Frasers Centrepoint Trust (星狮地产信托) 驾驭动荡的现金流

新加坡 | 房地产 (REIT) | 2020年二季度汇报

积极方面

 

+ 年初迄今,续约的NLA为23.1%,复原率约为5%。2020财年需要续约的GRI占比35.7% (NLA为32.7%,312份租约),年初迄今,FCT已续约的NLA为23.1% (142份租约)。平均复原率约为5%。全年剩余11%的GRI (NLA为9.6%)。考虑到租户的财务状况被削弱,管理层预计,租赁续约的谈判期将更长,剩余的租约复原率较弱。

 

 

消极方面

– 2020年二季度,大型商场的租户销售额下降2%至10%。由于购物者避开拥挤的区域,大型商场的客流量下降了10%,而小型商场的客流量则下降了5%。FCT的租户销售表现优于主要的同行 (Suntec REIT在2020年一季度下降了20.2%,OUECT在2020年2月下降了30%至40%)。
– 投资组合入住率下降0.4个百分点至96.1%。这是由于在CCP中,有两个没有续约的租赁,以及一个提前终止合约的空间。

 

前景

新加坡在4月21日,也就是FCT公布业绩的两天前,宣布将熔断机制延长1个月。在锁定期延长之前,星狮集团已宣布为租户提供1个月的租金回扣,这将花费FCT约1700万新元。随着熔断机制的延长,星狮集团可能将提供额外的援助,尤其是对那些无法在熔断机制期间进行交易的租户。额外一个月的租金回扣,将使我们2020财年末的DPU降低约11%。
到目前为止,只有一位租户表示,他们可能会根据COVID-19法案申请租金延期。申请租金延期的数量较低,可能是因为租户支援计划,将豁免租户5月份的租金。然而,一旦租户回扣或豁免期结束后,这个数字可能会上升。

维持增持评级,下调目标价至2.24新元。

我们下调了预测,以反映租金回扣和零售前景疲软。我们的股权成本假设提高了105个基点至7.6%。1个月的租金回扣将使2020财年末的DPU下降11%,但考虑到潜在的可分配收入将留存到2021财年,2020财年末的DPU削减了2.88分 (-22.6%)。

 

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