研报 | 华侨银行有限公司: 受保险和津贴拖累

  • 2020年一季度收益低于我们预期的45%,原因是保险以市值计价的损失暴跌了94%,以及津贴较一年前的49亿新元,提高到6.57亿新元。
  • 同比3%的贷款增长支撑了6%的NII(净利息收入)增长,因为NIM从一年前开始就企稳在76%。
  • 我们维持增持评级,并下调目标价至14新元 (先前目标价为12.10新元)在未来两年里,信贷成本指引被修订为每年50-60个基点,并在此期间追加了额外的3亿新元的津贴。由于准备金的提高和保险的损失,我们将2020财年的收益削减了20%。

 

积极方面

 

+ NII同比增长了6%,因为NIM自一年前开始企稳在1.76%。贷款同比增长3%,CASA比率从一年前的47%提高到51%。银行预计CASA的交易量将会继续增长,以缓解因降息导致利润率减少所带来的压力。

+ 手续费和佣金收入同比增长了10%
。财富管理费用同比增长32%,而经纪业务和基金管理费用同比增长18%,抵御了来自贷款相关费用的下行压力。 (同比下降18%)。

 

 

 

 

消极方面

 

 

– 糟糕的市场状况受Great Eastern的拖累。Great Eastern的特许经营业务继续增长,较一年前相比,NBEV增长了15%,而TWNS增长了21%。然而,这一增长,都被因投资环境疲软,GE投资组合按市值计价的损失所完全抵消了。这导致对OCBC的贡献下降了94%,从一年前的2.9亿新元降至2020年一季度的1800万新元。
– 对油气的风险敞口继续推动信贷成本上升。2020年一季度,被收取了2.75亿的SP(专项准备金),其中大部分是由于对当地的一家油气交易商的较大敞口造成的。一位新的油气交易商正浮出水面,可能会在随后几个季度给OCBC的SP带来压力。银行认为,欺诈活动只是孤立事件,而不是普遍现象。
 

前景

 

 

收益继续受GE业绩的影响。由于3月份经历了市场抛售的低谷,2020年一季度出现了按市值计价的不利损失。展望未来,市场波动将继续影响GE的业绩,进而影响OCBC的收益。一季度预提的准备金可能为随后的收益提供了喘息之机。OCBC指引,在未来两年内,每年的信贷成本为50-60个基点。本年一季度的信贷成本为86个基点,可能预示着进入2021财年的随后几个季度,其信贷成本将会疲软。
CET-1 比率保持在14.3%的健康水平,高于一年前的14.2%。雄厚的资本使OCBC处于有利的地位,可以经受住前景不佳带来的信贷紧缩。展望未来,银行希望将其CET-1比率保持在12.5-13.5%的水平范围内,同时努力遏制在较高端,以确保有能力应对疫情大流行带来的影响。其股息政策还将决取于其保持强劲的资本状况的能力而定。

 

 

 

投资行动

 

 

我们维持增持评级,并下调目标价至9.14新元 (先前目标价为12.10新元)考虑到较低的利率环境后,我们修订了目标价。NIM的预测被压缩了10个基点,而未来两年将在每个季度增加3亿新元的信贷成本,以反映不断恶化的经济状况。

 
 
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