黑天鹅之年过半,寻找中国投资的新灯塔

背景: 黑天鹅之年,投资中国A股仍是大趋势

 
“黑天鹅之年” – 2020年已近过半。上半年中,美股熔断,原油暴跌,我们几乎每天都经历着各种“有生之年”的系列事件。而新冠肺炎疫情作为2020年影响最大,持续时间最长的的“黑天鹅”,已经对全球经济以及金融市场产生深刻影响。
 
今年3月新型冠状病毒在全球流行,叠加油价崩盘的影响,3月美股市场10天熔断4次,同期全球股市受到强烈冲击。同期3月,中国的疫情状况得到有效控制,复工复产有序进行,即便是6月份,北京等部分地区出现新的确证的病例,疫情也能得到快速控制,并未影响宏观环境的持续回暖。
 
在此背景下,中国A股市场的走势得到了市场的广泛关注。从外资持续流入角度看,今年国际资金持续投资A股市场的趋势没有因疫情而产生变化,目前外资持股比例按流通市值占比计算,约为9%,而这一数据在2019年及2018年底分别是7%,3%。随着MSCI等国际指数宣布继续扩大A股的纳入比例,预计外资机构投资者占比将持续上升,A股资产在未来很长时间将受到国际投资者的追捧。

来源:CSOP

 

A股市场:上证指数迎来改制,市场关注新经济

 

 

中国上交所于6月宣布决定自2020年7月22日起修订上证综合指数的编制方案,改制主要涉及剔除指数中的风险警示股、纳入科创板等,以更好地反映中国经济的运行状况。
 
回顾上证指数的历史表现,上证指数走势显然未能体现中国的经济增长,10年间,上证指数累计上涨约10%,远低于中国经济增速以及A股其他主要指数。其中,代表A股大型公司的沪深300指数,代表A股成长性公司的中证500指数十年内累计上涨分别是39%和46%。此外,上证50、创业板指等指数的同期涨幅也远大于上证指数的涨幅。
 
根据市场的评论,上证指数一直在低点徘徊的其中一个主要原因就是指数中缺少高质量的新兴企业(由于对股权的硬性规定,阿里巴巴等互联网企业只能选择在海外上市),导致指数未能体现中国经济结构的变化。而从投资回报率(ROE)来看,消费、医药、科技及先进制造相关代表的新经济板块在这10年中大幅跑赢以工业,能源为代表的老经济板块。

 

来源:新浪财经 

 

投资方向:紧跟政策方向,布局新基建行业

 

南方东英首席ETF策略分析师李雪恒先生在近期的分享会上表示,A股市场在今年下半年,在流动性比较充足环境下,估值提升会比较明显。在国家大力推动新基建的背景下,相关产业的公司业绩将长期受益。

我们在之前的文章“三个问题,让您更了解新基建”中为大家整理中国新基建政策涉及的板块,主要是以5G为代表的信息基础设施,和以大数据为基础的融合基础设施。随着中国新基建政策的展开,5G 与大数据的相关公司业界将得到长足提升在建设初期,未来几年可以预见将保持高速增长。

 

相关投资标的:

 

由于5G和大数据行业的产业链较大,涉及公司较多且多为创业板,科创板公司(不开放国外投资者投资)。以下我们为投资者整理了5G和大数据涉及的公司的ETF产品,方便投资者跟踪了解:

来源:Global X, CSOP

 

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如果本文是英文翻译版本,一切请以英文为准

 

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