“特金会”释放利好 美联储宣布今年加息4次 中兴通讯昨日终复牌却……

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美股

截至北京时间6月14日凌晨,美股周三收跌。美联储宣布加息25个基点,并暗示2018年一共将加息4次。

截止收盘,道指跌119.53点,或0.47%,报25,201.20点;标普500指数跌11.22点,或0.4%,报2,775.63点;纳指跌8.09点,或0.11%,报7,695.70点。

宏观基本面:

美朝联合公报:“比任何人预期的都好“

北京时间6月14日,美朝领导人于新加坡签署了两页长度的联合声明,摘要如下:

1. 依照朝鲜和美国两国人民对和平和繁荣的期望,美国与朝鲜人民民主主义共和国将建立新型朝美关系。

2. 美国与朝鲜人民民主主义共和国将会共同努力为朝鲜半岛带来长久和稳定的和平。

3. 重申4月27日在板门店非军事区的协定,朝鲜承诺继续进行完成朝鲜半岛无核化的进程。

4. 朝鲜和美国承诺交换“战俘/失踪人口(POW/MIA)包括立刻遣返已经被确认身份的羁押者”。

如果美国结束对朝鲜的经济制裁,朝鲜经济体开放,将给世界经济带来爆炸式增长。

由于朝鲜在二十世纪六十年代停止发布详细的统计数据,并且在接下来的四十年中,唯一的经济数据来自年度国家预算报告中有限的收入和支出数字。并且政府在二十一世纪初完全取消了绝对数字,很难对朝鲜经济总量做出准确预测。但是据bloomberg估计,朝鲜丰富的黄金,稀土等自然资源的价值或将达到2万亿美元。

美联储:宣布再次加息,今年还有2次

北京时间6月14日凌晨2点,在结束了为期两天的货币政策会议后,美联储宣布上调联邦基金目标利率25个基点,至1.75%~2.0%,加息幅度符合市场预期。

但同时公布的联储声明显示,今年美联储还将加息两次。此前美联储曾预测2018年总共将加息3次,这样的变化是超预期的!

此次结合联储会议声明,有以下值得关注的要点:

1)美联储最新预期2018年将总共加息4次,还剩2次。

2)本次联储会议声明删除了今年5月决议声明中称“利率仍会在一段时间内低于长期水平”的表述。对于加息,用“进一步逐步上调”替代了“调整”,说明美联储的态度比市场预期的更为激进(鹰派)。

3)美联储上调了今年的GDP增长预期和通胀预期,下调了失业率预期,同时上调了明年的通胀预期和明后两年的失业率预期。这说明美联储对经济的判断非常乐观,且对通胀的预期也更为鹰派。

4)鲍威尔在记者会中表示,美国经济运行“非常好”,在经济强化的时候利率逐步回归正常是应该的。这无疑也释放了更激进的加息信号。

总体来说,虽然本次加息幅度符合市场预期,但美联储对未来加息节奏的展望显得比市场预期的更为激进,这或将导致:

1) 给除美元国债以为的其他分析资产更大的压力;

2)使中国等新兴市场国家面临更艰巨的外部环境。关于中国央行此次是否会更随美联储加息,辉立资本新加坡(SGPSPL)将为您持续关注。

消息发布后,截至本报导,美国十年期国债收益率跳涨0.003或0.11%,报2.976;美元指数急升0.0036或0.0019%,报93.5405;三大股指由涨转跌。

焦点股观察:

时代华纳(TWX)股价收盘上涨1.8%,此前一家法庭裁定该公司能继续进行以大约850亿美元收购时代华纳的交易。

21世纪福克斯(FOX)股价攀升,上述法庭判决可能使这家媒体集团继续售出某些电视与电影资产。

刚刚在4月份发行IPO的云计算软件企业Pivotal Software(PVTL)股价大涨32.96%,此前该公司宣布盈利超出预期。

   

中国A股

北京时间6月13日,昨日沪深股指低开后于盘中持续横盘震荡,临近午盘快速下探,午后持续下行。

截止收盘,沪指报3049.80点,跌30.00点,跌幅0.97%,成交1559.35亿元;深成指报10161.65点,跌153.63点,跌幅1.49%,成交1869.73亿元。

盘面上,特钢、钢铁等概念板块涨幅居前,语音技术、中韩自贸区、富士康、电子制造、智能音箱等概念板块跌幅居前。

宏观基本面:

外管局:取消QFII,RQFII资金汇出比例要求
取消QFII,RQFII资金汇出比例不超过20%的要求,QFII可委托托管人办理相关资金汇出;取消QFII、RQFII本金锁定期要求,QFII、RQFII可根据投资情况汇出本金;允许QFII、RQFII开展外汇套期保值,对冲境内投资的汇率风险。

   

港股

北京时间6月13日,美朝首脑峰会结束后,投资者将目光转向美联储的货币政策会议。市场预料美联储的加息行动已如箭在弦上。昨日开盘,恒生指数低开0.36%,之后持续走低,午后跳水跌逾1%。

截止收盘,恒生指数跌1.22%,报30725.15点。国企指数跌1.4%,报12035.63点;红筹指数跌1.46%,报4655.43点。大市成交844.29亿港元。

盘面上,苹果概念股、石油股、濠赌股、内银股集体下跌。世界杯开幕在即,体育用品股逆市上涨。

沪港通资金流向方面,沪股通净流入7.85亿,港股通(沪)净流出3.16亿。

深港通资金流向方面,深股通净流入7.38亿,港股通(深)净流入6.1亿。

焦点股关注:

苹果概念股下跌,瑞声科技跌4.1%,报121.6元,领跌蓝筹;比亚迪电子跌2.52%,报12.38元;舜宇光学跌2.54%,报168.6元。

石油股下跌。中国海洋石油跌2.05%,报13.38元;中国石油股份跌2.88%,报6.27元;中国石油化工股份(7.44, -0.09, -1.20%)跌1.2%,报7.44元。

世界杯开幕在即,体育用品股逆市上涨。李宁涨2.63%,报9.75元;中国动向涨4%,报1.56元;361度涨1.55%,报2.62元,安踏体 育涨1.24%,报49元。

停牌近两个月后,中兴通讯禁令事件接近尘埃落定,中兴通讯与美国达成替代和解协议,公司将支付合计14亿美元民事罚款。今日复牌H股暴跌41.56%,报14.96元。

来源:东方财富网,新浪财经,同花顺,21世纪经济报道,彭博,华尔街见闻,辉立证券

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