美股交易研报——微软公司(Microsoft )

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微软公司(Microsoft )

微软公司经营一系列软件产品、服务和设备的开发、许可和支持业务。公司业务部门包括生产力和业务流程、智能云和更多个人计算。公司产品包括操作系统;跨设备效率型应用;服务器应用、业务解决方案应用;桌面和服务器管理工具;软件开发工具、视频游戏以及计算机系统集成和开发人员的培训和认证。公司还设计、制造和销售包括与自身云端产品配套的个人计算机、平板电脑、娱乐游戏机、手机、其他智能设备和相关配件在内的各类设备。公司提供一系列服务,包括为客户提供软件、服务、平台和内容的云端解决方案,并提供解决方案支持和咨询服务。公司还为全球观众展示线上广告。

资料来源:汤森路透

 

投资策略

微软公司于1 月31 日公布其第二季度财报,根据非公认会计原则核算的每股收益为0.96 美元,同比增长20%,超出平均预期的0.86 美元。但是,因为公认会计原则不允许排除特殊情况,由于特朗普总统的《减税与就业法案》,公司需公布根据公认会计原则核算的每股收益,即0.82 美元亏损。因此,微软公司股价昨日一度跌至约每股85.00 美元,收市前略有回升,收市价94.18美元。微软公司收益实际上优于预期,并在主要领域都显示为大幅增长,如(名“Azure”的)云计算的同比收入增长率为98%。鉴于此类主要领域内的
持续增长,我们认为,无论微软公司股价是否上涨,公司未来都会出现进一步上扬。

 

近期价格走势

云计算对于众多科技公司是一个巨大的福音。预计2018 年全球公共云服务行业收入将从2017 年的2,602 亿美元增至
3,058 亿美元。

除了这个获利丰厚的市场以外,微软公司拟为其Azure 产品开拓更大的市场。亚马逊的AWS 是市场领导者,但目前正在不断向微软公司割让市场份额。据称,Azure 的市场份额从16%上升至20%,而AWS 则从68%下跌为62%。

微软公司还公布其智能云业务收入增长为78 亿美元,同比增长15%。Azure收入增长98%,标志着Azure 的收入在连续10 个季度近乎翻倍。仅Azure 的收入就在微软公司公布的289 亿美元总收入中占37 亿美元,因此,我们认为Azure 尚有收入大幅增长和为微软公司贡献收入的空间。

同样,由于预计这一板块将持续增长,微软公司仍将处于领导地位且市场份额可能增加,我们认为这一获利丰厚的板块仍具价值。

 

Office 365继续上升

除了Azure,微软公司通过Office 365对其传统业务的转型继续推动其利润增长。公司将Microsoft Office产品的传统许可业务转化为云端订阅模式,这一转变似乎颇为有效。其生产力和业务流程收入同比增长24%,达到90亿美元,其中Office 365 的商业收入同比增长了41%。截至2017年年底,微软公司公布Office 365订阅用户数量超过了永久许可量,且预计到2019年,会有超出三分之二的Office 用户成为365的订阅用户。

Microsoft Office仍然是其商业帝国中不可或缺的一部分,通过向订阅模式的转型,微软公司保证了经常性收入的主要来源。根据收入来源继续增长的态势,我们看好微软公司营收和利润持续增长的能力。

 

技术因素

微软公司股价自2016年6月以来,根据在每次盘整时推动价格的20天和60天移动平均值,以稳步增长态势移动。20天和60天移动平均值是微软公司每次在突出领域再次出现牛市势头时盘整抛售的一个跳板。

20180328101714

尽管二月初出现了近期波动性加大事件,但是60天移动平均值再次阻止了抛售并将股价恢复为上升趋势。微软公司曾一度从96.07的最高位下跌超过12%。然而,自2018年2月9日以来,强劲的牛市使得微软公司估价脱离60天移动平均值,成功恢复了上升趋势。

此外,股价仍然保持更高的高位(HH)和更高的低位(HL)的上升趋势。 自此,股价平稳停留在20天和60天移动平均值之上,预示着后续的强劲势头。对于本轮上涨行情,买家应以100作为心理整数关口目标。

进一步而言,预计20天和60天移动平均值会继续提供一个价格平台,以阻止和扭转抛售。

 

结论

由于1)云计算和Azure;2 )Office 365 订阅;和3)微软公司增长前景的估价,我们看好微软公司的表现。因此,我们认为股价被低估,且近期的恢复态势预示着股价继续上扬。

微软公司

IT 行业
代码:MSFT
货币:美元
最后价:94.18
时限:3-6个月
止蚀价:88.73
目标价:105.00
买入价:94.18
彭博综合目标价:103.56

关键字:新加坡股票研报,美股,美股研报,微软公司(Microsoft ),新加坡股票开户,免费开户,在线开设新加坡股票开户,新加坡证券,新加坡券商

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