DAILY MORNING NOTE | 26 October 2023

Trade of the Day

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT)

Analyst: Zane Aw

(Current Price: US$85.35) – TECHNICAL BUY
Buy price: US$85.35 Stop loss: US$81.20 (-4.86%)
Take profit 1: US$92.20 (+8.03%) Take profit 2: US$97.00 (+13.65%)

Singapore shares fell 0.2 per cent on Wednesday (Oct 25). Across the broader market, gainers beat losers 300 to 298 after 1.2 billion securities worth S$799.9 million were traded. Genting Singapore was the top gainer, rising 3.6 per cent or S$0.03 to S$0.855. Meanwhile, UOL was at the bottom of the table, falling 2.9 per cent or S$0.17 to S$5.73. The trio of local banks were mixed. DBS closed flat at S$33.15, while UOB gained 0.2 per cent or S$0.06 to S$27.72, and OCBC gained 0.6 per cent or S$0.07 to S$12.84.

Wall Street stocks slid on Wednesday as traders digested mixed corporate earnings and elevated Treasury yields. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.3 per cent lower at 33,035.93. The broad-based S&P 500 shed 1.4 per cent to 4,186.74, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index plunged 2.4 per cent to 12,821.22.

SG

UOB’s 3Q2023 results met expectations with normalised net profit of S$1.48bn vs consensus estimate of S$1.46bn. This was mainly due to net interest income growth of 9% YoY to S$2.43bn on the back of NIM growth of 14bps to 2.09% and fee income growth of 14% YoY to S$591mn offset by higher allowances of S$235mn (+126% YoY). Credit costs improved slightly by 2bps YoY to 19bps as there was a GP writeback of S$78mn while NPL ratio remained unchanged at 1.6%. More details to follow after the 10.15am analyst call.

Glenn Thum
Senior Research Analyst
glennthumjc@phillip.com.sg

CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) reported in a third-quarter business update that YTD Sep 2023 gross revenue was up 9.8% year-on-year (YoY) to S$1,166.1 million while net property Income increased 6.8% YoY to S$827.3 million. 3Q 2023 gross revenue increased 4.6% YoY to S$393.3 million while net property income increased 0.6% YoY to S$275.0 million as the increase in gross rental income was offset by a rise in operating expenses largely due to higher actual occupancy and shopper traffic. Portfolio committed occupancy was up 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to 97.3% and YTD Sep 2023 rental reversions was up 7.8% and 8.8% for the retail and office portfolio respectively. The portfolio weighted average lease expiry (WALE) stood at 3.5 years, total borrowings on fixed interest rate was 78% and average debt term to maturity was 4.1 years. The REIT’s aggregate leverage ratio was 40.8% as at Sept 30 while its interest coverage ratio stood at 3.1x.

Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) has reported a distribution per unit (DPU) of 3.32 cents for the 2QFY2023/2024, 1.2% lower y-o-y. Unitholders will receive their DPUs on Dec 5. This brings its DPU for the 1HFY2023/2024 to 6.71 cents, which is down by 2.0% y-o-y. The REIT’s distributable income for the 2QFY2023/2024 increased by 3.5% y-o-y to S$94.1 million but over an enlarged unit base under its distribution reinvestment plan. The distributable income includes the distribution of compensation received for the compulsory acquisition of part of the land at 2 and 4 Loyang Lane of S$2.1 million. The sum was withheld in the 3QFY2021/2022 over two quarters from 2QFY2023/2024 to 3QFY2023/2024. The distributable income also includes the distribution of the net divestment gain of S$4.2 million from 65 Tech Park Crescent over two quarters from 2QFY2023/2024 to 3QFY2023/2024. 65 Tech Park Crescent was divested on July 20, 2017. Distributable income for the 1HFY2023/2024 rose by 1.7% y-o-y to S$187.8 million also over an enlarged unit base. The half-year distributable income includes the distribution of net divestment gain of S$15.7 million from 26A Ayer Rajah Crescent over eight quarters from 2QFY2021/2022 to 1QFY2023/2024 as well as the distribution of tax-exempt income of S$6.6 million withheld in 4QFY2019/2020 over three quarters from 3QFY2022/2023 to 1QFY2023/2024. 2QFY2023/2024 gross revenue fell by 0.8% y-o-y to S$174.1 million while net property income (NPI) fell by 1.4% y-o-y to S$128.6 million. The lower sums were attributed to the weakening of the US dollar (USD) and loss of income from the non-renewal of leases. These were, however, offset by new leases across the group’s portfolio. 1HFY2023/2024 gross revenue rose by 0.4% y-o-y to S$344.7 million due to contributions from new leases while NPI fell by 0.3% y-o-y to S$259.4 million on higher property expenses. As at Sept 30, the REIT’s overall portfolio occupancy stood at 93.2%, 0.1 percentage point lower q-o-q. Portfolio weighted average lease expiry (WALE) stood at 4.2 years by gross rental income (GRI). The REIT’s aggregate leverage ratio stood at 37.9% as at Sept 30 while its interest coverage ratio stood at 4.6x.

