Meta Platforms: BUY Rating Maintained With Target Price of US$800 as AI-Powered Advertising Drives Strong Growth November 4, 2026
Brief Overview
Meta Platforms reported third-quarter 2026 earnings in line with expectations. Revenue increased 26% year-on-year to US$64.6 billion, driven by all-time high user engagement and improved advertising performance, while adjusted net profit after minority interests grew 2% year-on-year to US$19.1 billion. Third-quarter revenue and net profit were at 71% and 70% of full-year 2026 estimates, subject to the seasonal nature of the advertising business. Notably, Meta reported its first-ever quarterly negative free cash flow of US$2.1 billion as it continued to ramp up artificial intelligence investment.
Investment Positives
Solid Core Advertising Business
Meta’s advertising revenue grew 26% year-on-year to US$63.1 billion in the third quarter of 2026, driven by 10% growth in ad impressions from stronger engagement, user growth, and ad load optimisation, and a 14% increase in average price per ad on improved ad performance. Deeper integration of Meta’s AI-powered content recommendation capabilities continued to drive engagement, with Instagram and Facebook global time spent per user on Reels and Feed reaching an all-time high, while Threads time spent per user increased by over 20% year-on-year. Improvements to GEM ad-ranking models also lifted in-app conversions by 9.6% year-on-year. Adoption of Meta AI Business Assistant remained encouraging, with advertisers increasing ad spend by 9% year-on-year versus non-adopters.
Establishment of New Class C Common Stock
Meta announced a new class of publicly listed, non-voting Class C common stock, effective January 2027. Existing Class A and Class B shareholders will receive one additional Class C share for each share held through a one-for-one stock dividend, effectively a two-for-one stock split. The analyst believes the issuance could provide an additional funding source for Meta’s substantial AI spending, reducing reliance on debt financing while preserving management’s voting rights to execute its long-term strategic roadmap. The company has disclosed US$825 billion in lease and contractual commitments related to data centres, servers and third-party cloud capacity over the next ten years. The new share class could also help attract and retain AI talent through share-based compensation, reducing reliance on cash compensation amid rising operating expenses.
Investment Challenges
Unprofitable Reality Labs
Meta’s non-core Reality Labs segment reported an operating loss of US$4.1 billion, narrowing 7% year-on-year. Segment revenue rose 59% year-on-year to US$1.1 billion, supported by strong AI glasses growth despite lower Quest headset sales. Meta expects Reality Labs’ operating losses to narrow to US$18 billion to US$19 billion in financial year 2026 and approximately US$15 billion in financial year 2027 as it prioritises AI investment and expects Muse integration to drive AI glasses sales.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Meta reported its first-ever quarterly negative free cash flow of US$2.1 billion in the third quarter of 2026 as it continued to ramp up investment in servers, data centres and network infrastructure. Operating cash flow growth slowed to 9% year-on-year to US$32.8 billion and was entirely offset by an 80% year-on-year increase in capital expenditure to US$34.9 billion. The company’s net cash position contracted to US$1.53 billion from US$6.6 billion in the second quarter as massive spending continued to weigh on the balance sheet.
Margin Under Pressure
Meta’s operating expenses increased 32% year-on-year in the third quarter, driven by higher legal, AI infrastructure, and third-party AI token costs. The accelerating operating expenses weighed on operational profitability, with adjusted operating income growth slowing to 11% year-on-year to US$22.9 billion, from 18% in the third quarter of 2025. Meta’s operating margin declined for the third consecutive quarter to 35.4% from 36.8%, indicating lower operating efficiency as the company scaled its AI infrastructure. The company expects cost efficiency to improve by more than ten times in financial year 2027, driven by off-peak capacity utilisation, deployment of smaller and more efficient models, and inference optimisation that maximises GPU usage.
Outlook
Meta guided for fourth-quarter 2026 revenue of US$73 billion to US$76 billion, implying an accelerating growth rate of 22% to 27%, with a 1% foreign exchange tailwind. The company increased full-year 2026 total expenses to US$175 billion to US$179 billion, reflecting US$9.9 billion in legal charges recognised in the third quarter related to the settlement of a multi-state youth safety case. Full-year 2026 capital expenditure is expected to be US$135 billion to US$145 billion, narrowed from the prior outlook of US$130 billion to US$145 billion.
