Key Events for 2020: What Should Investors Look Out For? December 23, 2019

Trade wars and geopolitical tensions in 2019 muted global economic activity and created a volatile stock market. In fact, consequential events such as the on-going trade war between China and United States and months of prolonged protest in Hong Kong resulted in the IMF taking a step back on its growth global forecast¹, as well as Hong Kong’s slide into economic recession.

With such uncertainties ahead, we have curated this handy guide to help you navigate the economy amidst the key events in 2020:

January

Taiwan

Taiwan, officially the Republic of China, will be holding its 2020 presidential election on 11 January 2020. According to the opinion polling conducted on 5 Dec 2019, President Tsai Ing-wen of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was in the lead against Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate Han Kuo-yu.

As the two major parties continue to run their election campaign and discuss domestic issues such as economy and social welfare, their differing views on democratic freedoms could possibly jeopardise the relationship between Taiwan, China and US in the next four years.²

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United States

The first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings are scheduled to take place from 28 to 29 January 2020.

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United Kingdom

As we approach 31 January, the deadline for United Kingdom (UK) to leave EU, many eyes are on UK to see how things unfold. The general election on 12 December 2019 will determine if there will be a deal approved by the new government. Until then, the UK may face a ‘no deal’ exit if the EU does not approve the extension of deadline.

A ‘no deal’ Brexit might result in major disruptions to UK’s economic activity, especially trades across border with the EU, and delays on checking of goods at custom, resulting in higher costs.

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April

South Korea

South Korea will be holding its 21st legislative election on 15 April 2020 for 14 days. Voters are obliged to elect 300 National Assembly members for a four-year term.

The corruption scandal involving Justice Minister caused the Democratic Party’s approval ratings to fall to the lowest in 2017.

Amidst the scandal and in response to global economic headwinds, the South Korean government proposed an expansionary budget for the second straight year since the global financial crisis, to focus on raising R&D spending to 10.8% annually from 2020 to 2023.

Its domestic market improved as a number of chaebols (large industrial conglomerates run and controlled by an owner or family) rallied behind this initiative, leading to growing efforts between both public and private sectors. This definitely lifted South Korea’s hopes for a high potential growth in its domestic market in 2020.

Regardless, a slow economic growth remains a high concern for an export-driven economy that the South Korean government sees a need to address it.³

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United States

FOMC meetings are scheduled to take place from 28 to 29 April 2020 and the Summary of Economic Projections will be released at the meeting.

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May

United Kingdom

7 May 2020 is the day of the UK local elections involving 118 English local councils, 8 directly elected mayors in England and 40 police and crime commissioners in England and Wales. An election to the London Assembly will also be held in conjunction with the London Mayoral election.

Areas that have had boundary changes and involvement in 2016 local elections are exempted from the elections though.⁴

June

United States

The 46^th G7 Summit will be held in USA from 10 to 12 June 2020. G7 is committed to reach an agreement in 2020 to simplify regulatory barriers and modernise international taxation within the framework of OECD, as discussed over the last meeting in 2019. Hence, world trade is likely to be one of the main focus of the meeting.

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FOMC meetings are scheduled to take place from 9 to 10 June 2020 and the Fed will release the Summary of Economic Projections at the meeting.

Check out our weekly Market Watch where our analysts and market specialists share their views http://bit.ly/2rz0pkQ

July

Japan

Japan will be holding the 2020 Summer Olympics from 24 July to 9 August 2020. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe increased Japan’s spending on infrastructure over the past few years, in the hope of boosting Japan’s tourism through this event.

When Japan hosted Olympics for the first time in 1964, she benefitted immensely from the boost in tourism and became the world’s second-biggest economy. It was a turning point for her since the post-war period.

Will this upcoming Olympics contribute to her economy and be a game-changer once again? Will Japan recover from her struggling economy and long-standing deflation?

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United States

FOMC meetings are scheduled to take place from 28 to 29 July 2020 and the Summary of Economic Projections will be released at the meeting.

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September

United States

FOMC meetings are scheduled to take place from 15 to 16 September 2020 and the Fed will release the Summary of Economic Projections at the meeting.

Subscribe to our complimentary live prices quotes and see how the stock prices react as the events unfold. Learn more: http://bit.ly/2E2NvhL

November

United States

The US Presidential Election is scheduled on 3 November. Prior to this, a series of campaigns – presidential primary elections and caucuses will take place from January 2020 to July 2020. A slate of delegates will be selected to the party’s nominating convention to elect their party’s nominee before both parties come together to hold the national convention and official election. The winner of the 2020 Presidential Election is scheduled to be inaugurated on 20 January 2021.

The current US president Donald Trump began his re-election campaign within weeks after being elected in November 2016 and officially filed his campaign with the election commission on the day of his inauguration. While there are two other Republican candidates contesting, Trump was informally endorsed in a unanimous vote within the party.⁶

FOMC meetings will be held from 4 to 5 November 2020, one day after the presidential election.

December

United States

FOMC meetings will be held from 15 to 16 December 2020, as the Fed releases the Summary of Economic Projections over the meeting.

Subscribe to our complimentary live prices quotes and see how the stock prices react as the events unfold. Learn more: http://bit.ly/2E2NvhL

Watch the Financial Markets Keenly

The confluence of events above are set to keep investors and traders on their feet, as they keenly watch major events unfold and look for signs of market volatility.

Trade tensions between the US and China will continue to dominate the news headlines. Other major ongoing events such as the impeachment charges against President Donald Trump and the HK Protest situation will lead to more uncertainty and jitters in the financial markets. Closer to home, local investors will follow the Singapore General Election to see if there will be any major policy change especially on the property cooling measures.

Keep your eyes peeled for further developments in 2020!

*Information was written on 19 Dec 2019

Reference:

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