Weekly Updates 25/11/24 – 29/11/24 November 25, 2024
This weekly update is designed to help you stay informed and relate economic and company earnings to potentially value-add your CFD (Contract For Difference) trading via hedging (risk reducing). This article should be used for educational purposes only and not as financial advice. We urge all traders to carry out your own due diligence before submitting trades.
Recap for last week (18 Nov – 22 Nov 2024)
*These prices are taken based on the previous Monday’s opening price and the preceding Friday’s closing price.
Last week S&P 500 finished higher by 1.62% with Apple,Tesla, Walmart and Costco leading the S&P500 while Alphabet, Amazon, Qualcomm and Target under performing with Target dropping 17.83% for the week from a disappointing quarter and lower forward guidance for the holiday season. The Hang Seng index and Hang Seng Tech index underperformed as market participants are still awaiting a more substantial stimulus package from China.
Updates for the week (25 Nov – 29 Nov 2024)
The data below showing the economic releases read as “Analyst’s estimate/ Consensus | Previous data”.
This week ahead, consensus for consumer confidence will most likely improve in Nov 2024 from 108.7 to 111.8. This is based on the history where Donald Trump was first elected as the US President in November 2016, this sentiment surged by more than 8.6 points. Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — PCE deflator is expected to rise by 1%. Personal income will most likely rise by 0.3% in Oct similarly to the previous month while spending growth is expected to ease to 0.4% in Oct 2024 as compared to Sep 2024. Income gains are driven by unemployment transfer and higher interest income, meanwhile spending is supported by building materials and construction services due to Hurricane rebuilds. Initial jobless claim will continue to hover around 217k near the pre-pandemic level, however the recent expectation in rising claims is due to cooling labor market where many people find it more difficult to find jobs especially in information design, software development and media sectors.
Earnings releases for this week mainly focuses on US tech companies like Crowstrike and COVID favorite Zoom. While Chinese tech companies like Meituan and Didi’s earnings and forward guidance will provide investors with more clarity on the China economy & outlook. Market participants are eager for Best Buy’s earnings report as retailers in US has been a big hit or miss, with Target missing the mark while Walmart and Costco having upside surprises.
For those looking to speculate or capitalize on the increased volatility, CFDs provide leverage and ease of going long and short across a broad range of products available. As CFD is traded on margin, there is a risk of losing more than your initial deposit amount and traders need to adopt proper risk assessment and management to determine if CFD is the product for you. If you hold equity positions in these stocks, you can hedge your positions using CFDs to mitigate the risk of disappointing earnings releases.
US Oil Channel Trade by Jun Yuan Kwong
Key Entry Price Pivot(s)
- $71
Recommended Trade
- Short at Level $71
- Take Profit at $67
- Stop Loss at $72.60
Alternative Case
- Long at level $67
- Take profit at $70
- Stop loss at $66
Remarks
- Oil prices have been trading in a range since September, with support at $67 and resistance at $72. The $67 level has proven to be a strong support, tested multiple times.
- Analysing the 4-hour chart of US Oil, we see the price is within a downtrend channel. Currently, the price is approaching the resistance of the channel, which was rejected in late October and early November.
- A potential short trade could be considered if the price hits the resistance and forms a bearish bar.
- For traders looking to go long on oil, $67 remains a strong support level.
If you have any feedback or questions, feel free to email us at samht@phillip.com.sg or onishathyeyn@phillip.com.sg or cfd@phillip.com.sg.
Disclaimer
This material is provided to you for general information only and does not constitute a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the investment product mentioned. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation or any of your particular needs.
Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and not liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of your acting based on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks.
The risk of loss in leveraged trading can be substantial. You may sustain losses in excess of your initial funds and may be called upon to deposit additional margin funds at short notice. If the required funds are not provided within the prescribed time, your positions may be liquidated.
The resulting deficits in your account are subject to penalty charges. The value of investments denominated in foreign currencies may diminish or increase due to changes in the rates of exchange.
You should also be aware of the commissions and finance costs involved in trading leveraged products. This product may not be suitable for clients whose investment objective is preservation of capital and/or whose risk tolerance is low.
Clients are advised to understand the nature and risks involved in margin trading. You may wish to obtain advice from a qualified financial adviser, pursuant to a separate engagement, before making a commitment to purchase any of the investment products mentioned herein. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a qualifies financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest and we do not offer any advice in this regard unless mandated to do so by way of a separate engagement.
You are advised to read the trading account Terms & Conditions and Risk Disclosure Statement (available online at www.poems.com.sg) before trading in this product. Any CFD offered is not approved or endorsed by the issuer or originator of the underlying securities and the issuer or originator is not privy to the CFD contract. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
CFD Disclaimer
Investments are subject to investment risks. The risk of loss in leveraged trading can be substantial. You may sustain losses in excess of your initial funds and may be called upon to deposit additional margin funds at short notice. If the required funds are not provided within the prescribed time, your positions may be liquidated. The resulting deficits in your account are subject to penalty charges. The value of investments denominated in foreign currencies may diminish or increase due to changes in the rates of exchange. You should also be aware of the commissions and finance costs involved in trading leveraged products. This product may not be suitable for clients whose investment objective is preservation of capital and/or whose risk tolerance is low. Clients are advised to understand the nature and risks involved in margin trading.
You may wish to obtain advice from a qualified financial adviser, pursuant to a separate engagement, before making a commitment to purchase any of the investment products mentioned herein. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a qualified financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest and we do not offer any advice in this regard unless mandated to do so by way of a separate engagement. You are advised to read the trading account Terms & Conditions and Risk Disclosure Statement (available online at https://www.poems.com.sg/) before trading in this product.
Any CFD offered is not approved or endorsed by the issuer or originator of the underlying securities and the issuer or originator is not privy to the CFD contract.
This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products.
About the author
Sam Hei Tung (Assistant Manager, Dealing) | Onisha Thye (Dealing)
Sam graduated from National University of Singapore with a Master of Science in Finance. He personally manages his own investment portfolio and does equity and economic research in his free time. Sam believes that education and information is essential to making good financial decisions.
Onisha is a dealer at the CFD Dealing Desk. She graduated from Monash University with a double major in finance and econometrics. Her natural curiosity for finance is what drove her to be in this field as she is fascinated by all the possibilities and opportunities.
