UltraGreen.ai: BUY Maintained With Lower Target Price of US$0.73 — Segmenting to Defend November 4, 2026

Brief Overview

UltraGreen.ai, a Singapore-listed healthcare company focused on indocyanine green (ICG) products and imaging solutions, reported a robust set of results for the third quarter and first nine months of the 2026 financial year. Third-quarter revenue, net of discontinued operations, rose 43.9 per cent year-on-year to US$44.6 million, while nine-month revenue climbed 35 per cent year-on-year to US$131.8 million, forming 25 per cent of Phillip Securities Research’s full-year 2026 forecast. Growth was underpinned by both the US and rest-of-world (RoW) markets.

In a notable strategic move, UltraGreen relaunched its lower-priced generic ICG — functioning as an authorised generic — in late September/early October to compete with Zydus. The company did not disclose its pricing, and withheld vial volumes and average selling prices (ASPs) by region, citing commercial sensitivity. US hospitals now have three categories of ICG to choose from: UltraGreen’s branded IC-GREEN; generic copies of IC-GREEN, namely UltraGreen’s own authorised generic and Zydus’s generic; and separately approved competing brands, including Stryker’s SPY AGENT GREEN and Sagent/Provepharm’s ready-to-use Zyogreen.

Investment Positives

Strong Financial Performance

Third-quarter and nine-month revenue grew 43.9 per cent and 35 per cent year-on-year to US$44.6 million and US$131.8 million, respectively. US revenue grew 35 per cent year-on-year to US$101.3 million, while RoW revenue grew 36 per cent year-on-year to US$30.5 million. We expect further vial uptake in Europe, Australia, and Switzerland to support continued RoW momentum.

Expanding Regulatory Footprint

UltraGreen’s Verdye was approved in South Africa, a market with approximately 3.3 million relevant procedures per year, where UltraGreen is the first approved ICG provider. This expanded IC-GREEN/Verdye approvals to forty-two countries. Additionally, IC-GREEN received US FDA orphan drug designation for liver cancer imaging, which could carry seven years of US market exclusivity upon approval — a potentially significant competitive moat.

Investment Challenges

Sequential Decline in Rest-of-World Revenue

RoW revenue fell 18 per cent quarter-on-quarter to US$9.4 million, from US$11.4 million in the second quarter, although it was still up 32 per cent year-on-year. Management attributed the decline to a large distributor order in June that artificially boosted second-quarter figures, as well as seasonally weaker demand in July. No deterioration was evident at the customer level.

Outlook

For UltraGreen, the launch of the authorised generic should materially reduce what Zydus earns from its exclusivity window. Hospitals may favour UltraGreen’s generic over other entrants because the authorised generic is chemically similar to IC-GREEN.

Outside the US, the medium-term opportunity rests on wider ICG use and on commercialising the camera-and-software platform beyond operating theatres to outpatient clinics. Management indicated camera bundles and leases tied to ICG supply, and software sold both standalone and as camera-integrated applications. However, we believe traction will be uncertain.

Recommendation and Target Price

Phillip Securities Research maintains its BUY recommendation on UltraGreen.ai with a lower discounted cash flow-based target price of US$0.72, down from US$1.81 previously. The revised assumptions include: UltraGreen’s US market share (branded IC-GREEN plus its own authorised generic) falling from 83 per cent to approximately 50 per cent, reducing US vials sold by 40 per cent; US vials splitting evenly between branded IC-GREEN and its own generic; the blended US ASP (branded and generic) falling approximately 40 per cent from the 2025 ASP; and vial volume growth outside the US remaining unchanged at 15 per cent a year, as RoW growth is enabled by UltraGreen’s low-cost imaging cameras, which generic-only competitors do not offer.

As a result, FY26 and FY27 estimated PATMIs are reduced by 6 per cent and 58 per cent, respectively. UltraGreen.ai is currently trading at a FY27 estimated price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 times. We view these assumptions as conservative because no expansion is assumed for the overall US ICG market, and the price and volume declines are benchmarked to a US Federal Trade Commission study of oral tablets and capsules, which typically attract more competitors and experience faster price erosion than sterile injectables such as ICG. Key factors to watch include progress on PerfusionWorks’ US FDA approval and the RoW vial adoption.

This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is Phillip Securities Research's recommendation and target price for UltraGreen.ai?

A: Phillip Securities Research maintains a BUY recommendation with a lower DCF-based target price of US$0.73, down from the previous target of US$1.81.

Q: How did UltraGreen.ai perform in the third quarter of 2026?

A: Third-quarter revenue, net of discontinued operations, rose 43.9 per cent year-on-year to US$44.6 million, driven by growth in both the US and rest-of-world markets.

Q: What is UltraGreen's authorised generic strategy?

A: UltraGreen relaunched a lower-priced generic ICG, functioning as an authorised generic, in late September/early October to compete with Zydus. This allows UltraGreen to compete for price-driven hospital purchasing while maintaining its branded IC-GREEN.

Q: Why did rest-of-world revenue decline on a quarter-on-quarter basis?

A: RoW revenue fell 18 per cent quarter-on-quarter to US$9.4 million, attributed to a large distributor order in June that boosted second-quarter figures and seasonally weaker demand in July. No deterioration was evident at the customer level.

Q: What are the key assumptions behind the lower target price?

A: We assume US market share falls from 83 per cent to approximately 50 per cent, US vials sold decline by 40 per cent, the blended US ASP falls approximately 40 Per cent from the 2025 level, and RoW vial volume growth remains at 15 per cent per year.

Q: What regulatory milestones has UltraGreen achieved recently?

A: Verdye was approved in South Africa, expanding IC-GREEN/Verdye approvals to forty-two countries. IC-GREEN also received US FDA orphan drug designation for liver cancer imaging, which could confer seven years of US market exclusivity upon approval.

Q: What are the key risks and factors to watch?

A: Key factors include progress on PerfusionWorks' US FDA approval and rest-of-world vial adoption. Uncertainty also surrounds the commercialisation of the camera-and-software platform outside operating theatres.

Q: Why do we view the assumptions as conservative?

A: No expansion is assumed for the overall US ICG market, and the price and volume declines are benchmarked to a US Federal Trade Commission study of oral tablets and capsules, which typically attract more competitors and have faster price erosion than sterile injectables such as ICG.

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