研报 | 凯德商用新加坡信托(CapitaMall Trust):期待预期

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2019年4月25日

中性 (维持)

收盘价:SGD 2.36 | 预测DIV:SGD 0.116

目标价:SGD 2.21 | 总回报:-1.4%

 

2019年一季度的NPI 和DPU 符合我们的预期。

稳定的投资组合入驻率和较高的租户保留率。

Funan 的预租率达到90% – 按计划将于2019下半年开业。

受更广泛的贸易类别组合拖累,租金回归依然疲弱。租户的销售额也同比下滑0.5%。

维持中性评级,上调目标价至新元2.21 (先前目标价为新元2.09)。

 

积极方面

稳定的投资组合入驻率和较高的租户保留率。整个投资组合的入驻率稳定。尽管Jewel于2019年4月开业,但Tampines 购物中心仍保持着饱和的入驻率。租户保留率也提高至88.9% (2018年一季度/2018年四季度:82.3%/82.9%)。

Funan 的预租率达到90%。尽管初始的装修期为3-6个月,预计Funan 将从2019下半年起可为CMT 做出贡献。Funan的零售和写字楼板块,目前的租赁率为90% (2018年四季度为80%)。据媒体报道,各政府机构已在Funan租用办公室。雅诗阁位于Funan的lyf品牌的服务式公寓也预期将于2020年开始运营。

 

消极方面

租金回归仍然疲软。尽管与2018财年实现0.8%的平均租金回归相比有所改善,但2019年一季度实现1.2%的租金回归率,仍落后于升禧环球信托和星狮地产信托等同行。受到比去年同期更广泛的贸易类别组合的拖累,2019年一季度的租户销售额同比也下滑了0.5%。

 

前景
IMM (收入总额的第二大贡献者) 已于2019年1月23日将其租约再续签30年 (初始30+30 年的租约从1989年1月23日起生效)。随着裕廊湖区在URA的2019年总体规划草案中逐渐形成,我们不仅预计这一资产 (以及Westgate) 的回归率未来呈现上升趋势,而且预计估值也将逐步上升。在Funan的业务重新开始运营,预计将逐步改善投资组合的运营指标。

维持中性评级,上调目标价至新元2.21 (先前目标价为新元2.09).

我们调整目标价以反映较低的股本成本。我们的目标价转化为5.4%的可派发股息率以及1.06倍的资产净值比率。
 

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