• 研报 | 2019年全球股票市场展望

    16th January, 2019

    摘要:   美国 虽然预计2019年美国企业的盈利增长将放缓至个位数,但我们预计不会出现经济衰退。这将反映出更高的信贷成本,工资和贸易关税引发的通胀。 关税的影响将适得其反,使投入成本上升,从而降低美国制造商的成本竞争力,并加剧消费者的通胀。这削弱了美联储满足特朗普一再提出的抑制加息要求的能力。因此,我们仍然预计2019年至少有两次加息。 作为一个大型的产油国,201...

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  • A股节后补跌,北上资金录大幅单日流出:杠反向产品以及大市表现更新

    9th October, 2018

    摘要:   中国市场近期要点   富时罗素宣佈计画把A股纳入其关键指数,初始阶段预计有100亿美元流入A股,MSCI宣佈计画扩大A股纳入比重和范围。 美国宣佈自9月24日起对2000亿美元中国输美产品加征10%的关税,进而还要採取其他关税升级措施。中国商务部回应称“不得不同步进行反制”。 美国副总统彭斯发表演说,指中国政府干预美国中期选举。 中国央行...

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  • 辉立宏观观测报告 | 寻找10年期国债收益率的上限

    16th May, 2018

    摘要: 10 年期美国国债收益率突破了3 %的关键水平 2018年4月24日,10 年期美国国债 (UST) 的收益率自2013年12月以来,首次接近突破3%的关键阻力位。10年期UST 的3%收益率,在很大程度上被市场参与者视为决定30年期债券市场牛市终结的关键水平。 自从险破3%以来,10 年期的UST 收益率已下降了50个基点至2.95%左右,并围绕3%作水平波动。随着美联储继续...

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  • ETF研报 | 未来五大宏观趋势

    2nd May, 2018

    摘要: 未来五大宏观趋势 在这个经济、文化和政治不断变革的时代,我们的日常生活方式已经被逐步改变。传统行业将被新兴企业取代,企业只有不断适应时代的变化,才能更好的生存,并且获得成功。 宏观趋势的变化导致许多投资者开始寻求回报更高的投资方式,而不是单单依赖以传统指数为基准的投资(如投资新加坡海峡时报指数或S&P 500指数中的蓝筹股) 主题式投资策略是指投资者观察宏观趋势,发现能从...

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  • 辉立宏观经济 —— 3月美联储公开市场委员会会议的5个要点

    27th March, 2018

    摘要: 美国联邦基金利率 在新任主席杰罗姆鲍威尔的领导下,美联储将联邦基金利率上调25个基点至1.50%-1.75%的区间。投票结果以8比0一致通过,这在很大程度上是市场预期的结果。然而,这次会议的亮点聚焦在点阵图上,它显示距今年第四次加息只差一个点。 2019年的联邦基金利率中值为2.9%,高于上次在2017年12月举行会议的2.7%。这意味着明年还会有三次加息。2020年的联邦利率中值为3...

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