研报 | 新加坡银行策略:股价比全球金融危机期间

2020年3月19日星展集团控股:增持 (维持)
彭博代码:DBS SP | 收盘价:SGD 17.90
预测DIV:SGD 1.32 | 目标价:SGD 27.30
历史收益率:6.87% | 总回报:59.89%华侨银行集团:增持 (维持)
彭博代码:OCBC SP | 收盘价:SGD 8.49
预测DIV:SGD 0.56 | 目标价 :SGD 12.10
历史收益率:6.24% | 总回报:49.12%大华银行集团:增持 (维持)
彭博代码:UOB SP | 收盘价:SGD 19.20
预测DIV:SGD 1.30 | 目标价:SGD 27.80
历史收益率:6.77% | 总回报:51.56%   

 

 

摘要

 

抛售压力迫使银行业的股价低于全球金融危机 (GFC) 的低市净率 (P/B)。即使在重压之下,银行还可以支付股息。上一次的削减股息是在2008年全球金融危机期间,当时的一级资本比率为12.0%,而目前为15.3% (在引入CET-1 比率之前)。银行股目前的股息收益率超过6.5%。对新加坡银行业维持增持评级。最近的价格疲软,为投资者提供了一个能以诱人的收益率入场的好时机。

 

 

银行股面临抛售压力海峡时报指数 (STI) 最近几天跳水大跌,年初迄今累计下跌近25%。银行股领跌,占基准指数的比重超过了30%。受COVID-19 疫情蔓延,加上降息和油价战争的三重威胁,继续给银行类股价施压,DBS和UOB的股价同期跌幅超过了STI。

随着全球供应链的中断导致流动性紧缩,COVID-19 的蔓延打击了商业情绪。受影响最大的将是中小型企业 (SMEs),如果就业水平下降,其次将是住房贷款。然而,我们并没有观察到这些行业的资产质量出现自发性恶化。美联储为应对COVID-19 给经济带来的影响而采取的降息措施,将给NIMs 带来压力,但其连锁效应预计将在1至2个季度内才显现。这场让人联想起2016年油价崩盘的油价战争,将会看到对资产质量产生轻微的影响,因为这三家银行在前几期,通过减少对该行业的风险敞口,并计入必要的拨备,已轮流清理了它们的油气贷款账面。银行对油气行业的风险敞口已缩减至其贷款账面的2% 以下。

我们对银行的收益进行了以下的压力测试:(i) 将预期津贴或信贷成本提高一倍,从25个基点上调至50个基点;(ii) 将预测的NIM削减20个基点,我们可以观察到税后净利将恶化高达33%,这使我们回到4年前(2016财年)的税后净利水平。

随着股价的大幅跳水,本地银行当前的市净率(P/B)估值相当吸引。OCBC 和UOB 的交易价格均处于2002年以来的历史低点,而DBS 在2008年全球金融危机中只有6个月的交易低于当前水平,当时它直接卷入了雷曼兄弟的迷你债券事件中

 

不太可能削减股息
除了诱人的估值外,银行还向投资者提供极具吸引的股息收益率。在2019年四季度以及全年一系列良好业绩的支持下,这三家银行在2019财年的股息收益率较2018财年有所增加。CET-1 比率的改善也能提振投资者摆脱削减股息的可能性。银行上一次削减股息发生在全球金融危机期间。然而,当前的形势不能与全球金融危机相提并论,因为在当时,银行的信贷质量受到压力,致使全球金融系统崩溃。目前,这三家本地银行的CET-1 级比率均维持在14.0%以上,远高于巴塞尔协议III规定的10.5% 的监管要求。目前的CET-1 比率甚至比2008全球金融危机的一级资本比率还要高,而当时CET-1 比率尚未引入。

 

 

结论: 对新加坡银行业维持增持评级。虽然新加坡经济看似前景黯淡,但由于当地银行体系的完整性仍未受损,各银行已做好了抵御逆风的准备。最近的价格疲软,为投资者提供了诱人的收益率,同时还提供了一个获取银行业风险敞口的机遇。
 
 
 
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