ESR-LOGOS REIT reported a gross revenue of S$290.7 million for the 3QFY2023 ended Sept 30, 19.2% higher y-o-y. Net property income (NPI) rose by 19.4% y-o-y to S$206.1 million. Net asset value (NAV) per unit stood at 33.1 cents as at Sept 30, compared to the 36.4 cents as at Dec 31, 2022. During the quarter, the REIT achieved a double-digit positive rental reversion of 13.5%, 2.1 percentage points higher y-o-y. The REIT’s occupancy rate stood at 90.3% during the quarter, 2.1 percentage points lower y-o-y. As at the same period, gearing stood at 37.7%. This will lower to 35.3% on a pro forma basis upon the completion of its announcement divestments. According to the REIT manager, the logistics segment is expected to continue driving positive rental reversions given the favourable sector demand and supply dynamics.

Fintech platform iFast Corporation reported a 308.4 per cent rise in net profit to S$8.5 million for the three months ended Sep 30, 2023, from S$2.1 million a year ago. The increase in profitability was driven by contributions from the group’s non-banking operations, which comprise iFast’s core wealth management platform business and its ePension division. Earnings per share for the third quarter stood at 2.88 Singapore cents, compared with 0.71 Singapore cent in the year-ago period, the company said on Wednesday (Oct 25). Revenue from non-banking operations grew 22.3 per cent to S$60.4 million, from S$49.4 million. “The Hong Kong ePension division made an initial one-month contribution during the quarter, and helped to drive the contributions from our overall Hong Kong business,” iFast said. Net revenue – which excludes commission and fee expenses – from its non-banking operations in Hong Kong increased 113.2 per cent to S$12.7 million in Q3. Including revenue from banking operations, which grew 42.1 per cent to S$5.8 million, total revenue stood at S$66.2 million, up 23.8 per cent from the previous year. Its banking operations in the United Kingdom posted a net loss of S$2.1 million, slightly better than a net loss of S$2.2 million a year ago. Looking ahead, iFast expects profit contributions from its banking operations, which are still in the “initial build-up stage”, to “still be negative in the next three quarters”. “However, the group expects iFast Global Bank to play a major role in the growth of the group in the medium to long term, particularly beyond 2025,” it said. As at end-September, iFast’s assets under administration grew 1.7 per cent quarter on quarter and 12.6 per cent year on year to S$19.1 billion. The board has declared an interim dividend of 1.30 Singapore cents per share, unchanged from the year before. The dividend will be paid on Nov 17.

Mainboard-listed MTQ Corporation has reported a profit after tax of S$7.6 million for the 1HFY2024 ended Sept 30, 342% higher than its restated profit after tax of S$1.7 million for the corresponding period the year before. The surge in profit was due to the S$6.4 million gain on disposal of the group’s property located at 182 Pandan Loop (Pandan property). Excluding the gain, MTQ’s net profit would have been S$1.2 million, around 30.5% lower y-o-y. Revenue for the 1HFY2024 rose by 8% y-o-y to S$37.7 million as its Bahrain market saw revenue increase by 32.4% y-o-y to S$18.4 million. The group’s businesses in Australia and the UK saw revenue increase by 6.8% y-o-y to S$2.6 million. The growths in these markets were offset by the 10.3% y-o-y decline in revenue in Singapore, which stood at S$16.7 million. Gross profit for the 1HFY2024 rose 6% y-o-y to S$11.4 million as revenue increased along with its cost of sales. Gross profit margin for the period dipped by 0.4 percentage points y-o-y to 30.4%. During the period, the board of directors have approved an interim dividend of 0.5 cents per share due to the overall increase in profit for the 1HFY2024.

Watch-listed semiconductor company Asti Holdings said on Wednesday (Oct 25) that its potential offerer and potential offerer consortium will no longer be pursuing an acquisition of the company. The offerers ceased interest in the company after it failed to prepare audited financial statements of the company for FY2022 by Sep 30, 2023. This had been a condition upon which the offer was contingent. Asti said it was unable to prepare the financial statement as the company no longer had an auditor, since shareholders at its last annual general meeting (AGM) approved a resolution to retire Ernst & Young, its auditor at the time. Since then, no auditor has been appointed; a resolution to appoint RT at the last AGM failed to garner majority approval from shareholders. The board said it intends to put up another resolution to shareholders to appoint an auditor as soon as possible, so that it can finalise its audited financial statement for FY2022. The company added that it will also engage with the offerers to “clarify the scope and the implications of their decision not to pursue the potential exit offer”, as well as seek other potential exit offers.

