新加坡股研报 | 竞争激烈的工业板块近期趋势

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文章来源:新交所(SGX)

工业板块涵盖制造、工程和运输等多个行业。由于通胀担忧在 2 月初卷土重来,该板块的基准指数在 2018 年年初至今略微上涨,在 2017 年涨势的基础上盘整。

过去 12 个月新加坡市值最大的 10 只资本货物和运输股的表现出现分化。资本货物股年初至今的平均总回报率为 4.8%,12 个月平均总回报率为 14.7%,而运输股 2018 年年初至今和过去 12 个月的平均回报率则持平。

资本货物和运输股具有业务上的相同点和不同点。利润率通常是资本货物和运输股的一个主要推动因素,两个子板块的产品和服务均面临更加激烈的竞争。

2018 年截至 5 月 23 日,MSCI 全球工业指数上涨了 1.1%。同时,亚太区工业指数的涨幅稳定在 0.3%。

工业板块是很多交易所的传统板块,规模庞大。整体而言,工业板块占新交所全部上市股票总数的大约三分之一,以及新交所全部上市股票总市值的约五分之一。

在海峡时报指数内,属于 GICS® 工业板块的 10 只股票中有六只是资本货物股,有四只是运输股。工业股的第三大子板地位是商业和专业服务,总市值相对较小,为 90 亿新元。在新交所上市的 10 大资本货物股的总市值达到了 1,620 亿新元,而 10 大运输股的总市值为 370 亿新元。

 

资本货物和运输股在多个方面具有相同点和不同点

资本货物一般包括多元化的工业企业集团、从事非住宅建设的制造商和公司,而运输股则专注于提供运输或港口服务。虽然从事不同的商业活动,然而两者都对全球增长和贸易具敏感度。资本货物股对采购经理人指数更为敏感,而运输股则普遍对整体经济增长更为敏感。

资本货物和运输股最常见的主题是竞争。鉴于其在全球股票市场上占据的巨大比重,这也不足为奇。2017 年 MSCI 全球资本货物指数的利润率比 MSCI 全球指数低约三分之一。这两个板块的企业都致力于实现业务流的多元化、利用数字技术并提高运营效率,以提高利润率。

某些资本货物和运输股已采取转型措施,如中远海运国际 (Cosco Shipping International) 和新航工程 (SIA Engineering Company)。中远海运国际去年已出售其造船业务。为提高生产力、简化流程和提高竞争力,新航工程已踏上转型之旅。

油价影响资本货物及运输子板块。并非所有运输股都与油价保持高度反向关系, 2018 年截至 5 月 23 日,油价已上涨了 19.6%。其他运营成本(如工资增长、就业市场紧俏和遵守法规等)也对运输股产生影响,因此成本的精简或优化一直是共同的主题。

平均而言,资本货物股的波幅高于运输股。MSCI 全球资本货物指数的 90 天、180 天、 12 个月和 10 年历史波幅均高于 MSCI 全球运输指数。10 大资本货物股平均 5 年 beta 值(与海峡时报指数相比较衡量波动性的一个指标)是 10 大运输股的近两倍。
 

近期表现比较

最近 12 个月,新加坡 10 大资本货物股的平均总回报率为 14.7%,而 10 大运输股则平均下跌了 0.2%。10 大资本货物股的平均表现优于 MSCI 全球资本货物指数 (+9.3%),而 10 大运输股的表现则逊于 MSCI 全球运输指数 (+13.6%)。

过去 12 个月平均总回报率的差异与周期性增长的上升和 beta 值较高的资本货物板块回报率高于运输板块的走势一致。然而,过去三年来,两个板块的平均表现较为一致,并符合 2015 年至 2016 年底全球增长和贸易相对放缓的走势。

10 大资本货物股和运输股列于下表。
 

 

市值最大的 10 只

资本货物股 

新交所代码 市值(百万新元) 5 月 23 日收盘价 年初至今总回报率 (%) 1 年总回报率 % 3 年总回报率 % 股息收益率 (%) 5 年 Beta 值
怡和控股 (Jardine Matheson Hldgs)* J36 64,050 64.680 9.2 3.7 15.0 2.5 0.4
怡和策略 (Jardine Strategic Hldgs)* J37 55,594 37.310 -4.6 -10.0 11.0 0.9 0.5
吉宝企业 (Keppel Corp) BN4 14,636 8.080 11.8 27.0 4.0 2.7 0.9
新科工程 (ST Engineering) S63 10,734 3.440 8.6 -2.8 9.8 4.4 0.6
胜科工业 (Sembcorp Industries) U96 5,354 3.000 -0.4 -4.4 -21.3 1.7 0.8
胜科海事 (Sembcorp Marine) S51 4,635 2.220 21.2 30.8 -19.5 0.9 1.0
扬子江船业 (Yangzijiang Shipbuilding) BS6 4,088 1.030 -27.0 -13.1 -20.7 4.5 1.3
联合工程 (United Engineers) U04 1,791 2.810 8.0 8.4 15.9 1.4 0.8
中远海运国际 (Cosco Shipping Intl) F83 1,008 0.450 20.0 66.7 -13.8 1.3
集永成 (Chip Eng Seng Corp) C29 587 0.945 1.1 40.8 35.7 4.2 0.9
平均       4.8 14.7 1.6 2.6 0.9

*以美元交易的怡和控股和怡和策略显示的是新元等值数据。资料来源:彭博社和新交所 StockFacts(数据截至 2018 年 5 月 23 日)。

 

市值最大的 10 只

运输股

新交所代码 市值(百万新元) 5 月 23 日收盘价 年初至今总回报率 (%) 1 年总回报率 % 3 年总回报率 % 股息收益率 (%) 5 年 Beta 值
新加坡航空公司 (SIA) C6L 13,611 11.510 7.9 19.9 9.1 3.5 0.4
新翔集团 (SATS) S58 5,915 5.300 1.9 8.1 77.2 3.2 0.3
康福德高企业 (ComfortDelGro) C52 5,064 2.340 21.4 0.5 -10.3 4.4 0.5
和记港口信托 (Hutchison Port Holdings Trust) NS8U 3,808 0.325 -17.9 -15.2 -35.6 8.1 0.6
新航工程 (SIA Engineering Co) S59 3,690 3.300 5.4 -11.9 -6.9 4.0 0.4
新邮政 (Singapore Post) S08 3,010 1.330 7.6 3.9 -20.9 2.6 0.5
吉宝讯通 (Keppel Telecom & Transport) K11 872 1.560 1.6 -7.5 3.3 2.2 0.5
新捷运 (SBS Transit) S61 819 2.630 6.4 0.7 50.3 2.2 0.5
辉联集团 (Vibrant Group) BIP 229 0.330 -12.0 -9.8 -22.1 4.6 0.7
新加坡船务 (Singapore Shipping Corp) S19 120 0.275 -8.3 9.4 -5.7 3.5 0.4
平均       1.4 -0.2 3.8 3.8 0.5

*以美元交易的和记港口信托显示的是新元等值数据。资料来源:彭博社和新交所 StockFacts(数据截至 2018 年 5 月 23 日)。请注意,此表格不包括交投不活跃的泛洋 (Pan Ocean Co)。

关键字:新加坡股票研报,新加坡股,新加坡研报,新加坡账户,交易新加坡股票,新加坡股票开户,免费开户,在线开设新加坡股票开户,新加坡证券,新加坡券商,投资组合,新加坡证券交易所(SGX),泰国酿酒

文章来源:新加坡证券交易所

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