凯德置地有限公司 | 经验和多元化犹如剑和盾

 
积极方面

+ 中国 (占AUM的42%) 和零售 (占AUM的28%) 板块的投资组合正在复苏 – 中国住宅销售办事处在3月份已逐步重新开业。2020年一季度的销售包括La Botanica (西安)的288套单元,于3月24日发售后,在4天内抢购一空。二季度延续强劲的需求势头 – 5月份推出全部528套La Botanica (西安)和194套Parc Botanic (成都)的住宅单元,均以新冠疫情出现前的平均售价出售。中国的销售率仍然很高,占已发售单位的92%,并有望在2020下半年再推出4,000套单元。大多数在2020财年交楼的单元,预计将在下半年交付。虽然大多数国家已在慢慢解封,但中国95%的办公室租户和89%的商业园租户已在其经营场所恢复运营。CAPL的核心零售市场 (中国,新加坡,日本和马来西亚)其客流量和租户销售方面均出现复苏的证据(图1)。
+ 在逆境中遇见未来运营的机遇。新冠疫情大流行加速了CAPL在零售和住宅板块的数字化举措。非必要贸易的关闭影响了CAPL的零售和住宅业务。CAPL以租赁和住宅项目的虚拟旅游作为回应,并在6月份推出其电子商务(eCapitaMall) 和在线订餐(Capita3Eats)平台,这不仅将有助于提振租户的销售,还将推动新业务,并为客户和租户粘性打造一个生态系统,使零售板块面向未来。
+ 经验丰富,面向未来的多元化房地产企业。
CAPL对全资拥有的灵活工作空间运营商Bridge+的战略投资,将为这些不断变化的居住者战略(即减密,灵活和可扩展空间需求)的时代,提供核心+灵活解决方案。目前有9个Bridge+ 网点在中国,新加坡和印度投入运营,未来24个月还将推出20个Bridge+ 网点。CAPL配套办公和商业园区的投资组合,其足迹遍布多个核心地理位置,也使CAPL能够捕捉那些希望降低平均空间成本的租户的中心辐射型需求。虽然国际旅游禁令给住宿板块带来压力,但CAPL以服务式住宅 (SR) 和租赁住房占主导的投资组合的盈亏平衡入住率较低,并针对长租,这有助于提供稳定的入住率,减轻对住宿投资组合的影响(2020上半年的RevPAU同比下降43%,入住率约为50%)。此外,随着投资者确认了SR资产类别的价值主张和弹性,迄今为止,CAPL成功地签署了6,500个密钥。

 
 
消极方面

– 2020上半年,受住宿(-82.5%)和零售(-25.3%)板块的拖累,息税前利润同比下降71%。
针对零售租户的3亿新元租金豁免,遏制措施以及旅行和流动限制等,对这两个板块的影响最大。息税前利润下降主要是因为2020上半年投资物业的公允价值亏损,与去年同期的收益相比,以及资产回收的投资组合收益较低。尽管经营环境疲软,但CAPL仍设法从经营活动中产生了3亿新元的净现金。资产负债表依然强劲,拥有140亿新元的现金和未动用的信贷安排。合理的实施脚本股息计划,也将有助于为集团节省3.88亿新元的现金。

 
 
前景

越南住宅库存持续走低,受审批流程较长的阻碍。CAPL已在越南获得了3–4个项目。然而,漫长的审批流程使项目的推出陷入停滞,阻碍了集团补充库存的能力

CAPL 仍致力于实现其30亿新元的年度撤资目标。鉴于不确定性,2020上半年的资产回收活动一直较为温和,而随着市场企稳和投资活动的回归,下半年应有所回升。CAPL的策略仍然是剥离非核心资产,同时实现更均衡的资产分布 – CAPL可能会削减较重的资产类别,如零售 (占AUM的28%) 和商业 (占AUM的21%)。

 
 
维持买入评级,并下调目标价至3.82新元 (先前目标价为3.94新元)。

由于考虑到额外的租金回扣和住宿板块的复苏比预期更长,我们将2020财年末的收益削减了2.1%。我们的目标价,是基于RNAV的20%的折扣,在纳入了基于脚本股息计划的扩大股票份额后,从3.94新元削减至3.82新元,降幅为3.0%。我们相信,CAPL多元华的投资组合和作为经验老练的房地产企业,使其处于有利地位,可缓解近期的逆风。

 

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