研报 | 星和电信有限公司 (StarHub):正在复苏

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2019年11月6日
增持 (维持)
收盘价:SGD 1.480 | 预测DIV:SGD 0.090
目标价:SGD 1.580 | 总回报:12.8%

 

摘要

收入和税后净利达到预期。不包括来自TPG的900万新元的一次性通道收入,税后净利将比我们的估值少3%。考虑到竞争因素和来自单个企业客户的大量流失,移动部门相对具有弹性。受网络安全同比激增135%的推动,企业收入同比增长16%。由于订购用户的基础越来越稳定,预计到2020财年末,付费电视业务将更趋稳定。
维持增持评级,目标价不变,仍为1.58新元。我们的估值不变。

 

积极方面

预计2020财年末,付费电视业务将趋于稳定。付费电视收入同比下降了25%,ARPU 遭受18%的下滑,以应对互联网电视(OTT) 用户过度流失的问题。我们认为StarHub的用户流失已经触底,因为从电缆到光纤的迁移活动加速了用户流失的情况。我们预期用户趋向稳定,因为新转换的订购用户已签署为期2年的合同。我们还期望随着促销活动的结束,ARPU能随着时间的推移而有所改善。管理层强调,其大部分的内容成本已经重新协商为可变成本模式,并将毫不犹豫地替换坚持采用固定成本模式的内容。截至2019年三季度,付费电视为总收入贡献占10%。

考虑到竞争因素,移动收入更具弹性。鉴于本季度激烈的竞争环境和遭受大量的用户流失,移动部门的表现相对较好。由于单个企业客户退出市场,后付费订购用户环比减少了35,000户。移动服务收入同比下降11%,环比下降1%,对比我们的预期 (同比下降14%,环比下降4%)。我们认为TPG 电信 (TPG) 较早期的商业发射活动是为了在消除不确定性的同时,为市场提供更多的可见性。 
 

前景

管理层修订了2019财年末的服务收入指引,同比增长从0% ~ -2%,下调至 -2% ~ -3%;并将占总收入的承诺资本支出指引从11%-12%下调至8%-9%。StarHub预计4G (维护)的资本支出为个位数,而即将推出的5G的资本支出为两位数。2019年三季度业绩,受到来自TPG额外900万新元的通道费用提振。当TPG与其他移动网络运营商 (MNOs) 达成协议,共同分担现有4G通道基础设施的成本之时,这些费用才被确认。60% 成本计划举措已被执行,目前的净节余达到1.74亿新元,而剩余的3600万新元已再投资于业务。我们预计,网络安全业务和设备销售将抵消下个季度消费市场的疲软。

维持增持评级,目标价不变仍为1.58新元

我们的估值基于6倍的EV/EBITDA(企业价值/息税前利润倍数法)。在进行任何有意义的升级之前,我们正等待网络安全业务的可持续利润。

 

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