ETF Monthly October 2026: Further Weakness Expected Across Most Asset Classes in November November 12, 2026
Brief Overview
Phillip Securities Research’s ETF Monthly technical analysis report for October 2026 finds that most major asset classes experienced weakness during the month. Heading into November, the ETFs tracking oil and Bitcoin are expected to consolidate sideways. Conversely, the ETFs tracking the S&P 500, US Treasury Bonds, gold, Singapore equities, and the Hang Seng Index are likely to pull back further.
Investment Positives
Oil Stabilising After Strong October Rally
The SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF (XOP) was the standout performer in October, surging 13.6 per cent. At the beginning of the month, the price rebounded from the upward channel support and the US$179.78 breakout level before retesting the US$200.09 swing high resistance in mid-October. The price subsequently formed a higher high in the last week of the month, signalling constructive momentum. We expect the price to consolidate sideways in November, suggesting the rally may pause rather than reverse. The current price is US$203.76, with a buy zone identified at US$172.00 to US$180.00 and a sell zone at US$188.00 to US$200.00.
Bitcoin Consolidation May Provide Support
The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) ended a three-month winning streak with a sharp 8.5 per cent decline in October. The price broke down through the US$11.16 level at the beginning of the month, consolidated sideways, and then broke below the US$10.64 level on the last day of October. Despite this weakness, we expect the price to consolidate sideways in November, potentially finding support on a retest of the US$10.03 swing low formed in mid-September 2026. The current price stands at US$10.23, with a buy zone at US$10.70 to US$11.15 and a sell zone at US$11.66 to US$12.50.
Investment Challenges
Gold Breaks Key Support
The SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) tumbled for the second consecutive month, falling 6.5 per cent in October. The price consolidated sideways for most of the month before breaking below US$80.65 and the key horizontal support level at US$78.43 on the final day of the month. We expect the price to extend its weakness in November and potentially retest the US$73.40 range-consolidation resistance level formed in mid-September 2026, representing a 4.4 per cent downside from the current price.
US Treasury Bonds Under Pressure
The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) faces a challenging technical outlook. The current price is US$91.76, with a buy zone identified at US$90.70 to US$91.40 and a sell zone at US$91.75 to US$92.30. We expect the ETF to pull back in November.
Singapore Equities Extend Decline
The SPDR Singapore Equities ETF (ES3) fell for the second consecutive month, tumbling 5.5 per cent in October. At the beginning of the month, the price broke below the S$5.71 support level and subsequently consolidated sideways, retesting the uptrend support line formed since June 2025. We expect the price to extend its weakness in November if it breaks below the uptrend support line at S$5.44. Price could retest the next support level at S$5.34, a previous swing high formed at the end of June 2026, representing a 2 per cent downside from the current price of S$5.45. The buy zone is identified at S$5.23 to S$5.34, and the sell zone at S$5.51 to S$5.59.
Hang Seng Downtrend Deepens
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ETF (2828) pulled back for the third consecutive month, declining 4 per cent in October. The price bounced to form a lower high in the first half of the month before breaking down through the HKD82.84 level in the second half to extend its downtrend. We expect the price to extend its weakness in November and potentially retest the swing low support level at HKD75.29 formed at the end of June 2026, representing a 6.8 per cent downside from the current price of HKD80.82. The buy zone is set at HKD75.25 to HKD78.80, and the sell zone at HKD81.70 to HKD82.85.
S&P 500 Expected to Retreat
We expect the ETF tracking the S&P 500 to pull back in November, placing it among the majority of asset classes facing near-term downward pressure.
Outlook
The November outlook across asset classes is predominantly cautious. Five of the seven ETFs covered — those tracking the S&P 500, US Treasury Bonds, gold, Singapore equities, and the Hang Seng Index — are expected to pull back. Only the oil and Bitcoin ETFs are expected to consolidate sideways, offering relative stability in an otherwise weak technical environment. The most significant potential downside is in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ETF, where we identify a possible 6.8 per cent decline to support, followed by gold with a potential downside of 4.4 per cent.
Summary of Technical Levels
For investors monitoring entry and exit points, we have provided the following buy and sell zones:
US Treasury Bonds (IEF): Buy zone US$90.70 to US$91.40; Sell zone US$91.75 to US$92.30.
Oil (XOP): Buy zone US$172.00 to US$180.00; Sell zone US$188.00 to US$200.00.
Bitcoin (BITO): Buy zone US$10.70 to US$11.15; Sell zone US$11.66 to US$12.50.
Singapore Equities (ES3): Buy zone S$5.23 to S$5.34; Sell zone S$5.51 to S$5.59.
Hang Seng (2828): Buy zone HKD75.25 to HKD78.80; Sell zone HKD81.70 to HKD82.85.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Which asset classes performed best in October 2026?
A: The SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF (XOP) was the strongest performer, surging 13.6 per cent in October.
Q: Which asset classes performed worst in October 2026?
A: The SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) fell 6.5 per cent, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) plunged 8.5 per cent, the SPDR Singapore Equities ETF (ES3) tumbled 5.5 per cent, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ETF (2828) declined 4 per cent.
Q: What is the outlook for gold in November?
A: We expect gold to extend its weakness in November, potentially retesting the US$73.40 level, which would represent a 4.4 per cent downside from the current price.
Q: What is the outlook for Singapore equities in November?
A: We expect the SPDR Singapore Equities ETF to extend its weakness if it breaks below the uptrend support line at S$5.44, with a potential retest of the S$5.34 support level representing a 2 per cent downside.
Q: Which ETFs are expected to consolidate sideways in November?
A: The oil ETF (XOP) and the Bitcoin ETF (BITO) are expected to consolidate sideways in November.
Q: What is the potential downside for the Hang Seng ETF?
A: We expect the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ETF to potentially retest the HKD75.29 swing low support, representing a 6.8 per cent downside from the current price of HKD80.82.
Q: Where is the buy zone for the Singapore equities ETF?
A: The buy zone for the SPDR Singapore Equities ETF (ES3) is identified at S$5.23 to S$5.34.
Q: What key level did gold break in October?
A: Gold broke below the US$80.65 level and the key horizontal support at US$78.43 on the last day of October.
This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst.
Disclaimer
These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products.
Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance.
Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries.
The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries.
Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned.
This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
About the author
Zane Aw
Zane Aw is an equity research analyst focused on technical analysis, covering the Singapore, Hong Kong and United States markets. He applied a rules-based approach that incorporate trend-following techniques, price action, momentum oscillators and other indicators to anticipate key inflection points in individual stocks, sectors and broader indices. He graduated from Nanyang Technological University with a Bachelor of Accountancy (Honours).
Maximizing Retirement Wealth: How to Invest CPF-OA and SRS in SGX ETFs 
ETF Monthly Review: Mixed September Performance with Muted October Outlook Expected 
Investing in the AI Revolution: A Guide to Semiconductor & Ecosystem ETFs 
Phillip SING Income ETF Reaches All-Time High Dividend with Banking Sector Focus 
