凯德商务产业信托: 稳定投资组合的诱人估值

  • 2020年一季度的收入符合预期,DPU较低,为65分,2020财年的DPU为18.3%,这是由于可分配收入的保留,因为预期租金的延期支付将会扰乱现金流。
  • 升级至增持评级,目标价为74新元 (先前目标价为2.18新元)。2020财年的DPU下调了15%,从9.03分降至7.67分,其收益率为5%。股权成本从6.34%增加至7.25%,贝塔系数提高了13个基点,以反映更高的市场风险,并将我们的终端增长假设从1.85%下调至1.6%,以考虑到租赁需求的疲软。




+ 本年度仍有约10%的租赁到期,2020财年中60%的到期租赁已承诺续约。CCT在2020年一季度,有近303,000平方英尺的租赁面积已签约,其正向回归率为0%至31%的区间。其中22%的已签约租赁为新租赁合同,需求来自金融服务,法律能源,大宗商品,海事和物流行业。在经济情绪疲软的情况下,租赁需求预计将会减弱,续租的数量将超过新租约的预计数量。




– 投资组合入住率从98.0%降至95.2%。这主要是由于AEIs随着主租户(渣打银行)的租约在2020年1月份到期后,缩减了其租赁规模,导致Six Battery Road的入住率下降 (下降了20.2个百分点,从98.7%降至78.5%)。Raffles City Tower的入住率环比也下降了5个百分点,从97.2%降至92.2%。




CCT将按各自的税率,将房产税退还给所有的租户;零售和餐饮租户(主要是RCS下的租户)将会获得大约两个月的租金回扣(包括房产税退税)。RCS将豁免酒店经营者在4月份的分成租金 (2019财年的可变租金在酒店经营者的总租金中占比22%)。
将有两个物业在2020财年接受AEIs评估 – 待HSBC于2020年4月的租约结束后,将部分终止 Six Battery Road的租赁,及全面终止21 Collyer Quay的租赁。资本支出成本预计分别为3500万新元和4500万新元。


升级至增持评级,并下调目标价至1.74新元 (先前目标价为2.18新元)。


我们下调了对20/21财年的预测,以考虑到近期需求疲软导致的入住率下降,以及租户支持计划导致的RCS收入下降。20/21财年末的DPU将分别下降15.0%和10.9%。我们的股权成本从6.34%提高至7.25%,此前我们将贝塔系数提高了13个基点,并将终端增长假设从1.85% 下调至1.6%,以考虑到市场风险的增加和租赁需求的疲软。
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