股市表现回顾 10 March 2016 March 10, 2016

原油市场的走势

原油市场目前最大的消息是石油输出国组织(OPEC) 和非石油输出国将会在3月20日开会讨论冻结石油产量的可能性。

但昨天的消息是会议可能告吹,原因是伊朗可能不参加谈判,这对原油市场是个坏消息。其实伊朗不参加谈判是情有可原,伊朗曾因核武问题被美国制裁,过去三年没有出口原油。今年初制裁结束后终于恢复石油出口,他们当然不想错过这个机会增加出口提高国家收入,以偿还国债,同时通过有效的出口策略来重夺市场份额。所以这是大家揣测伊朗不会参加谈判并同意冻结石油产量的原因。

即使会议成功进行,对油价的基本面影响并不大。因为市场还是供过于求,所以市场人士要的是减产而不是冻结产量。只有减产,油价可能才会探底成功。

而大家一起同意减产,可能就要等到产油国觉得目前的油价都没什么赚头,或是当产油国的国债出现无法偿还的问题。大家迫不得已,才会谈判成功,一同减产。而这要等到何时,就相当难说了。

另一点是目前油价应该也不会维持在高价位,假设说油价回到50,60元的价位,那些页岩油生产商又有赚头了,他们就会重新投入生产,于是油价就会被拉低。而高油价也意味着石油输出国可以增加收入偿还国债,所以一些原先同意冻结石油产量的石油输出国可能到时会违背之前冻产的协议。

市场人士也要注意页岩油生产商的债券。如果油价持续走软,他们的债卷可能就成了废纸。那么连锁反应下,可能会引发另一轮的信用危机。

总而言之,油价市场目前是值得大家关注的。

隔夜美股走势

隔夜美股因为油价大起而闭市起了2.6%。这也成功带动亚洲股市大起。新加坡今天也没什么消息。只是随着区域上涨而上升。

目前阻力水平在2750点,支持水平在之前的最低点2528点。这一周其实已连涨了3天,所以投资情绪是不错的。

如果市场没有新的负面消息的话,这个涨势应该可以延续。因为以亚洲股市估值来看的话,新加坡是相对便宜的。

今晚美国会公布原油库存数据,所以油价走动会带动美国油股的涨跌,进而影响我们明天开市的表现。

About the author

股市表现回顾 10 March 2016股市表现回顾 10 March 2016

黄佳仁先生
负责人
辉立证券大巴窑股票交易团队

黄先生于2010年加入辉立证券,目前负责管理超过1万个交易户口。在加入辉立证券之前,他曾在一间投资银行工作担任3年的期货交易员。黄佳仁毕业于悉尼科技大学,专攻金融和市场营销学。他目前也是新加坡交易所学院(SGX Academy) 的讲师。

黄先生经常受邀担任新传媒8频道节目“晨光第一线”和“股市探温”的嘉宾,谈论股市动向。他也曾为《股市资讯》撰写专栏。他曾担任多场投资讲座的主讲人,包括8月举办的Invest Fair 2015。黄先生也曾在新加坡国立大学和南洋理工大学举办技术分析讲座。

黄先生擅长以浅显易懂的方式讲解基本和技术分析。讲座多以生动的实例和案例研究与学员进行讨论,通过与学员互动问答以此让学员对技术分析有更深入的了解。投资需要纪律,激情和学习意愿。黄先生希望能帮助学员迈出投资之旅的第一步。

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