研报 | 新加坡煤炭每月快讯:没有迹象显示中国放宽进口限制

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2019年4月25日

Golden Energy & Resources 买入 (维持)

彭博代码:GER SP | 收盘价:SGD 0.215

预测DIV:SGD 0.010 | 目标价:SGD 0.300

总回报:44.2%

Geo Energy Resources 增持 (维持)

彭博代码:GERL SP | 收盘价:SGD 0.177

预测DIV:SGD 0.004 | 目标价:SGD 0.215

总回报:23.7%

 

中国

2019年一季度新增产能1.44亿吨

国家发展和改革委员会及有关部门批准29座总产能达到1.77亿吨的煤矿恢复开采工作,其中1.44亿吨为2019年一季度新增产能。这些煤矿主要分布在华北和西北地区,生产动力煤。

预计国内铁路煤炭运力增长30%

2019年4月,中国铁路经济和规划研究院宣布,到2020年,铁路煤炭运输能力将增加6.5亿吨,达到28亿吨 (占全国煤炭总产量的75%) 或增长30%。继续巩固山西,陕西和内蒙古西部的煤炭生产。

 

印尼

采取更坚定的措施确保履行国内义务

根据标准普尔环球普氏能源资讯对印尼煤炭开采协会执行董事的采访,政府首次希望对煤炭产量实施严密的控制。然而,由于地方政府之间缺乏协调,在政策的执行方面存在困难。2019年的DMO 要求可能要比2018年的配额提高25%。

 

结合进口限制措施,中国增加国内煤炭的供应

仍然对海运煤炭实施限制。除澳大利亚煤炭外,印尼在中国东北港口的清关工作已于2019年4月起被延迟。中国一直在降低对煤炭进口的依赖,去年,煤炭进口量达到2.81亿吨,为5年来的最高峰值。国内煤炭需求正以温和的速度增长,与中国整体经济增长同步。供应和运输能力的战略性增长是为了弥补煤炭进口减少造成的短缺,并缩小陆运和海运煤炭之间的价格差距。但是,对煤炭生产和消费的战略性限制将在国内继续进行。

 

整个印尼模式对价格逆风的缓解是有限的
煤炭销售价格对业务的运营和绩效起着更为关键的作用。鉴于矿商现正遭受微薄的利润,目前的不利价格妨碍了产量的提高。DMO 规定了销售配额和价格上限。因此,它对缓解运营困难带来的压力几乎没有帮助。
 
 

煤矿股票每月更新

Golden Energy and Resources :(目标价:0.30新元 / 买入)

预计2019年产量达到2500万吨 (同比增长10.6%),预计现金成本将恢复至25美元/吨 (同比下降8.8 % ),提高产量和降低现金成本可以抵消价格的逆风

Geo Energy Resources:(目标价:0.22新元/ 增持)

预计2019年产量将持平在800万吨,今年的现金成本将略有下降,可能会调动现金以收购矿山
 
 

投资行动

我们仍然看好煤矿行业。预计今年两家煤矿企业的产能将实现适度的增长,而预计2019年的平均煤炭价格 (4,200 GAR:39.5美元/吨)将比2018年下降10%。同时,由于剥离比率的正常化,现金成本也将下降。因此,由于利润率的提高,整体业绩可以略有改善。我们对煤炭行业维持增持评级。
 
 

本文为英文翻译版本,仅供参考,一切请以英文版本为准。如果有想了解更多全球股市资讯,请关注微信公众共 “辉立资本新加坡” (SGPSPL)。同时提供在线免费开设股票账户,一个账户轻松交易美股,港股,新加坡股

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