OCBC Bank - Stock Analyst Research

Target Price* 14.22
RecommendationBUY
Market Cap*-
Publication Date7 Nov 2022

*At the time of publication

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Ltd – Earnings bolstered by NIM expansion

  • 3Q22 earnings of S$1.61bn were in line with our estimates. It came from higher net interest margin and net interest income offset by lower fee income. 9M22 PATMI is 73% of our FY22e forecast.
  • NII grew 44% YoY underpinned by loan growth of 6% YoY and NIM surging 54bps YoY to 2.06%. Total non-interest income dipped 4% YoY as lower fee income was partly offset by higher trading and insurance income. Allowances fell 6% YoY to S$154mn.
  • Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of S$14.22. We raise FY22e earnings by 6% as we increase NII and lower provision estimates for FY22e. We assume 1.23x FY22e P/BV and ROE estimate of 10.4% in our GGM valuation. Catalysts include lower provisions and higher interest income as economic conditions improve. OCBC is our preferred pick among the three banks due to attractive valuations, upside in dividend from the 14.4% CET 1 buffer and lower provisioning as the Indonesian and Malaysian economies recover.

 

Results at a glance

Source: Company, PSR

 

The Positives

+ Net interest income grew 44% YoY. NII grew 44% YoY led by loan growth of 6% YoY and NIM improvement of 54bps YoY to 2.06%. Loan growth was driven by Singapore, Indonesia and Greater China. Lending growth was broad based to the building and construction sector, financial institutions, investment and holding companies, and the consumer segment. NIM expansion was mainly due to asset yields outpacing higher funding costs amid a rapidly rising interest rate environment. OCBC has guided for similar mid-single digit loan growth and NIM of 1.80-1.90% (from 1.70%) for FY22e.

+ Insurance and trading income increase. Life insurance profit from Great Eastern Holdings rose 21% YoY, mostly due to the net mark-to-market impact of higher interest rates on the valuation of assets and liabilities in its insurance funds. Trading income also increased 134% YoY and largely comprised customer flow treasury income.

+ Allowances fell 6% YoY to S$154mn. Total allowances fell 6% YoY but were up 112% QoQ to S$154mn. GPs of S$76mn (2Q22: S$66mn) and SPs of S$78mn (2Q22: S$6mn) were made during the quarter. Total NPAs were down 7% QoQ and 13% YoY to S$3.69bn, and the NPL ratio improved by 10bps QoQ to 1.2%. Notably, there was an increase in Greater China NPLs by 18% QoQ mainly due to one Singapore based customer on a property investment. Nonetheless, OCBC has mentioned that it is a customer with low LTV and the risk is specific to that particular asset. Credit costs improved by 7bps YoY to 14bps due to the better credit environment.

The Negatives

– Fee income fell 20% YoY. Fee income declined 20% YoY to S$453mn mainly due to a drop in wealth management fees as customer activities were subdued amid risk-off investment sentiments globally. The decline was partly offset by growth in other fee segments including credit card, and loan and trade-related fees.

– CASA ratio dipped YoY. Current Account Savings Accounts (CASA) ratio fell 5.9% YoY to 56.1% mainly due to the high interest rate environment and a move towards fixed deposits (FD). Nonetheless, total customer deposits increased 6% YoY to S$353bn mainly due to the growth in FDs. The Group’s funding composition remained stable with customer deposits comprising ~80% of total funding.

Outlook

Loan growth: Loans grew 6% YoY in 3Q22 to S$303bn, meeting the bank’s guidance of a mid-single digit increase for FY22e. However, management said that it expects continued economic growth but at a slower pace due to the current economic environment. Management also sees further lending opportunities in the wholesale segment and sustainable financing. Mortgage pipelines in Singapore and Hong Kong are also healthy, with more drawdowns expected in FY22.

China: OCBC’s total exposure to mainland China remains at 11% of Group loans (S$34bn), with onshore exposure are at S$7bn and offshore exposure at S$27bn. Nonetheless, customers include mainly top state-owned enterprises, large local corporates, as well as OCBC’s network customers. Onshore China corporate real estate loans made up <1% (<S$3bn) of total loans, mainly lending to network customers. Greater China NPLs rose by 18% QoQ to S$744mn and is mainly due to one network customer name, which is highly secured with LTV at <60%.

NIM: Management has raised its NIM guidance to 1.80-1.90% for FY22e (previously 1.70%).  It expects 4Q22 NIM to be above 2.10%. OCBC has also said that based on historical data, a 100bps increase in rates would lead to an 18bps increase in NIMs. Assuming rate hikes totalling 100bps this year, our FY22e NII can climb S$725mn (or 11%) resulting in an increase in our FY22e PATMI by 10%.

About the author

Glenn Thum
Research Analyst
PSR

Glenn covers the Banking and Finance sector. He has had 3 years of experience as a Credit Analyst in a Bank, where he prepared credit proposals by conducting consistent critical analysis on the business, market, country and financial information. Glenn graduated with a Bachelor of Business Management from the University of Queensland with a double major in International Business and Human Resources.

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