研报 |新加坡银行每月快讯:准备逆风而上

投资摘要

美联储将利率维持在1.5% – 1.75%的范围内。新加坡银行的NIM(净息差)预计将面临压力,特别是3个月期SIBOR,至2019年12月底,同比下降11个基点至1.78%。

2019年12月,新加坡国内贷款增速稳定在3.1%。

数字银行牌照于2019年12月31日截止申请。根据MAS(金管局)的时间安排,数字银行可能要到2021年才会开始运营。

对新加坡银行业维持增持评级。通过资本管理的大力努力将管理下行风险,并提供近5.0%的可持续股息收益率。

美联储维持利率稳定

在上周三 (1月29日)的会议上,美联储利率制定小组的10位成员一致表决通过,将利率稳定在1.5%至1.75%的区间内。美联储主席杰罗姆 鲍威尔在声明中,所持的鸽派论调似乎表明加息的可能性不大。

随着低利率的回归,SIBOR 将受到抑制,这将影响到本地银行的NIMs。在2019年5月达到2.01%的峰值后,SIBOR 在美联储恢复降息政策后,下跌了23个基点至1.78%。因此,我们预计本地银行将面临NIM 的压力。

新加坡贷款增长企稳

2019年12月,包括国内和消费贷款,国内未偿还贷款总额保持稳定,使2019年的贷款增长了3.1%。这一增长比过去5年的年平均增长率为2.7%要高。然而,12月份的消费贷款继续表现疲软,使增速在五年来首次出现萎缩,收缩了1.3%。这一结果被同比增长5.9% 的商业贷款部分地抵消了。

截至2019年底,未偿还贷款总额企稳在6920亿新元,其中商业贷款和消费贷款分别占62% 和38%。

申请数字银行牌照

申请截止于2019年12月31日。成功的申请者将于2020年年中公布。将共有5个牌照可供争夺,其中两个是数字全银行(DFB) 和3 个数字批发银行(DWB) 牌照。

我们预计数字银行不会对现有银行产生任何重大的影响,原因如下:

  1. 与新进入者相比,现有的三家本地银行拥有更大的规模,网络,声誉以及技术投资。
  2. 任何的竞争优势或创新都可能是短暂的,并被现有的银行所复制。
  3. 与新兴市场不同,新加坡的银行服务渗透得很好。任何由数字银行服务的 “服务不足”的细分市场,本质上都显示出其低盈利性。
  4. 业务范围有限,因为全球趋势表明,其盈利途径受到放贷或资金转移的限制,我们认为这将会局限了数字银行的增长机会。
  5. 数字银行将成为我们银行系统的一项补充服务,而不是核心业务。

投资行动

对新加坡银行业维持增持评级。全球经济放缓和利率保持稳定的可能性将继续给银行业带来压力。冠状病毒对全球经济的影响程度也仍然是一个巨大的不确定性。然而,新加坡银行在资本管理方面的努力将大大地提振其业绩。除了使银行免受外部风险外,谨慎的资本管理还确保了投资者的可持续股息的支付。这意味着,4 – 5%的指示性股息收益率(基于过去的股息数据) 将继续对投资者保持吸引力。

在新加坡银行业中,我们看好UOB,基于以下原因:

  1. 与DBS 和OCBC相比,其对大中华区和香港的风险敞口最低。
  2. 由于利率下降,NIM 压缩的空间更小;以及
  3. 以大众富裕阶层为目标的防御性财富管理业务。

本文为英文翻译版本,仅供参考,一切请以英文版本为准。如果有想了解更多全球股市资讯,请关注微信公众共 “辉立资本新加坡” (SGPSPL)。同时提供在线免费开设股票账户,一个账户轻松交易美股,港股,新加坡股,中国A股,越南股票,韩国股票,德国股票,马来西亚股票,泰国股票,印尼股票,菲律宾股票,日本股票,澳大利亚股票,台湾股票,加拿大股票,英国股票,法国股票,荷兰股票,葡萄牙股票,比利时股票,土耳其股票

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