新加坡股票 | 凯德置地有限公司(Capitaland)——经常性收入稳定

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收入和净利润与我们的预测相符。

在中国这个CAPL最大的市场上, 同类型商场的承租销售增长稳定在6.2% 。

2018年一季度,由于待售的单位减少,中国住宅的销售减少了一半。只有4% 的单位尚未出售。

服务式公寓的收益同比增长了5%,延续了2017年四季度的势头。

维持增持评级,目标价不变仍为新元4.19。

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积极方面

在中国这个CAPL最大的市场上,同类型商场的承租销售增长稳定在6.2%。一线和二线城市的销售增长高于低线城市。据估值计算,中国占CAPL的零售资产总额的60%。在日本和马来西亚的小型房产市场也出现了低至中位的个位数增长。新加坡是唯一出现轻微负销售增长的地区。

2018年一季度,由于待售的单位减少,中国住宅的销售减少了一半。只有4%的单位尚未出售。由于可供出售的单位数量减少了,这季度出售了998个单位,其中一半是在一年前售出的。截至2018财年末,将有6,000 个单位发售,我们预计在未来几个季度的销售额将会回升。

服务式公寓的收益同比增长了5%,延续了2017年四季度的势头。尽管来自Ascott REIT的表现疲弱,但在欧洲,新加坡和中国强劲表现的带动下,集团整体收益增长了5%。按房产价值计算,中国 (40%) 和东南亚/澳洲 (30%) 是集团最大的市场。

消极方面

新加坡商场的承租销售增长 (按价值计算,占零售投资组合的36%,仅次于中国的第二大市场) 仍然疲弱。同类型商场的承租销售保持平稳,轻微负增长0.1%,而2017财年的增长为0.9%。销售普遍落后于今年前两个月的一般零售销售指数,该指数平均增长为6.5% (ex-Motor)。

前景

CAPL的资产中超过80% 为投资性房地产(主要是在新加坡和中国) 这有助于经常性收入,CAPL的盈利前景保持稳定。预计在未来9个月内,在中国价值达到106亿人民币和在越南价值3.43亿新元的住宅销售将竣工并完成交付,这将为2018财年的盈利提供进一步的支持。CAPL的一线和二线商场的零售销售正稳定以中个位数增长,随着入住率的提高,我们预计于2017财年在中国启动的三个新莱佛士城市综合开发项目,将推动2018财年的经常性收入增长。我们估计,仅经常性收入部分的年化营业税后净利将达到约7.4亿新元,足够支付2017财年每股派息12分的1.5倍。
 

投资活动

维持增持评级,目标价不变仍为新元4.19。

随着目标价保持不变,我们维持增持评级。我们的目标价转化成资产净值比率为0.93。

 

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