星展集团控股有限公司: 津贴创纪录削减运营业绩

  • 2020年一季度盈利7亿新元,低于最初预期的15.9亿新元。然而,拨备前营业利润 (PPOP) 为24.7亿新元,较先前的预期高出15%。
  • 针对抵御COVID-19的影响,集团已拨出9亿新元的津贴,以建立资本缓冲。三分之二纳入普通拨备,其余的来自专项拨备。
  • 银行预计,由于COVID-19大流行,未来两年的信贷成本将累计增加30亿-50亿新元 (80-130个基点)。
  • 2020年一季度的中期派息每股为33新元,与上季度持平。我们预计DBS的年度派息为1.32新元,基于我们的目标价,其股息率为6.4%。
  • 维持增持评级,并向下修正目标价至60新元。在未来5个季度将拨备按每季增加7亿新元,并将NIM压缩10个基点之后,我们对2020财年末的盈利预测下调了33%。

 

积极方面

 

+ 创纪录的24.8亿新元的拨备前营业利润,为艰难的运营环境提供了缓冲。总收入突破纪录的40亿新元大关 (同比增长13.4%),成本控制保持不变 (同比增长3.9%),提供了9%的正增长。CIR在一季度提高到38.6% (2020年一季度:42.2%)。所有部门的强劲增长提振了收入。特别是,非利息收入的受益最大(同比增长39.3%),因为本季度的固定收益资产实现了投资收益。来自理财费用(同比增长28%),贷款相关费用(同比增长17%),以及投资银行费用(同比增长64%)的手续费收入实现了强劲的增长 (同比增长14%)。在NIM相对稳定的基础上,NII同比增长7.4% (2020年一季度为1.86%,对比2019年一季度为1.88%),贷款同比增长4%,这是因为一季度的降息对NIM的转化效应有所减弱。随着随后几个季度的业务放缓,预计2020年一季度强劲的运营业绩将支撑2020财年类似于2019财年的收入水平。这意味着,银行预计2020年一季度收入增长5亿新元,将被随后三个季度的收入下降所抵消。
+ 中期季度股息维持在33分,年化收益率为6.6%。银行预计,当前的股息水平将是可持续的,除非CET-1水平大幅降至12.5 – 13.5%的目标运营区间以下。当前的CET-1级水平保持在13.9%,与一年前的变化不大 (2019年一季度为14.1%)。DBS补充说,股息是由稳定性指导的,而不是有针对性的派息率。

 

消极方面

 

– 津贴极大地损害了收入。预测到疫情大流行的影响,DBS在2020年一季度已拨出10.9亿新元作为津贴。其中的7.06亿新元将随着经济状况继续恶化,而作为普通拨备入账的。这与一年前形成了鲜明的对比,当时DBS转回1亿新元的普通拨备金用于升级和复苏。剩余的金额被计入专项拨备,主要归因于本季度确认的油气部门的新账户。我们相信,大约有2亿新元 (或者“超过一半”)的特定津贴是针对一位著名的石油交易商而设的。油气行业的风险敞口维持在230亿新元,约占贷款账面的6%。然而,该行业的交易商面临油价危机的风险敞口为50亿新元,低于整体贷款敞口的2%。

 

前景

 

NIM的下行压力将在随后几个季度发挥作用。NIM在2020年一季度的弹性并不能反映NIM未来面临的压力,因为LIBOR由于融资环境紧张而维持不变。我们已将2020财年NIM的预测下调了10个基点,以适应较低的降息环境。相反,DBS提到,通过扩大利差来获得定价权,特别是在当各竞争银行开始撤回其贷款的时候。未来两年,信贷成本将累计增加80-130个基点,总计将有30-50亿新元的额外津贴被计入。在我们对2020年一季度的预测中,除了已计入的1.09新元外,还纳入了额外的30亿新元,使未来四个季度,每个季度的津贴约为7亿新元。有充足的资本安然度过这次的衰退。当前的CET1为13.9%,累计普通拨备金为32亿新元,其中包括约10亿新元的管理资产。该银行的各种资本和流动性状况也保持在远高于监管规定的水平。更多详情,请参阅附录A。

 

投资行动

 

我们维持增持建议,并下调目标价至20.60新元 (先前目标价为27.30新元)。我们已对模型进行了修正,考虑到未来四个季度,每个季度将计入7亿新元的预期津贴,并将NIM进一步削减10个基点,作为3月份降息的转化效应。
  
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