研报 | 中国策略:中长期外国资金将持续流入

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北京时间2019年3月1日,MSCI公布了提高A股纳入因子(Inclusion Factors)的结果;MSCI决定分三步提升A股在MSCI 新兴市场指数中的纳入因子,使纳入因子从5%增至20%。

 

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• A股纳入MSCI新兴市场指数的纳入因素分三步提高至20%,预计将带来超过500亿美元的资金进入A股市场。
• 2019多家指数公司将A股纳入其旗舰指数,外资对A股的影响不断加深,陆股通将成为主要投资途径。
• 外资当前偏好业绩增长确定性强的消费板块,未来对新兴产业配置比例有望提升

A股提升在MSCI新兴市场指数的纳入因子将分三步进行,预计将带来逾500亿美元增量资金。提升A股纳入因子的三步分别为: (1)2019年5月,大盘A股纳入因子从5%增加至10%,同时以10%的纳入因子纳入12只创业板股;(2)8月,大盘A股纳入因子从10%增加至15%;(3)11月,大盘A股纳入因子从15%增加至20%,同时将153只中盘股和另外15只创业板股以20%的纳入因子纳入MSCI指数。

以上三步纳入过程实施完成后,MSCI新兴市场指数的成分股中预计将包含253只大盘A股,153只中盘股和27只创业板股票,以上A股占MSCI新兴市场指数的权重预计约为3.3%,根据当前跟踪MSCI新兴市场指数的资金约为1.8万亿美元,此次提升预计将为A股市场带来超过500亿美元增量资金。参照去年两次外资流入,外资或将在纳入因子提升正式生效前的1-2个月提前布局。

2019多家指数公司将A股纳入其旗舰指数,外资对A股的影响不断加深。

2018年9月27日,全球第二大指数提供商富时罗素宣布,将把A股纳入其旗舰指数,第一阶段的纳入因子为25%,分三个时点生效,分别为2019年6月24日,2019年9月23日,2020年3月23日。
根据预期,从今年6月至2020年3月,来自富时罗素的海外增量资金总额累计约为100亿美元左右,届时富时新兴市场指数中A股权重将达到约5.5%;同时,在接下来的3至4年内,随着纳入因子的增加,将有额外的500亿美金进入A股。

2018年12月5日,全球最大的指数提供商标普道琼斯指数公司正式对外宣布将可以通过沪港通、深港通机制进行交易的合格中国A股,纳入其有新兴市场分类的全球基准指数。纳入将自2019年9月23日市场开盘前生效。

2019年1月,标普道琼斯指数初筛名单出炉,1241只A股入选。迄今标普道琼斯指数公司尚未明确具体的资金金额。

2019年1月31日,彭博正式确认,将以人民币计价的中国国债和政策性银行债券将从今年4月起被纳入彭博巴克莱全球综合指数,并将在20个月内分步完成。初步估算,加入该指数后,预计将有1000亿美元流入中国债券市场。

彭博巴克莱全球综合指数是国际主流债券指数之一,彭博公司也是国际金融市场影响力较大的三大债券指数供应商之一,另外两家是富时罗素公司和摩根大通银行。
此次被完全纳入全球综合指数后,人民币计价的中国债券将成为继美元、欧元、日元之后的第四大计价货币债券。根据截至2019年1月24日的统计数据,将有363只中国债券被纳入彭博巴克莱全球综合指数,完全纳入后,将在该指数54.07万亿美元的市值中占比达6.03%。

就近期外资流入和流出而言,继今年1月互联机制开放以来,沪港通每月净流入量创下新高后,2月土地和港口交通每月净流入量继续快速流入A股。自2019年初以来,陆港资金净流入总额达到1210.8亿元。

截至2018年12月,境外机构和个人持有境内股票资产的总市值约为1.15万亿元,占A股总市值的2.20%。境外机构和个人持有的境内债券资产约为人民币1.71万亿元,占人民币债券总市值的2.93%。
我们预计外资将在2019年继续流进。QFII和RQFII配额近年来基本保持不变。在中国政府将每日陆港通配额提高4倍至520亿元人民币后,陆港通的平均使用率已降至1%(图6),使资本有足够的空间流进中国市场。沪港通将成为主要的投资渠道。

外资当前偏好业绩增长确定性强的消费板块,未来对新兴产业配置比例有望提升。当前陆港通资金持仓占比居前的行业为食品,非银行金融 ,银行,配置比例分别为20.18 %、10.01、9. 44 %和 9.36;超配的行业有食品、 家电、交运和餐饮旅游,超配比例分别为 14. 20 %、6.38 %、1. 52 %和 1. 30 %,外资当前仍偏好业绩增长确定性强的消费板块。未来随MSCI将A股的中盘股和创业板纳入,新兴产业板块的配置比例有望提升。
 

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我们建议增持中国A股。A股将从这些长期外国投资资本流入中受益。
涵盖中国A股的部分ETF包括:

 

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