Weekly Updates 25/3/24 – 29/3/24 March 25, 2024
This weekly update is designed to help you stay informed and relate economic and company earnings to potentially value-add your CFD (Contract For Difference) trading via hedging (risk reducing). This article should be used for educational purposes only and not as financial advice. We urge all traders to carry out your own due diligence before submitting trades.
Recap for last week (18 Mar 2024 – 22 Mar 2024)
*These prices are taken based on the previous Monday’s opening price and the preceding Friday’s closing price.
Last week’s market movement revolved around the Fed maintaining the Fed Fund rate at 5.5% and giving forward guidance on upcoming rate cuts for the month. Furthermore, the Fed will pay less attention to the inflation data and forecast 3 upcoming rates for 2024. Japan’s central bank has increased interest rates for the first time in 17 years, Yen weakened and Nikkei 225 raised 6.07% for the week. US 10 year bonds dropped by 2.92% fueling the rally in US markets.
Updates for the week (25 Mar 2024 – 29 Mar 2024)
The data below showing the economic releases read as “Analyst’s estimate/ Consensus | Previous data”.
This week’s macro news mainly focuses on GDP, Housing and durable good order macro data from the US and CPI inflation data from Singapore. Market participants and the Fed are looking closely at US GDP data to determine the strength of both the US economy and consumers. With personal income expected to come in lower than prior and personal spending expected to be higher than prior, mixed expectations on the strength of the US consumer. Traders and investors need to take note of the macro news to position accordingly.
This week’s corporate earnings focuses on China banks, restaurant chain, meme stock GameStop and cruise liner Carnival. With market participants and analysts with mixed sentiment over China’s economy even with recent government stimulus, guidance and loss provisions by China’s bank should indicate any possible weakness or strength. With the weakening China property market, bank’s balance sheets and forward guidance are in focus.
If you hold equity positions in these stocks, you can hedge your positions using CFDs to mitigate the risk of disappointing earnings releases.
For those looking to speculate or capitalize on the increased volatility, CFDs provide leverage and ease of going long and short across a broad range of products available.
Euro Vs Dollar – Who Will Reign? – by Tan Peng Chien
Key Entry Price Pivot(s)
- 1.09225
Recommended Trade
- Long at 1.07824
- Stop Loss at 1.07547
- Take Profit at 1.0925
Alternative Case
- Short at 1.09168
- Stop Loss at 1.09525
- Take Profit at 1.07749
Remarks
- Following the release of the FOMC statement and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision last week, stagnant rates led to a weakening of the greenback against the Euro upon the delivery of economic news.
- Despite this, the EURUSD pair did not establish a higher high, opting instead to fill a price imbalance before the U.S. Dollar regained momentum, ending the week with a lower low.
- Given the current price position above a support level, it’s plausible to anticipate multiple buy stops beyond the level of 1.0788. With ample liquidity in place, a potential trading strategy could involve waiting for the price to breach the support level and then seeking long positions on the pair around the price of 1.07824, with the various price imbalances above serving as profit-taking levels.
- Alternatively, a more conservative approach would involve monitoring this week’s price movements and observing whether the EURUSD forms a higher high above the level of 1.09400. Failure to do so could prompt traders to consider short positions around the level of 1.09168, anticipating a continuation of the pair’s downward trend.
If you have any feedback or questions, feel free to email us at samht@phillip.com.sg or onishathyeyn@phillip.com.sg or cfd@phillip.com.sg.
Disclaimer
This material is provided to you for general information only and does not constitute a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the investment product mentioned. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation or any of your particular needs.
Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and not liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of your acting based on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks.
The risk of loss in leveraged trading can be substantial. You may sustain losses in excess of your initial funds and may be called upon to deposit additional margin funds at short notice. If the required funds are not provided within the prescribed time, your positions may be liquidated.
The resulting deficits in your account are subject to penalty charges. The value of investments denominated in foreign currencies may diminish or increase due to changes in the rates of exchange.
You should also be aware of the commissions and finance costs involved in trading leveraged products. This product may not be suitable for clients whose investment objective is preservation of capital and/or whose risk tolerance is low.
Clients are advised to understand the nature and risks involved in margin trading. You may wish to obtain advice from a qualified financial adviser, pursuant to a separate engagement, before making a commitment to purchase any of the investment products mentioned herein. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a qualifies financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest and we do not offer any advice in this regard unless mandated to do so by way of a separate engagement.
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About the author
Sam Hei Tung (Dealing) and Onisha Thye (Dealing)
Sam graduated from National University of Singapore with a Master of Science in Finance. He personally manages his own investment portfolio and does equity and economic research in his free time. Sam believes that education and information is essential to making good financial decisions.
Onisha is a dealer at the CFD Dealing Desk. She graduated from Monash University with a double major in finance and econometrics. Her natural curiosity for finance is what drove her to be in this field as she is fascinated by all the possibilities and opportunities that are available to grow one’s wealth, either through trading or investment.