新加坡银行每月快讯:随着利率越高,定价权越大

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投资概要

 

8月份新加坡国内贷款同比增长了5.6%。

8月份香港贷款增长放缓至8.4%,为近两年来的最低水平。

9月份3个月的SIBOR达到了预期的新高。

对新加坡银行业维持买入评级。

 

8月份新加坡国内贷款同比增长了5.6%

8月份,国内贷款增长受到商业贷款同比增长7%的推动,以及来自房屋和建筑,制造业和金融机构部门等强劲贷款需求的支撑。房屋和建筑的贷款增长同比攀升8.6%,为两年来的最高水平。同时,由于住房和汽车贷款的轻微疲软,消费贷款同比增长放缓至3.5% (为15个月来最低)。汽车贷款保持了今年的强劲势头,同比增长了8.0%;而住房贷款同比增长了3.7%,略低于去年同比增长约4%的趋势线增幅。我们预计,短期内,银行不会因为之前的贷款批准减少而出现与房地产相关的贷款放缓。

 

8月份国内存款同比增长2.2% (CASA 同比增长0.9%;定期存款增长5.9%)

由于预期利率将大幅上升,银行业一直在加强其融资地位。受政府、法定机构和非银行金融机构存款增长反弹的刺激,存款同比增长了2.2%,为10个月来的最快增速。随着银行积累存款,而大部分是价格昂贵的定期存款 (定期存款占总存款的39%),尽管是在短期内,但这可能会导致净息差的缩减。

 

8月份香港贷款同比增长了8.4% – 为近两年来的最低增速

 

香港的本币贷款推动了贷款增长。过去几个月,香港的房地产市场一直在放缓,销量和价值都呈现下降趋势。据JLL香港的数据显示,8月份的住宅销量和价值环比分别下降20.8% 和28.3%。香港各银行10年来首次上调贷款利率,它们提高贷款利率的能力可能足以抵消储蓄利率连续上升的影响。然而,较高的借贷成本可能会打击购房者对抵押贷款的信心,贸易战升级带来的不确定性可能会导致贷款增长的放缓。

 

SIBOR 继续突破10年的高点

 

3个月的SIBOR 9月份升至1.641%,达到10年的高点。我们预计加息不会在短期内减弱,净息差的扩张将继续起到催化剂的作用。尽管今年3个月的SIBOR 上涨了52个基点,但抵押贷款同比增长仍保持在3.7% 的弹性。3个月的SOR 今年保持了强劲的上升势头,接近上个月的高点。年初至今,平均3个月的SOR 同比增长了78.6% 。与此同时,新加坡的储蓄率维持在0.16% 不变。

投资行动

对新加坡银行业维持买入评级。我们对该行业的净息差持续扩张,贷款增长和股息作为股价的催化剂持乐观态度。净息差扩张的关键催化剂在于不断上升的利率,我们相信银行可以将资金成本保持在足够低的水平,以实现持续的净息差扩张。净息差扩张带来的积极惊喜,可能会抵消贸易贷款增长的负面影响(如有的话)。综上所述,银行今年继续享受着贷款规模和息差扩大的双重驱动因素。
 

 

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