新加坡胜科工业集团 (Sembcorp Industries Ltd)

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投资概要

 

2018年三季度营收超出预期,但由于SMM亏损扩大,净利润未能实现。

公用事业中国表现良好,而公用事业新加坡则遭受点火价差薄弱所拖累。

由于SGPL 的亏损再次扩大,公用事业印度的盈利环比有所减少。

海事部门继续拖累集团的业绩。

由于SMM的长期亏损,我们将2018财年末的每股盈利从新元17.7分降至新元17.1分。在纳入SMM以较低的目标价新元1.65后,基于分类加总估值法,我们维持买入评级的建议,并下调目标价至新元3.60 (先前是新元3.70)。

 

积极方面

公用事业中国的业务表现良好:2018年三季度,来自中国的净利润达到2180万新元 (同比增长10.1%),主要是由于长治水处理厂和松藻火电厂的设备负荷系数 (PLF) 提高的贡献所致。

 

消极方面

公用事业新加坡的业务下滑:2018年三季度,来自新加坡的净利润为4650万新元(同比下降9.3%)。据管理层表示,由于点火价差较低以及运营支出增加,使其批发业务受到负利润率的影响。由于蒸汽、水和废物转化能源业务的贡献,其零售部门的利润率略有增长。

公用事业印度仍保持盈利,但SGPL 再次出现亏损:2018年三季度,来自印度业务的净利润为2900万新元 (2018二季度为:3900万新元),这是由于SGPL的亏损扩大,抵消了SGIL的出色表现,见图1。SGIL的净利润激增是由于较高的电力售价以及与O&M 承包商的结算 (约为1900万新元)。2018年二季度,SGPL 的实际亏损为300万新元,但被成本逆转为1100万新元所抵消。然而,2018年三季度的成本扩大主要归因于季节性因素 (水力发电供应增加) 和煤炭价格上涨。煤炭价格的涨幅超过了SGPL的现货费率。同时,预计SEIL 的其中一个单位将于今年四季度关闭,进行设备检测。但集团已投保业务中断保险 (如果停工超过21天,保险将涵盖净利润)。

海事部门继续拖累集团的业绩:胜科海事 (SMM) 报告净亏损为2980万新元。净订单量继续下降 (2018三季度为64亿新元,对比2017财年(重申)为84亿新元)。工作量将保持在低水平,而利润率将被压缩。运营亏损预计还将持续几个季度。

 

前景

在管理层指导下,公用事业印度将在2018财年实现全年盈利。然而,2018年四季度往往是一个风力较弱的季节,预计在下个季度会出现一些中断供应。因此,印度的表现将会疲弱。另一方面,预计英国的电力储备将在2018年四季度和2019年一季度产生利润,这可部分地抵消此前发生的整体亏损。同时,由于市场状况仍然疲软,我们预计短期内SMM 的盈利能力不会出现好转。

 

投资行动

维持买入评级,下调目标价至新元3.6

由于SMM的盈利能力持续疲软,我们将2018财年末的每股盈利从新元17.7分降至新元17.1分。在纳入SMM以较低的目标价新元1.65后,基于分类加总估值法,我们维持买入评级的建议,并下调目标价至新元3.60 (先前是新元3.70)。

 

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