研报 | 凯德商用新加坡信托(CapitaLand Mall Trust)

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2018年8月28日

 

投资概要

 

CMT 将以7.9亿新元收购Westgate 剩余70%的股份。

以Westgate的市值为基础,收购价为11.28亿新元 (2,746新元/平方英尺)。

从Sembawang 购物中心回收的资金,将以投入收益率为4.3%的新资产出售。

最新承诺的入住率为98%,从2011年起计,租赁期为99年。

 

有什么新鲜资讯吗?

CMT 宣布从赞助商凯德置地公司手中,以7.896亿新元的价格收购Westgate剩余70%的股份。包括与收购相关的费用,CMT 的总支出估计为8.06亿新元,将通过以债务和股权相结合的方式出资,并将在适当的时候作决定。交易预计在2018年四季度完成。

 

我们有什么看法?

投入收益率低于投资组合NPI收益率的5.8%。据我们的估计,如果以债务为收购提供大量的资金,那么收购只会增值。假设债务成本与CMT当前的平均成本3.2%保持一致,并考虑到增量的管理费用,我们预计,如果由70%或更多的债务提供资金,此次收购将只会增加2019财年末的DPU。假设以全部债务融资,此次收购 (以当前盈利水平计算) 可使2019-2020财年末的DPU提高约1.2%,并使我们的目标价提高0.02新元。一笔以完全债务融资的收购,将使CMT的杠杆水平提高到约36%。

Westgate 的市值仅在两个月内上涨了14%。Westgate 商定的市值为11.28亿新元,比截至2018年6月隐含的估值9.91亿新元高出了14%。这主要是由于最新的估值所使用的上限利率有所压缩。

尽管自那以来,公司的资本收益率仍在继续压缩,但去年的投入收益率与裕廊购物中心的交易相当。尽管市场价值较两个月前的水平有所上升,但我们注意到,4.3%的投入收益率与2017年二季度以22亿新元收购的裕廊购物中心的交易相当。

巩固在快速发展的裕廊湖区的地位。裕廊湖区将成为新加坡的第二个中央商业区,政府计划在新的Tengah 房产开发多达42,000 套新住宅,通过裕廊区域线连接起来,该地区未来的增长潜力巨大。

 

投资行动

维持中性评级,目标价不变,仍为新元2.05。

我们维持原来的预测,等待着即将到来的临时股东大会,就利益方交易的批准。根据融资资本结构,假设为一项增值收购提供至少70%的债务融资,那我们的目标价上涨的范围将从持平至0.02新元。我们当前的目标价转化成2018财年末的收益率为5.6%,以及资产净值比率为1.03。

 

 

 

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