Keppel Ltd Shows Resilient Asset Growth Amid Middle East Conflict Benefits, Maintains BUY with S$13.80 Target May 19, 2026

Keppel Ltd Shows Resilient Asset Growth Amid Middle East Conflict Benefits, Maintains BUY with S$13.80 Target

Company Overview

Keppel Ltd operates as a diversified conglomerate with significant exposure to asset management, infrastructure, and energy sectors. The company has positioned itself as a key player in Asian infrastructure investment, managing substantial assets across digital infrastructure, energy, and offshore rig operations.


Financial Performance and Asset Management Growth

Keppel’s recent financial performance reflects a mixed picture with strategic positioning for future growth. The company reported slightly lower net profit year-on-year for its New Keppel operations, primarily attributed to reduced real estate contributions. Overall net profit declined due to the absence of fair value gains and lower asset monetisation gains compared to the previous period.

However, the asset management division demonstrated robust growth, with fees increasing 13% year-on-year in the first quarter to S$108 million. This growth trajectory builds on the previous full year’s impressive 14.5% increase. The company successfully finalised S$2 billion in commitments, with particular strength in digital infrastructure investments. Notably, fundraising activities remained unaffected by the Middle East conflict, whilst Asian dedicated infrastructure funds continue attracting significant investor interest.


Middle East Conflict Creates Opportunities

The ongoing Middle East conflict has unexpectedly benefited Keppel’s operations through improved electricity spreads. Previously declining blended spark spreads of around S$10 year-on-year have reversed dramatically, climbing to over S$20 following the conflict’s onset. This development has enhanced the attractiveness of longer-dated electricity contracts, with customers expected to pay premiums for extended-term security.

The conflict has also strengthened prospects for Keppel’s S$4.3 billion AssetCo rig portfolio. Rising long-dated oil curves have generated strong inquiries for the company’s jackups and rigs, with day rates increasing 10-15% upon renewal. Of the 13 vessels in AssetCo, six jackups are completed with seven others at various completion stages.


Challenges and Outlook

Despite these positives, Keppel faces minor disruptions to its gas supply due to force majeure declarations on LNG supply. However, the impact remains minimal, affecting only a small percentage of the company’s gas requirements. Replacement gas sourcing from GasCo at spot JKM pricing, rather than typical Brent-indexed rates, has normalised blended costs.

Looking ahead, second-half earnings will be supported by the 600MW Keppel Sakra commencement, increased funds under management, Bifrost cable sales, and DSS project completions. The company targets S$2-3 billion in asset monetisation for the financial year, supporting potential special dividends.

Phillip Securities Research maintains its BUY recommendation with a sum-of-the-parts derived target price of S$13.80, reflecting confidence in Keppel’s strategic positioning and growth prospects.


Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is Phillip Securities Research's recommendation and target price for Keppel Ltd?

A: Phillip Securities Research maintains a BUY recommendation with a sum-of-the-parts derived target price of S$13.80.

Q: How has the asset management business performed recently?

A: Asset management fees grew 13% year-on-year in the first quarter to S$108 million, building on the previous full year's 14.5% increase. The company finalised S$2 billion in commitments, particularly in digital infrastructure.

Q: How has the Middle East conflict affected Keppel's operations?

A: The conflict has positively impacted electricity spreads, with blended spark spreads shifting from a YoY decline of S$10 to an increase of S$20. It has also improved prospects for AssetCo rigs with stronger inquiries and 10-15% higher day rates upon renewal.

Q: What challenges is the company facing from the Middle East conflict?

A: There has been minor disruption to gas supply due to force majeure on LNG supply, though this affects only a small percentage of Keppel's gas requirements. Replacement gas is sourced from GasCo at spot JKM pricing.

Q: What are the key drivers for second-half earnings?

A: Second-half earnings will be supported by the commencement of 600MW Keppel Sakra, increased funds under management, the sale of Bifrost cables, and completion of DSS projects.

Q: What is Keppel's asset monetisation target for the financial year?

A: The company targets S$2-3 billion in asset monetisation for the financial year, which will support special dividends. This compares to S$2.8 billion achieved in the previous financial year.

Q: How many vessels are in the AssetCo portfolio?

A: AssetCo contains 13 vessels valued at S$4.3 billion, of which six jackups are completed and another seven are at various stages of completion.


 

This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst. 

 

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About the author

Keppel Ltd Shows Resilient Asset Growth Amid Middle East Conflict Benefits, Maintains BUY with S$13.80 Target

Paul Chew

Paul has more than 25 years of experience as a fund manager and sell-side analyst. He currently covers sectors such as healthcare, electronics, telecommunications, conglomerates, small caps, and strategy.

He graduated from Monash University and has completed both his Chartered Financial Analyst and Australian CPA programme.

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