研报 | 新加坡煤炭每月快讯:印尼煤炭迎来新机遇

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中国限制了澳大利亚的煤炭进口。在2019年2月,大连海关对澳大利亚煤炭的进口实施了无限期限制,并可能对2019年的煤炭进口总量实施1200吨的配额。五个港口在海关的监管下执行了禁令。2018年,这五个港口的煤炭进口总量共计1400万吨。与此同时,中国已将澳大利亚煤炭的清关速度放缓,至少需要40天。

陕西省榆林市的煤矿复工获批。继2019年1月,由于发生重大矿难事故,煤矿全面停产进行安全调查后,榆林市能源部于2019年2月中宣布,批准首批49座年产能达到1.68亿吨的煤矿恢复开采工作。到本月底,第二批年产能达到3560万吨的15座煤矿也陆续恢复生产。

 

印尼

对印尼的动力煤需求升温。对澳大利亚煤炭进口的限制导致了使用印尼煤炭来替代。2018年,中国进口澳大利亚烟煤约7200万吨(热值较高),进口印尼烟煤720万吨。尽管印尼的高热值煤的数量有限,但在2019年2月,国内生产商收到了更多来自中国方面的询价。与此同时,一些规模较小的高热值煤生产商正在重返市场

 

暂时性供应冲击提振了煤炭进口,但这是不可持续的。
由于担心供应短缺,煤矿事故推高了对海运煤炭的需求。2019年1月,中国的煤炭进口总量同比增长19.5%,环比增长227.5% 至3350万吨。在此期间,印尼煤炭进口同比激增16%,为三年来的新高,达到1600万吨。然而,随着国内煤矿恢复生产,2019年2月的进口量下降。据中国海关数据显示,2019年2月,煤炭进口总量同比大幅下降15.5%,而环比下降47.3% 至1760万吨。在接下来的一个月里,因为港口煤炭的库存得到补充,如图6所示,所以海运煤炭的需求可能会有所疲软,至冬季结束时,对煤炭的需求将逐渐减少。

 

印尼煤炭有可能部分填补供应缺口
目前对澳大利亚煤炭的进口限制,可能为印尼煤炭行业创造新机。自2016年以来,中国一直按照“十三五”规划,削减煤炭产能。2018年,中国关闭了5,800 座煤矿,并逐步淘汰了超过1.5亿吨的产能。在2019年和2020年,中国将继续削减剩余的1.5亿吨产能,以完成“十三五”规划下的削减8亿吨产能的目标。因此,对煤炭的进口需求保持不变。国内供应短缺给印尼和俄罗斯留下了填补缺口的空间。尽管当前煤炭价格低迷,但鉴于相对较低的现金成本运营,高热值煤炭产能的潜在增长,可能在一定程度上抵消了价格的不利因素。

 

煤矿股票每月更新
Golden Energy and Resources
(目标价:0.36新元 / 买入)

预计2019年产量达到2500万吨 (同比增长10.6%)
2018财年的现金成本同比增长18%,但预计到2019财年末会有所下降
由于中国扩大了煤炭的进口限制,煤炭价格仍将逆风而行

Geo Energy Resources
(目标价:0.245新元/ 买入)

预计2019年产量达到1000万吨 (同比增长30%)
今年的现金成本将有所增加
期待TBR 矿场的新开采和新矿场的收购
2018年9月,申请在香港进行双重上市

 

投资行动
我们看好煤矿行业。今年,两家煤矿企业的产量预计将实现两位数的增长,而2019年的平均煤炭价格 (4,200 GAR:39.5美元/吨) 预计将比2018年低10%。因此,由于产量的增长抵消了平均售价的下降,行业的整体表现仍将继续改善。我们对煤矿行业维持增持评级。

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