ETF Monthly Review: Mixed September Performance with Muted October Outlook Expected October 8, 2026
Brief Overview
September proved challenging for most ETFs, with the gold-tracking ETF (GLDM) suffering the steepest decline of 6.7%, whilst the Bitcoin ETF (BITO) stood as the sole gainer with a 5.4% rise. Current market conditions show most major asset classes in range consolidation, though US Treasury Bonds, Gold, and the Hang Seng Index remain in downtrends. October is anticipated to bring sideways consolidation for some assets whilst others may extend their weakness.
Investment Positives
Limited bright spots emerged from September’s performance, with Bitcoin demonstrating notable resilience. The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF gained 5.4% in September, marking its third consecutive month of positive performance. This sustained momentum reflects continued strength in the cryptocurrency space despite broader market challenges.
The S&P 500 showed relative stability, with the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF experiencing only a modest 0.3% decline during September. This minimal pullback suggests underlying market resilience in US equities, with the index maintaining its position within a range consolidation pattern.
Several ETFs are positioned for sideways consolidation in October, indicating potential stability ahead. The S&P 500 ETF is expected to find support in the US$697.50 to US$704.30 area, whilst the oil-focused XOP ETF may trade within a defined range between US$172 and US$185.
Challenges
Gold faced significant headwinds in September, with the SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust tumbling 6.7% to become the month’s worst performer. The precious metal has entered a clear downtrend, raising concerns about further weakness ahead.
US Treasury Bonds encountered notable pressure, with the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF declining 3.3% in September. This asset class has shifted into a downtrend pattern, reflecting challenging conditions in the fixed income market.
Asian markets demonstrated vulnerability, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ETF pulling back 3% for the second consecutive month, maintaining its downtrend status. Singapore Equities also showed weakness, with the relevant ETF snapping a five-month winning streak by declining 0.7%.
Oil markets faced headwinds with the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF pulling back 4.7% during September, though it remains within a range consolidation pattern.
Outlook
October is expected to deliver muted performance across most asset classes. Four major ETFs – those tracking the S&P 500, US Treasury Bonds, Oil, and Bitcoin – are anticipated to consolidate sideways during the month.
However, three asset classes face potential further weakness. Gold may extend its decline and potentially retest the US$78.33 swing low from late June, representing a 4.5% downside risk. Singapore Equities could fall to the US$5.59 support level if they break below US$5.72, indicating a possible 2.2% decline. The Hang Seng Index may retest support at HK$80.70, suggesting a potential 1.6% downside.
Recommendation & Target Price
The report provides specific technical levels and percentage projections for various ETFs but does not include an overall investment recommendation or target prices. The analysis focuses on directional expectations, with some assets expected to consolidate whilst others may extend their current weakness into October.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Which ETF performed worst in September 2026?
A: The SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) was the worst performer, tumbling 6.7% during September.
Q: What was the only ETF to gain in September?
A: The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was the sole gainer, rising 5.4% and marking its third consecutive month of gains.
Q: Which asset classes are currently in downtrends?
A: US Treasury Bonds, Gold, and the Hang Seng Index are all currently experiencing downtrend patterns.
Q: What is the outlook for Gold in October?
A: Gold is expected to extend its weakness and potentially retest the US$78.33 swing low from late June, representing a 4.5% downside from current levels.
Q: How did the S&P 500 perform in September?
A: The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF fell slightly by 0.3% in September and is currently in a range consolidation pattern.
Q: Which ETFs are expected to consolidate sideways in October?
A: The ETFs tracking the S&P 500, US Treasury Bonds, Oil, and Bitcoin are expected to consolidate sideways during October.
Q: What support level is anticipated for Singapore Equities?
A: If Singapore Equities break below the US$5.72 level, they could potentially retest the next support level at US$5.59, representing a 2.2% downside.
Q: How did Asian markets perform in September?
A: Asian markets showed weakness, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ETF down 3% for the second consecutive month and Singapore Equities declining 0.7%, ending a five-month winning streak.
This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst.
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About the author
Zane Aw
Zane Aw is an equity research analyst focused on technical analysis, covering the Singapore, Hong Kong and United States markets. He applied a rules-based approach that incorporate trend-following techniques, price action, momentum oscillators and other indicators to anticipate key inflection points in individual stocks, sectors and broader indices. He graduated from Nanyang Technological University with a Bachelor of Accountancy (Honours).
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