研报 | 凯德集团: 建立弹性，寻找机会

  • 来自费用的经常性收入，提供了稳定的现金流。
  • 通过多元化减轻了COVID19带来的影响 – 商业和工业板块表现出弹性，而酒店和零售板块受到的影响最大。
  • 在纳入REITs较低的修订估值后，维持买入评级，并下调目标价至3.94新元 (先前目标价为4.20新元)。我们将2020财年末的收益降低了14.1%，因为我们考虑到提供的租金回扣带来的收入下降，以及住宿收入的疲弱。

 

 

积极方面

 

+ 来自费用和投资物业的经常性收入，提供了稳定的现金流。基金管理收入为7650万新元，同比增长了54.2%，这是由于与ASB合并后，AUM (REITs 和PR Funds)提高到7480万新元。
+ 商业和工业板块目前仍具有弹性。这两个板块分别占2019财年的息税前利润的21%和9%，预计需要寻求租户支持计划的租户数量远远少于零售板块的租户。
+ 强劲的资产负债表，拥有130亿新元的现金和未动用的贷款。净债务与股本之比为0.64倍，相当于约24亿新元的债务净空。目前，CAPL的贷款没有附加任何契约，管理层将这归功于其雄厚的实力和良好的关系。贷款机构继续保持信贷额度开放 – CAPL通过以较低的利率，被发放了两笔双边绿色贷款，成功获得4亿新元，将集团整体的隐含利率从3.2%降至3.0%。
+ 中国住宅销售稳健复苏。La Botanical (西安)的288个单元，在2020年3月24日推出后，在四天内全部被抢购一空。自售楼处重新开业以来，中国各地的住宅销售均有所回升，单元售价高于同期发售的单元。

 

 

 

 

消极方面

 

 

– 酒店和零售板块受到的影响最大。对旅行和流动的限制对这两个板块的影响最大。截至2020年4月底，本集团拥有或运营的485个物业中，其中52个物业仍处于关闭状态。管理层评论，预计这将对入住率水平和RevPAU带来压力，进而影响CAPL运营物业的费用收入，以及CAPL资产负债表上SR的租金收入。尽管SR拥有长期的客户群体，但CAPL在2020年一季度的RevPAU下降了22%。一季度，新加坡和中国的购物者客流量分别下降了10.8%和52.0%。
– 越南的住宅库存持续走低，受审批程序延长的影响。尽管集团对越南的前景仍持乐观的态度，但较长的审批流程已阻碍了集团补充渠道的能力。
 

前景

 

 

集团已决定采用半年度报告，并将按年度而非半年度进行估值。
在中国，在2月份全国范围的封锁期间，15家商场已全部重新开业。截至4月底，85%的租户已恢复营业。娱乐，影院和人潮集结中心等容易吸引大量人群的行业，尚未获得相关批准开展运营。然而，集团也表示，购物者仍很谨慎，客流量尚未恢复。在新加坡，在阻断期间(从2020年4月7日至6月1日)，约有25%被归类为基础服务的租户仍然开业。
在封锁期间，由于展厅关闭，致使开发部门经历了施工进度的延迟，以及销售的缺席。
在越南，国内和国际旅行的限制导致交付的延迟，因为买家无法完成的文件收尾工作。
在这种不确定的环境下，可能会出现重估风险。尽管CAPL拥有强劲的现金头寸，意味着集团没有任何清理资产的压力，但较低的资产价值可能会降低资本循环的速度。相反，管理层正密切关注反周期资产或估值良好的资产/业务。然而，CAPL仍致力于实现每年30亿新元的撤资目标。迄今为止，集团已进行了4.47亿新元的总投资，以及实现了3.73亿新元的总撤资。

 

 

 

维持买入评级，并下调目标价至3.94新元 (先前目标价为4.20新元)。

 

 

我们将2020财年末的收益降低了14.1%，因为我们考虑到提供的租金回扣带来的收入下降，以及酒店收入的疲软。我们的目标价，是基于RNAV 20%的折让，以及在纳入对REITs较低的修订估值后，目标价从4.20新元降至3.94新元，削减幅度达到6.2%。

 
 
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