Trip.com Group - Stock Analyst Research
Target Price* | HKD 610 |
Recommendation | NEUTRAL› NEUTRAL |
Market Cap* | 3908.55 |
Publication Date | 8 Oct 2025 |
*At the time of publication
攜程集團 (9961.HK) 入境遊市場在政策支持下增勢顯著
業績摘要
2025年第二季度,公司實現總營收149億元(人民幣,下同),同比增長16.2%,主要由於旅遊需求強勁。盈利能力方面,淨利潤為49億元,同比增長25.5%,對應淨利率為32.9%,同比上升2 個百分點。分部收入方面,2Q25住宿預訂收入62億元,同比增長21.2%,主要由於國內和出境酒店業務的強勁增長;交通票務收入54億元,同比增長10.8%,出境和國際票務為主要驅動因素;旅遊度假收入11億元,同比增長5.3%,主要由於節假日旅遊需求增長;商旅管理收入7億元,同比增長9.3%,主要由於企業旅差管理服務需求增長。費用方面,該季度公司總運營支出為79億元,同比增長14.7%,與期內總營收的波動基本一致。2Q25公司研發費用率/銷售費用率/行政費用率分別為23.6%/22.4%/7.4%,同比+0.1pct/+0.2pct/-1.0pct,公司持續加大國際業務擴張和宣傳力度。
業績點評
入境遊市場在政策支持下增勢顯著:上半年全國入境遊客人數同比增長約30%,攜程平臺入境遊預訂量同比增幅超過100%。隨著簽證政策進一步放寬、中國旅遊吸引力持續提升以及相關服務體系的完善,入境游有望為國內業務持續注入增量。同時,國內旅遊需求結構也在發生變化。根據管理層,“銀髮一族”正成為重要的增長動力。截至2025年第二季度,“老友會”使用者規模及其商品交易總額較2024年底均實現超過100%的增長。同時,年輕遊客群體更加青睞“娛樂+旅遊”融合體驗,如音樂節、主題旅遊和目的地活動等沉浸式產品。2025年第二季度,此類業務收入同比增長超100%,顯示出年輕使用者旅遊消費正朝著體驗化、主題化方向快速發展。
國際業務繼續保持快速增長,用戶獲取效率超出預期:2025年第二季度,行業跨境航班運力整體恢復至疫情前84%的水準,公司出境酒店和機票預訂量已全面超越2019年同期120%的水準,持續領先行業30-40個百分點。進入暑期,隨著運力進一步恢復,機票價格同比有所下降,但仍高於疫情前水準;酒店價格則保持穩定,預計第三季度出境遊收入將繼續保持較快同比增長。同時,Trip.com平臺第二季度總預訂量同比增長超過60%,亞太地區仍是業務重點,同時中東等新興市場也展現出強勁增長勢頭。
投資建議
我們預計公司25-27年營業收入分別為618/685/785億元,歸母淨利潤分別為180/204/230億元,對應攤薄EPS為25/29/32元,當前股價對應PE為21.6/19.1/16.9x。我們採取海內外OTA企業Booking,Expedia,Airbnb和同程旅行作為可比公司,採用22倍2025年預測PE,據此測算目標價上調為610港元,評級為“中性”。
About the author

Megan Tao
Analyst
Research
She graduated from the University of New South Wales with a bachelor's degree in accounting and finance and from the University of Hong Kong with a master's degree in finance. He is currently a licensed analyst at Phillip Securities, mainly responsible for research in the TMT and semiconductor sectors, and has worked in securities companies and family offices.
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About the author

Megan Tao
Analyst
Research
She graduated from the University of New South Wales with a bachelor's degree in accounting and finance and from the University of Hong Kong with a master's degree in finance. He is currently a licensed analyst at Phillip Securities, mainly responsible for research in the TMT and semiconductor sectors, and has worked in securities companies and family offices.
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