股市研报 | 新加坡银行每月快讯

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12月份的国内贷款同比增速放缓至3.0%。受商业贷款同比增长4.1%的推动,消费贷款同比增长1.5%,增速为12年来最慢。

2月份国内存款同比增长3.5%,受定期存款同比增长10.5%的推动,为两年来最快的增长。

2018年5月达到峰值后,抵押贷款增长继续放缓至2.0%。

香港的贷款增长在10月暴跌至2.0%之后,在12月份同比增长恢复至4.4%。

1月份3个月SIBOR 达到11年来的高位1.891%,环比上涨0.54个基点。

对新加坡的银行业维持增持评级。

 

新加坡12月份的国内贷款持平,同比增长3.0% (11月同比增长为2.8%)

12月份的国内贷款增长受商业贷款增长4.1%的推动,主要归因于住房和建筑同比加速增长至12.5%。由于现有项目的贷款减少,这是两年半以来的最高水平。然而,由于房产降温措施开始生效,我们预计新建筑项目的商业贷款增长和抵押贷款的消费贷款增长,将在2019年逐渐放缓。与此同时,消费贷款同比增速减弱至1.5% (为12年来最低) ,主要是由于在2018年5月同比增长达到4.8%的峰值后,抵押贷款持续放缓至2.0%。汽车贷款同比增长放缓至5.5%,而2018年的月度平均值同比增长为7.6%。我们预计,2019财年末银行贷款增长放缓至6-7%,低于2018财年末的8-9%。

 

新加坡的12月国内存款同比增长3.5%,为一年来最快的增速 (CASA – 同比增长0.5%;定期存款同比增长10.5%)

由于利率不断上升,金融行业自2018年8月以来,一直在大幅增加定期存款。新加坡的定期存款录得两年来的最高增幅,同比增长为10.5%,而2018财年的月度平均增幅为1.6%。政府和法定机构的存款增长同比飙升9.2%,为两年来最快。非银行金融机构增长7.9%,是自2017年6月以来的最快增幅。随着金融业在昂贵的定期存款中增加,这可能导致短期内的净息差受到挤压,但随着贷款以较高的利率重新定价,银行将逐步调整其存款储备,净息差将逐渐扩大。12月份定期存款和CASA存款的市场份额分别为39.3% 和60.7%。

 

香港12月份的贷款增长同比回升至4.4%
12月份,香港的房地产市场继续放缓,住宅销售和购买价值以及成交量环比分别下跌7.5% 和21.8%。香港的住宅价格已开始回落 (见图7)。自2018年7月达到峰值以来,同年12月份的价格已经疲软至7.5%。然而,利率的上升态势应会支持香港银行业的净息差。

1月份的3个月SIBOR 达到11年来的高位1.891%,环比上涨0.54个基点。

3个月SIBOR 涨幅为1.891%, 超过了上个月1.886%的高点。3个月SOR 环比扩大5.45个基点至1.973%。在2018财年,由年初至今SIBOR 和SOR 分别上涨76个基点和92个基点。同时,新加坡的储蓄率维持在0.16%不变。由于与浮动和固定利率挂钩的贷款分别需要数月和数年才能重新定价,即使加息暂停,我们仍将继续看到净息差扩张。因此,利率上升带来的很大一部分资金尚未流入新加坡各银行的账薄,预计2019年及以后还会有更多的资金流入。
 

投资行动

对新加坡银行业维持增持评级。我们对该行业在未来两个季度继续扩大净息差和股息不断提高作为股价的催化剂仍持乐观态度。银行业的股息支付率接近5%。预计到2019年底,大华银行,星展银行和华侨银行的贷款增速将放缓至6-7%左右,而2018年末则为8-9%左右。房地产降温措施,利率上升以及全球经济增长放缓,将成为贷款需求的逆风。该行业还有约为5%的股息收益率来支撑。

对银行来说,关键的催化剂在于净息差的扩张,它依赖于不断上升的利率。我们相信,新加坡各银行能够将资金成本保持在足够低的水平,从而在未来几个季度可实现净息差的连续扩张。净息差扩张的长期趋势,将抵消贷款增长中的一些不利因素。

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