US

Meta reported better than expected results for the third quarter as revenue increased 23%, the fastest rate of growth since 2021. Earnings per share was US$4.39 vs. US$3.63 expected while revenue came in at US$34.15 billion vs. US$33.56 billion expected. In terms of user numbers, Daily active users (DAUs) were 2.09 billion vs. 2.07 billion expected, Monthly active users (MAUs) were 3.05 billion vs. 3.05 billion expected and Average revenue per user (ARPU) was US$11.23 vs. US$11.05 expected. Meta is seeing faster growth in its core digital ads business as clients rebound from a tough 2022, when revenue dropped for three straight quarters. Sales jumped from US$27.71 billion a year earlier. Net income rose 164% to US$11.58 billion, or US$4.39 a share, from US$4.4 billion, or US$1.64 a share, a year earlier. During the earnings call, Susan Li, Meta’s finance chief, said that online commerce was the biggest contributor to year-over-year growth in ad revenue, followed by consumer packaged goods and gaming. CEO Mark Zuckerberg said that so far this year, the company has seen a 7% increase in time spent on Facebook and a 6% bump on Instagram “as a result of our recommendation improvements.” For the fourth quarter, Meta said it expects revenue of US$36.5 billion to US$40 billion vs. expected US$38.85 billion. At the midpoint of the range, growth in the quarter will be about 19% higher from a year earlier. Meta said expenses for 2023 will be in the range between US$87 billion and US$89 billion, which is down from its previous forecast of US$88 billion to US$91 billion. Expenses for 2024 will fall in the range between US$94 billion and US$99 billion. Meta’s Reality Labs division, which focusses on virtual reality and augmented reality technologies, racked up US$3.74 billion in operating losses for the quarter. It has now lost close to US$25 billion since the start of last year. The company said it expects Reality Labs’ operating losses “to increase meaningfully year-over-year due to our ongoing product development efforts in augmented reality/virtual reality and our investments to further scale our ecosystem.”

IBM announced third-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street estimates. Earnings per share was US$2.20, adjusted vs. US$2.13 expected while revenue came in at US$14.75 billion vs. US$14.73 billion expected. IBM’s overall revenue grew 4.6% year over year in the quarter, or 3.5% at constant currency, according to a statement. Net income reached US$1.70 billion, or US$1.84 per share, compared with a net loss of US$3.20 billion, or US$3.54 per share, in the same quarter one year ago. A US$5.9 billion pension settlement charge hurt results in the year-ago quarter. The company’s Software unit produced US$6.27 billion in revenue. That’s up about 8% and in line with the US$6.27 billion consensus among analysts. IBM’s Consulting division generated US$4.96 billion in revenue, up around 6% but lower than consensus of US$5.11 billion. Revenue from the Infrastructure division, including IBM’s mainframe computers, totaled US$3.27 billion. The tally, while down 2%, is more than the US$3.10 billion consensus. Management reiterated guidance for the full year, including revenue growth at constant currency between 3% and 5% and US$10.5 billion in free cash flow. For the first nine months of the year, the company has generated US$5.12 billion in free cash flow.

Apple on Wednesday raised the prices for a number of its flagship services offerings, including Apple TV+, Arcade and its bundled offering, Apple One. The move follows prior price hikes in October 2022. Apple TV+ will now cost US$9.99 a month, up from US$6.99. The price increase comes after Apple upped the price in 2022 from US$4.99. The annual package will now cost US$99, up from US$69. Apple One, the bundle package used by many families to access Apple’s services at a lower price will also increase, with the top-end Premier package now costing US$37.95 a month. Apple’s Arcade and News+ monthly prices are also increasing, to US$6.99 and US$12.99, respectively. “The subscription prices for Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple One will increase in the US and select international markets beginning today,” an Apple spokesperson said. “Existing subscribers will see these price increases 30 days later, on their next renewal date.” The segment generated US$21.21 billion in revenue during the company’s fiscal third quarter, making it Apple’s second-largest business behind the iPhone, which generated US$39.67 billion during the same time period. The business is extremely profitable, and important for investors because it signals how Apple is monetizing its active base of 2 billion devices by selling them subscriptions, streaming TV, warranties, advertising, payment services and other products included in the category. The price increases mirror those made by other major media players, including Disney and Netflix. In a statement, Apple said that its subscription services had added content in recent months, saying that the number of titles on Apple Arcade had tripled since 2019, and that Apple News+ had added 100 additional newspapers and magazines since launching.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings beat Wall Street estimates for third-quarter revenue and lifted its annual forecast on Wednesday (Oct 25), as record lodging prices and higher occupancy levels boosted results. Hilton, which owns brands including Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, said its third-quarter revenue per available room, an important metric in the hospitality industry, rose 6.8 per cent from a year earlier. The company’s third-quarter revenue rose about 12.88 per cent to US$2.67 billion, exceeding the average Wall Street estimate of US$2.64 billion. Adjusted earnings of US$1.67 per share met average analysts’ estimate. Hilton now expects annual adjusted profit between US$6.04 and US$6.09 per share, compared with its prior estimate of US$5.93 to US$6.06 per share. It expects full-year revenue per room to increase between 12.0 per cent and 12.5 per cent compared to 2022. Net unit growth – which reflects room additions – remained at approximately 5 per cent for the full year.

