凯德商务产业信托（CapitaLand Commercial Trust）

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投资概要

 

三季度和9个月的NPI/DPU 符合我们的预测。

来自Galileo 的全季度贡献，占CCT今年三季度NPI的5%。

通过提高固定利率的债务比例，使杠杆比率降低了35.3% 。

亚洲广场2座（AST2）提高了近乎整个投资组合的入驻率。

负租金的逆转仍困扰着关键房产。

维持增持评级，目标价为新元1.90 (先前为新元1.88)。

积极方面

通过提高固定利率的债务比例，以降低杠杆比率。8月29日通过使用Twenty Anson 的剥离资产所得偿还银行借款后，债务杠杆比率目前为35.3% (今年二季度为：37.9%)。目前，固定利率债务占借款总额的92% (今年二季度为：85%)，债务的全部成本降低2.6%。

AST2 提高了近乎整个投资组合的入驻率。由于AST2 的入驻率上升（三季度为98.1% 对比二季度为91.9%），致使投资组合的入驻率环比从97.8%上升至99.2%。

 

 

消极方面

 

负租金的逆转仍困扰着关键房产。AST2, Capital Tower 和Six Battery Road 的平均到期租金均高于2018三季度所承诺的租金。我们预计，逆转将转为正面，这是因为在写字楼租赁活动健康发展，以及CBD 核心区写字楼的供应逐渐减少的背景下，到期的租金仍将继续下滑。

 

前景

由于GRI（办公楼投资组合），CCT的最大贡献者AST2在本季度的入驻率有所上升，因此前景是乐观的。此外，从2019年4月起，从汇丰银行就汇丰大厦的一年租约展期中，CCT 将录得36%的租金增长，这将使NPI收益率由4%上升至6%。此后的建筑计划包括翻新/租赁，撤资和重建。额外的经常收入还将来自于从2019年4月起，由国家为Bugis Village 提供为期一年的新租约，租金约为100万新元。凯德置地曾在10月份，投资2700万新元与The Work Project Kingdom 联合运营，将出租Capital Tower 和Asia Square Tower 2的空间，从这些大楼中追求核心-弹性的模式。经理表示，有信心通过这个核心-弹性空间的组合，将有助于长期的租户保留。

 

投资行动

维持增持评级，同时上调目标价至新元1.90 (先前是新元1.88)。

这相当于2018财年末的收益率为5.1%，以及股价与资产净值比为0.99倍。我们调整了对DPU的估值 – 并相应地，把目标价也上调，考虑到AST2 (CCT 2018年9个月的NPI为18%)显示出有更好的入驻率。此外，在分析师变换后，我们对租金和成本假设也有所调整。

 

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Phillip Capital Management (S) Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 199905233W)  
250 North Bridge Road #06-00, Raffles City Tower ,Singapore 179101 
Tel: (65) 6230 8133 Fax: (65) 65383066 www.phillipfunds.com