研报 | 凯德置地有限公司 (CapitaLand): 超光速 – 新常态

2020年3月4日

买入 (维持)

收盘价: SGD 3.54 | 预测DIV:SGD 0.12

目标价:SGD 4.20 | 总回报:22.1%

 

摘要

2019财年的收入与我们的预期大致相符,为105.6%,而DPS 持平,达到了我们12分的预测。

一系列强劲的业绩表现 – 10年后实现了10%的ROE(净资产收益率),这是因为所有部门的税后净利均有所提高 – 运营税后净利 (+21%),投资组合收益 (+25%) 和重估收益 (19%)。去杠杆化提前实现,来自现金和未动用债务工具的130亿新元的净余空间,将被适时部署。

维持买入评级,上调目标价至4.20新元。

 

业绩总括表

 

积极方面

提前在2020年底之前,实现了超过0.64倍的杠杆目标。CAPL 剥离了价值59亿新元的资产 (为2019财年30亿新元目标的两倍),截至2019年底,实现净债务/股本比为0.63倍。这为集团提供了131亿新元的债务空间 (包括现金和未动用的债务工具),以重新配置资本。64% 的撤资被注入到上市的REITs/BTs,这将增加基金平台的资产管理规模。CAPL 在2020财年,维持30亿新元的撤资目标。

2019财年出售了5,268套住房,其销售价值为132亿人民币。相比之下,2018财年售出了4,938套住房,价值125亿人民币。集团预计,到2020年,将有价值约101亿元人民币的住房交付市场,并将有7,000个单元发售。

 

消极方面

越南住宅库存持续走低,受到审批流程延长的阻碍。尽管集团对越南的前景仍保持乐观,但更严格的审批程序对补充土地储备和获得项目批准构成了障碍。

 

前景

我们预计2020财年末,将是CAPL的又一个活跃年份。随着资产负债表走强和经济环境的走弱,我们认为CAPL 将利用这个机会以更好的估值去收购资产,同时剥离非核心资产。基于集团管理16万条钥匙的目标,基金管理平台实现1000亿新元资产管理规模的抱负,新加坡的再开发机会,以及计划深化其在印度和越南的业务,我们认为CAPL 将实现可持续增长。

集团将改为半年度报告,并以年度为基础进行估值,而不是每半年一次。

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