新加坡旅游业2017 August 14, 2017

新加坡拥有世界最好的机场之一,也是在东南亚一个著名的贸易中心。旅游业因此对新加坡一向都是一个重要领域,直接与间接影响着多个市场领域。

新加坡目前通过航空连接了380个城市,90个国家。众多的航线造成了繁忙的航空,这导致新加坡平均每90秒就有一个起飞或抵达的飞机。

在2017年1月至5月之间 ,国际游客抵达(IVA)总数增加3.6%到约716万。近期增加最多的国家是韩国与印度,分别在五月增加了17.4%和21.7%。香港和泰国则下降最多,分别在2017年前五个月下降16.3%与7.4%。

了解新加坡的旅游业的走势可以提供对航空,、旅店,、饮食与购物领域的一些资讯。比如,通过第一季度的旅游数据,可以观察到新加坡旅游收入前三个国家是中国,印尼和印度。这三个国家与马来西亚在新加坡的主要花费普遍是购物。但是,除了印度之外,可以看见其它三国的入境人数减少。因此,可以预期第二季度的零售业,尤其是较依靠旅客花费为收入的公司可能会受到影响。(例如: Starhill Global REIT 和 SPH REIT)

此外,也能够通过对比旅店与旅客的数据来从中寻找关联。从新加坡旅游局所公布的数据,可以看到豪华和经济的客房的成绩对比2016年的数据时是有小幅度的增长。中等和普通高端的客房对比2016年时反而有所下滑。这可能从较多的美洲与欧洲的旅客有关。因为普遍而言,成熟经济国家的旅客较多的花费在于享受,包括住宿与消遣活动。发展中国家却普遍花费在购物或其他方面。从这方面可以看到,旅店领域在第二季度的成绩可能会受到影响而下滑。(例如:CDL HTrust 和 OUE HTrust)

旅游业的数据公布的比较慢,通常至少需要几个月的时间才在新加坡旅游局上公布,所以可以选择看樟宜机场网站每个月所公布的一些数据,。虽然只会有航空部分的数据,但是通过航空抵达新加坡的旅客超过77%的数据来看,也可以当作代表性的一个数据了。通过分析这些数据,我们能够做出一些不同领域成绩的评估。直接受到影响的是航空公司(例如:SIA 新加坡航空),物流业(例如:SATS和SIA Engineering)与旅店等服务业。当然,间接受到影响的也有娱乐业(例如:Genting Sing)和饮食领域,尤其是比较依靠旅客花费的生意。

我个人认为,旅游业在近期会好转,新加坡樟宜第4机场也已经准备开始运作。新的机场能够增加旅客的流量,带动更多航线的可能性也可保持新加坡樟宜机场的排名与重要性。随着网购的增加,我也预期物流业应该有所改善,因而受到市场压力的应该就是零售业了。

(IVA – International Visitor Arrival 国际游客入境)(来源:新加坡旅游局)
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About the author

张桓滋(Teo Huan Zi)
POEMS交易团队交易员

张桓滋(Teo Huan Zi)毕业于南洋理工大学(NTU),主修银行和金融系。他于2015 年加入辉立证券(Phillip Securities Pte Ltd),任职POEMS交易团队交易员。他目前为超过 一万个顾客提供交易服务。

张先生致力于基本面分析,也相信利用市场与个股的基本面分析来比较个股的投资价值。 他也经常举办英语和华语的投资讲座。也希望通过这些讲座来赋予顾客更多的投资知识。

张先生擅长基本分析。他相信透过了解顾客的投资方向与需求,方能为投资者提供更适合的市场分析与建议。他希望透过分享的交易经验与知识,能够协助投资者做出更适当的投资选择也符合投资者能承担的风险。

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