Meta reported over 10 million Muse personal AI agent setups in the United States and Canada within six weeks of launch, with around 25% of users engaging with it on any given day for shopping. Despite strong early traction, the analyst expects minimal near-term revenue contribution from Muse, as adoption and monetisation remain early-stage and high compute requirements could limit global scalability. Over time, the analyst believes Muse AI models could create incremental revenue opportunities through Muse Model API and Muse Code at competitive pricing, monetised under usage-based fees or a subscription model. Meta’s core advertising business is expected to remain a key growth driver, supported by AI-driven improvements in ad ranking and recommendation systems to deliver more personalised advertisements, alongside wider adoption of generative AI tools that help advertisers create and optimise campaigns more efficiently.
Recommendation and Target Price
Phillip Securities Research maintains a BUY rating on Meta Platforms with an increased target price of US$800, raised from the previous US$750. Full-year 2026 and 2027 revenue and net profit forecasts have been increased by 2% and 5% respectively, due to incremental revenue from subscriptions. We believe the Class C share issuance provides additional financial flexibility to support Meta’s substantial AI investment while preserving management control.
This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the current recommendation and target price for Meta Platforms?
A: We maintain a BUY rating with an increased target price of US$800, raised from the previous US$750.
Q: How did Meta's advertising business perform in 3Q26?
A: Advertising revenue grew 26% year-on-year to US$63.1 billion, driven by 10% growth in ad impressions and a 14% increase in average price per ad. User engagement on Instagram and Facebook Reels and Feed reached all-time highs.
Q: Why did Meta report negative free cash flow for the first time?
A: Meta reported negative free cash flow of US$2.1 billion as capital expenditure surged 80% year-on-year to US$34.9 billion, entirely offsetting operating cash flow growth of 9% year-on-year to US$32.8 billion. The increase was driven by investment in servers, data centres and network infrastructure.
Q: What is the Class C common stock announcement?
A: Meta announced a new publicly listed, non-voting Class C common stock effective January 2027. Existing shareholders will receive one Class C share per share held, effectively a two-for-one stock split. The analyst believes this could fund AI spending while preserving management's voting rights.
Q: How is Reality Labs performing?
A: Reality Labs reported an operating loss of US$4.1 billion in the third quarter, narrowing 7% year-on-year. Revenue rose 59% year-on-year to US$1.1 billion. Meta expects Reality Labs losses to narrow to US$18 billion to US$19 billion in financial year 2026 and approximately US$15 billion in financial year 2027.
Q: What is the revenue guidance for 4Q26?
A: Meta guided for fourth-quarter 2026 revenue of US$73 billion to US$76 billion, implying 22% to 27% year-on-year growth with a 1% foreign exchange tailwind.
Q: Why are margins under pressure?
A: Operating expenses grew 32% year-on-year driven by higher legal, AI infrastructure, and third-party AI token costs. The operating margin declined for the third consecutive quarter to 35.4% from 36.8%. The company expects cost efficiency to improve by more than ten times in financial year 2027.
Q: What are the key risks for investors?
A: Key risks include continued negative free cash flow from heavy AI investment, declining operating margins, an unprofitable Reality Labs segment, and the early-stage nature of Muse monetisation which limits near-term revenue contribution.
Disclaimer
Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
About the author
Serena Lim
Serena is a Research Analyst covering the U.S. Technology sector at PSR. Prior to joining the firm, she worked as an Equity Dealer and held various roles across the insurance and banking industries. Serena holds a Bachelor's degree in Economics and a Postgraduate Diploma in Applied Finance from the University of Adelaide.
UltraGreen.ai: BUY Maintained With Lower Target Price of US$0.73 — Segmenting to Defend 
First REIT: Accumulate With a Lower Target Price of S$0.17 — Still Waiting for the Next Move 
Tesla Q3 2026 Results: Margin Recovery and SELL Rating Outlook 
Singapore Air Transport: Sector Rated NEUTRAL as Cargo Growth Offsets Jet Fuel Headwinds — SATS (TP S$5.01), CAO (TP S$2.01), SIA Engineering (TP S$3.90) at BUY 
