新加坡股票研报 | 凯德商务产业信托(CapitaLand Commercial Trust)

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NPI 和DPU 在我们的预测范围内。

甲级写字楼的租金继续复苏,2018年一季度环比上涨3.2% 。

2018年尚余的最低限额的租约到期 (占总租金收入的5% )。

全额再融资的债务在2018年到期。增加融资成本是我们唯一主要的关注。

升级至增持级别,目标价上调至新元1.88 (原来的目标价为新元1.80)。

 

积极方面

甲级写字楼的租金持续回升,2018年一季度环比增长3.2% 。据CBRE数据显示,租金自2017年二季度触底以来,现在已经上涨了8.4% ,达到9.70新元/每平方英尺。(图 1)

2018年尚余的最低限额租约到期。在2018年一季度签署的96,000平方英尺的新租赁和续约租赁中,CCT只有5% (占总租金收入) 的租赁将于2018年到期。尽管集团没有透露官方的租金回归数据,但这季度即将到期的租金却在新承诺租金区间的较低端。随着2018年剩余的租约即将到期,现在租赁续约的风险大大的降低。

从现在起,2019 年到期的租赁将受益于预期的租金上涨。我们预计,随着写字楼供应的减少和需求的改善,未来两年的现货租金将继续上涨。因此,与今年到期的租约相比,我们对2019年到期的31%(占总租金)的租约就不那么担忧了。

全额再融资债务将于2018年到期。今年没有更多的再融资风险。鉴于利率不断上升,管理层一直积极为在2018/2019年到期的债务再融资。占总债务中,只有8%的债务将于2019年到期。我们注意到,较高比例的总债务 (90%) 现在以固定利率来套期保值,相比过去两个财政年度的总债务普遍为80%。其结果是,平均债务成本小幅上升至2.7% (比2017财年上升0.1% )。

 

消极方面

我们主要关注的是融资成本的增加。上个月,RCS Trust (持有Raffles City) 以3.2%的利率发行了7年期的MTN。我们注意到,去年6月份,RCS的其他类似为期6年的MTN,以较低的2.6%利率发行。尽管如此,管理层认为银行的息差/利率仍然保持相当稳定。

 

前景

租赁续约和利率再融资风险已大幅降低,今年仅剩下5%的租赁和零债务到期。因此,DPU 的前景稳定。目前,来自AST2的入住率增加,达到了90.8%,这是潜在的收益增长。我们唯一的主要关注是杠杆率高达37.9%,这可能会对未来的收购产生抑制作用。尽管如此,短期增长的动力来自于AST2 (2017年9月收购) 和将于2021年落成的CapitaSpring。

 

投资活动

升级至增持级别,上调目标价至新元1.88

随着租金不断走强,至2019年的再融资风险大幅减少,并且负租金回归也没有如我们预期的那么严重,我们修正2019财年的DPU,上调至3%,同时相应地上调目标价至新元1.88 。我们的目标价转化为2018财年末的收益率是4.6%,而资产净值为1.04倍。

关键字:新加坡股票研报,新加坡股,新加坡研报,新加坡账户,交易新加坡股票,新加坡股票开户,免费开户,在线开设新加坡股票开户,新加坡证券,新加坡券商,投资组合,新加坡证券交易所(SGX),CapitaLand Mall Trust, 凯德商务产业信托(CapitaLand Commercial Trust)

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