forecast US$1.36 billion in adjusted EBITDA and US$115 million in adjusted operating loss.

Coinbase Global beat second-quarter revenue expectations on Thursday on higher interest income while its executives said the crypto exchange expects to win its legal battle with the US securities regulator. The crypto exchange expects third-quarter subscription and services revenue of at least US$300 million, compared with estimates of US$336.15 million. Coinbase reported revenue of US$707.9 million in the second quarter, beating estimates of US$663 million. Interest income in the quarter surged to US$201.4 million from US$32.5 million a year ago. Trading volumes in the quarter dropped to US$92 billion from US$217 billion a year ago, while its loss narrowed to US$97 million from US$1.09 billion in the same period in 2022.

Moderna has reported better-than-expected revenue in the second quarter despite falling steeply due to weaker post-pandemic demand for its COVID-19 vaccine. Total revenue came in at US$344 million over the three months ended on June 30, a 93% drop from the US$4.75 billion registered in the corresponding period last year. But the figure was higher than estimates of US$321.8M. Moderna dipped to a net loss of US$3.62 per share, weighed down by inventory writedowns and other charges, although this was still narrower than estimates for a US$4.04 loss. The company’s COVID-19 vaccine brought in US$300 million in sales, down from US$1.8 billion in the first quarter. However, first-half vaccine sales of US$2.1B met the firm’s estimates. Moderna said it now expects 2023 sales from COVID-19 vaccines to be between US$6B and US$8B, with much of this amount stemming from advance purchase agreements as well as signed and anticipated commercial contracts in the US and other markets. The guidance was better than a previous forecast of US$5B, thanks in part to the US potentially snapping up 50 million to 100 million doses during the fall season.

Warner Bros Discovery posted a smaller loss for the second quarter on Thursday (Aug 3) as the media conglomerate benefited from cost cuts. Under chief executive officer David Zaslav, Warner Bros Discovery has been seeking to run its direct-to-consumer business, which includes the “Max” streaming service, more efficiently. Net loss for the quarter came in at US$1.2 billion, compared with a loss of US$3.4 billion a year earlier. The company reported a more than 16 per cent drop in total costs and expenses in the quarter. The company, forged by the union of WarnerMedia and Discovery, reported second-quarter revenue of US$10.36 billion, missing analysts’ average estimate of US$10.44 billion. Free cash flow came in at US$1.7 billion in the three months ended June, beating estimates of US$987 million.

Saudi Arabia announced Thursday (Aug 3) it is extending a voluntary oil production cut of one million barrels per day for another month, keeping up its campaign to prop up prices. The cut, which first took effect for July, could be further prolonged or even deepened, the energy ministry added. The move leaves daily production by the world’s biggest crude exporter at approximately nine million bpd.

Source: SGX Masnet, Bloomberg, Channel NewsAsia, Reuters, CNBC, WSJ, The Business Times, PSR

RESEARCH REPORTS

DBS Group Holdings Ltd – Continued NIM growth boosts NII

Recommendation: Buy (Maintained), Last done: S$33.76, TP: S$41.60, Analyst: Glenn Thum

– 2Q23 adjusted PATMI of S$2.69bn was above our estimates due to higher net interest income (NII). 1H23 adjusted PATMI is 57% of our FY23e forecast. 2Q23 DPS is raised 33% YoY to 48 cents, bringing 1H23 dividend to 90 cents. We raise our FY23e DPS from S$1.68 to S$1.86.

– NII surged 40% YoY to S$3.43bn on NIM expansion of 58bps to 2.16% despite loan growth dipping 2% YoY. Fee income rose 7% YoY, the first YoY increase in six quarters, while other non-interest income grew 52% YoY. DBS increased its NIM guidance from 2.05-2.10% to around 2.15%, lowered loan growth guidance from 3-5% to low single-digit and maintained fee income guidance at high-single digit for FY23e.

– Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of S$41.60. We raise FY23e earnings by 9% as we raise NII estimates for FY23e due to higher NIMs, offset by lower fee income, higher provisions, and higher expenses estimates. We assume 1.90x FY23e P/BV and ROE estimate of 16.6% in our GGM valuation.

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