Boeing reported a larger-than-expected loss on Wednesday (Oct 25) as it trimmed its full-year forecast for deliveries of the 737 to address a manufacturing problem on the aircraft. The US aviation giant, which has struggled with manufacturing and quality control issues in recent years, reported a third-quarter loss of US$1.6 billion, compared with a loss of US$3.3 billion in the year-ago period. The latest issue with the 737 is the result of misshapen holes drilled in a part of the fuselage that helps maintain plane pressure. Boeing said the problem is not “an immediate safety of flight issue.” However, the company is inspecting and reworking undelivered planes. As a result, Boeing now expects 737 deliveries of 375-400 this year, down from the earlier 400-450 projection. Boeing’s bottom line in the quarter was also affected by a US$482 million loss in the Air Force One US presidential plane “related to engineering changes and labour instability, as well as resolution of supplier negotiations,” Boeing said. Another US$315 million hit came from losses in a satellite contract, also in Boeing’s defence, space and security business.

Chinese electric vehicle maker Xpeng plans to bring its driver-assistance features to Europe next year, while pledging to adhere to the region’s stringent data-protection rules. The Guangzhou-based company aims to roll out its so-called Navigation Guided Pilot product in Europe by the end of 2024. Xpeng will be “fully compliant” with European regulations, vice-chairman Brian Gu said on Wednesday (Oct 25). Chinese manufactures pushing into Europe have been forced to turn off some of the software features available to drivers in their home market due to data-privacy concerns. Xpeng will start by deploying some autonomous driving capability on highways in Europe and work on providing additional features also in cities. It’s working on specific commands important to local customers, including parallel parking. Gu and chief executive officer He Xiaopeng recently visited Volkswagen’s headquarters in Germany. Europe’s biggest carmaker in July unveiled plans to invest US$700 million in Xpeng and jointly develop EVs in China. “The collaboration and project is progressing on track,” Gu said. The loss-making manufacturer has started cutting expenses across the company including in manufacturing processes, power trains and software, Gu said. Xpeng targets a steady increase of its gross margin next year to help meet its goal of breaking even in 2025, he said.

Chinese developer Country Garden Holdings has been deemed in default on a US dollar bond for the first time on Wednesday, citing a notice. Country Garden’s failure to pay interest on the note within a grace period that ended last week “constitutes an event of default”, citing the notice to holders from a trustee. A grace period ended last Wednesday as Country Garden was due to settle a US$15 million coupon payment on a bond due in September 2025. Non-payment would put the developer at risk of default on its nearly US$11 billion of outstanding offshore bonds and could trigger one of China’s biggest corporate debt restructurings. A group of investors holding about US$2 billion of Country Garden’s offshore bonds has hired PJT Partners as financial adviser to lead discussions with Country Garden for debt restructuring plans.

Source: SGX Masnet, Bloomberg, Channel NewsAsia, Reuters, CNBC, WSJ, The Business Times, PSR

RESEARCH REPORTS

Spotify Technology S.A. – Profitability around the corner

Recommendation : ACCUMULATE (Maintained); TP: US$190.00, Last Close: US$170.63

Analyst: Jonathan Woo

– 3Q23 results were within expectations. 9M23 revenue was at 70% of our FY23e forecasts, with net loss ~EUR50mn less than our FY23e forecasts. We expect earnings to breakeven for 4Q23e.

– 23mn/6mn new MAUs/Premium Subscribers both outperformed its own guidance by 2mn. 2nd largest Q3 MAU addition ever. Premium Subscriber-to-MAU ratio remains ~0.4x.

– Gross margins improved across both Premium and Ad-supported, driven by efficiencies due to scale and lowered cost structure of its podcasts. SPOT is expecting positive operating income moving forward.
– As a result of improving profitability and lower OPEX spend, we raise our FY24e EBITDA by 42% (or EUR161mn). We maintain ACCUMULATE with a raised DCF target price of US$190.00 (prev. US$162.00) to reflect a faster rate of margin expansion. Our WACC/growth rate assumptions of 7.5%/4% remain unchanged.

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