盛世买古董,乱世买黄金

August 20, 2020

关于保值投资,大家经常会听到一句老话:“盛世买古董,乱世买黄金”。这句话体现的是黄金能够抵抗大环境的不稳定。其实从去年年初开始,黄金价格已经逐步上涨,并在2020年8月6日突破了2050美金/盎司,近期开始回落调整。

Factsheets金价走势图 (2020年1月至8月)


历年黄金走势关键时期

回看一下近20年的黄金走势,有以下几个关键的时间点是我们可以借鉴到如今形势的:

  • 2000年起,黄金经过了一个较长的熊市(价格被低估),同时股票市场互联网泡沫逐步破灭,黄金价格开始缓步上升。
  • 2003年,澳大利亚悉尼上市了第一个黄金ETF基金,从此之后降低了投资者投资黄金的门槛,提供了一个更加方便的渠道,促使更多资金进入黄金市场。
  • 2007年中旬,美国次贷危机前夕,美联储开始进行第一次量化宽松政策(QE1),不断降息。黄金价格出现急速上升。
  • 2008年中旬,美国次贷危机正式爆发,市场流动性严重紧缩,黄金也受到影响,价格出现回落。但是,随着美国量化宽松政策的推行,市场流动性开始恢复,黄金成为了快速反弹的投资,并且不断突破高位上涨。
  • 2011年6月底,美国第二次量化宽松政策结束(QE2),全球股票市场开始回暖,资金也逐步从黄金回流,黄金缺乏上升能量,开始长达6年左右的震荡回落。
  • 2018年6月,脱欧法令正式生效,英国开始脱欧进程,这种政治不稳定性加大了投资者对经济环境的悲观预期。同时,由于美国在次贷危机之后有一段时间处在较低利率的市场环境当中,即使后期进入了加息周期,但是美股市场股价一直处在高估值的状态,投资者开始逐步配置避险资产。黄金,作为避险资产的首要选择之一,价格开始上升。
  • 2019年起,中美贸易战加剧,黄金持续上涨。


2020年黄金趋势的影响因素

2020年的新冠疫情,给全球经济带来了重创,如今的形势基本位于2008年中旬。然而与2008年不同的是,美股虽然在三月高位腰斩,但是接下来几个月回升速度较快,到现在已经与疫情前持平。既然美股回升,为什么这段时间黄金价格仍然持续上涨呢?这就需要谈一谈目前大多数投资人对几个事件的预期了:

  • 新冠疫情(Covid-19):目前,新冠疫情仍然在持续。虽然有疫苗已经在临床实验当中,但是疫苗离真正上市还是有一段时间。航空业,酒店业以及零售业等多数都受到新冠影响并且在疫情结束之前都很难恢复。多数投资者认为,疫情的影响还将持续很久,对整体经济形势保持偏悲观的态度。
  • 美元走势/货币政策(US Monetary Policy):在2020年3月美联储降息“大放水”之后,美国国债十年收益率持续走低,整体经济恢复较慢。大家认为,美国将在未来的一段时间内保持零利率。这样的货币政策,将导致美元持续走弱。当货币开始贬值时,投资者将倾向投资黄金这样的贵金属进行保值。
  • 中美冲突(US-China Tensions):自2020年年初以来,中美冲突不断升级,从19年延续的贸易战到如今政治层面上的摩擦,中美两大国之间的较量,会加剧整个世界经济的不稳定性,从而提供了黄金上涨的环境。


以上三个事件,是目前影响黄金走势的主要事件。投资者需要时刻关注新冠疫情,美元走势/货币政策和中美冲突以及时跟踪判断黄金的走势。


我们提供的黄金/白银产品

如果您对黄金/白银交易感兴趣,可以浏览我们的网站

  • 黄金USD1差价合约 (Gold USD1 CFD)
  • 黄金USD100差价合约 (Gold USD100 CFD)
  • 白银USD50差价合约 (Silver USD50 CFD)
  • 交易所交易基金 (ETFs)
    • GLD US$ (O87.SI)
    • SPDR Gold (GLD.US)
    • iShare Gold Trust (IAU.US)
    • ISHRS Silver (SLV.US)



交易黄金/白银差价合约的三大理由

杠杆(Leverage):大宗商品差价合约运用的是保证金交易。投资者仅需支付正常合约价格的一部分就可以进行合约交易。

另类投资(Alternative Investment):大宗商品的价值通常不会受到股票债券等传统投资产品价格因素的影响。因此,大宗商品是多元化投资组合的重要组成部分之一。

无存储费用(No Storage Cost):差价合约是一种衍生金融产品,因此投资者并不需要实际拥有合约的实物。通过差价合约,投资者可直接针对大宗商品的价格变化进行交易,同时消除了因持有实际大宗商品而产生的风险与成本。

黄金的基本面分析

我们提供黄金价格实时基本面分析(Technical Analysis),请浏览我们的网站

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Factsheets


想获取更多咨询,请浏览我们的网站免费的差价合约网络分享会或发送邮件至cfd@phillip.com.sg

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About the author

孙婉心

差价合约部门

孙婉心,毕业于新加坡管理大学李光前商学院。目前就职于辉立证券最大的交易团队。所在团队主要研究股票,基金,债券与差价合约并且负责管理超过五万账户。除了传统金融产品外,她也会关注探索金融科技领域的发展。

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