Thai Beverage PLC: Challenging Operating Environment Amid External Pressures December 3, 2025
**Company Overview**
Thai Beverage PLC (ThaiBev) is a leading beverage company in Southeast Asia, operating primarily in the spirits and beer segments. The company maintains significant market positions in Thailand and Vietnam through its beer operations, while also commanding a strong presence in the regional spirits market.
**Below-Expectation Financial Performance**
ThaiBev’s recent financial results fell short of analyst projections. For FY25, revenue reached only 92% of forecats, while profit after tax and minority interest (PATMI) came in at 86% of expectations. The company’s spirits division was particularly weak in the second half of FY25, with PATMI declining 3% year over year. Most concerning was the sharp 11% year-over-year contraction in volumes during the fourth quarter of FY25.
The primary driver behind this underperformance was the border dispute with Cambodia, which resulted in a massive exodus of migrant workers from Thailand. This development caused significant disruption to supply chains and contributed to a decline in volumes across ThaiBev’s operations.
**Mixed Segment Performance**
Despite these challenges, ThaiBev’s beer segment demonstrated resilience with strong earnings growth in the second half of FY25. This improvement was attributed to higher contributions from Thailand operations, which reduced minority-interest impacts, and by aggressive cost-cutting measures in distribution and administrative expenses. However, beer volumes still declined 1.2% year over year in 2H25, primarily due to weakness at Sabeco following price increases.
**Investment Outlook and Recommendation**
Phillip Securities Research maintains an ACCUMULATE recommendation for ThaiBev, while lowering the target price to S$0.53 from S$0.56. The revised valuation reflects a 22% reduction in FY26 earnings estimates due to lower revenue projections and a 12x FY26 price-to-earnings ratio, which aligns with the company’s four-year average forward PE.
Despite significant forecast cuts, analysts expect earnings growth in FY26 as management is anticipated to align operating expenses with reduced volumes. The investment case is further supported by potential gross margin expansion opportunities driven by substantial declines in input costs, including packaging, malt, and molasses prices. However, ThaiBev continues to face a challenging consumer spending environment, recently exacerbated by flooding conditions that may further pressure near-term performance.
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