研报 | 新加坡银行业每月快讯:在双重威胁中,坚定不移

2020年3月9日 | 增持 (维持)星展集团控股 | 增持 (维持)彭博代码: DBS SP EQU | 收盘价: SGD 21.43

预测DIV: SGD 1.32 | 目标价: SGD 27.30

总回报: 33.55%


华侨银行集团 | 增持 (维持)

彭博代码: OCBC SP EQ | 收盘价: SGD 9.72

预测DIV: SGD 0.56 | 目标价: SGD 12.10

总回报: 30.25%


大华银行集团 | 增持 (维持)

彭博代码: UOB SP EQ | 收盘价: SGD 21.83

预测DIV: SGD 1.30 | 目标价: SGD 27.80

总回报: 33.30%   




美联储将基准利率下调50个基点,至1.00% – 1.25%的区间,以应对因Covid-19疫情爆发带来的宏观经济不确定性。在未来几个季度,NIM(净息差)将可能面临更大的压缩压力。1月份,国内贷款继续放缓 (同比增长2.97%),而2020财年贷款业绩将继续取决于商业贷款的增长。因Covid-19的威胁持续升级,短期内的波动性激增,将使衍生品交易量受益。




意料之外的降息增加了NIM 的压缩压力

为了应对Covid-19 在80多个国家蔓延,加剧对全球经济增长的威胁,美联储于3月3日,星期二,将基准利率下调50个基点,至1.00 – 1.25%区间内。这一举措出乎市场意料,因为在病毒爆发前,市场预期利率不会变化。图1:3月期 SIBOR 与FFR 同步移动
我们可以观察到,3M-SOR与加息同步 (图1),这将给银行的资产收益率带来压力,并影响NIM。对NIM的净影响,将取决于银行管理其融资成本,以抵消SOR下降的能力。尽管资产收益率面临压力,NIM 对SOR的波动一直具有弹性 (图2),我们可以预计NIM将从当前水平保持在10个基点的范围内。对NIM的影响也应该推迟到2020财年的二季度才显现出来。如果进一步降息,就会出现令人担忧的情况,这将使基准利率重回2017年的水平。对银行的冲击可能会导致利润率进一步恶化,从而使银行无法在短期内相应地调整其融资成本。

图2:NIM 对SOR波动的弹性




贷款同比增长2.97%,自2019年11月以来,降幅低于1月份贷款增长3%的关口。消费贷款继续拖累贷款数据 (同比下降1.01%),但已开始出现复苏的迹象,因为降速自2019年4月以来首次开始放缓。另一方面,商业贷款继续保持强劲增长势头,同比增长5.58%。2020年,总体贷款增长将继续严重影响商业贷款的表现,商业贷款在2019年增长了6%。图3:国内贷款增长




由于中美贸易的紧张局势缓解,使波动性降低,新交所在2020年二季度的衍生品交易量同比下降13%。然而,自11月以来,VIX 指数已开始呈现上升趋势。由于受季节性庆祝活动的影响放缓,12月份新交所的DDAV 出现了下降,但到了1月份,DDAV 呈现上升 (从12月的同比增长24%到增长33%),而VIX 从12月的13.78升到1月的18.84,两者的涨幅相似。随着Covid-19疫情席卷全球不断升级,VIX 指数在2月底飙升超过40。因为投资者转向衍生品以管理市场波动,新交所的DDAV 应会继续受益。然而,我们应该看到2月份的数据与1月观察到的水平持平,但预计3月的DDAV统计数据将出现峰值。图4:DDAV 与VIX 的走势相似




在12月达到峰值后,HIBOR 在整个2月期间稳步下降。随着美国降息后,1月期和3月期HIBOR 分别降至1.19% 和1.39%,近1年的低点。这将进一步加大银行在2020年一季度NIM的压力。然而,贷款增长,仍然是香港的一个亮点,从2019年中香港骚乱以来出现大幅下滑后,今年1月同比增长了6.41%。图6:HIBOR 增加了银行利润率的压力




对新加坡银行业维持增持评级。尽管银行类的股价疲软,最近因Covid-19疫情爆发以及随后美联储意料外的降息,令担忧加剧而出现抛售,但我们认为银行类股票仍具有吸引力。这3家本地银行在2019年四季度实现了一系列强劲的盈利,而鉴于贷款增长和NIM 压缩的双重压力,2020财年末的增长更多地取决于非利息收入的前景,但它们改善了资本状况,为外部冲击提供了支撑。未来派息率的指引也为投资者提供了对当前收益率的改善。图 8:本地银行CET 1 级比率





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