Daily Morning Note – 04 June 2018


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Technical Analysis: Monthly recession tracker – May update (back to risk-on mode)
Analyst: Jeremy Ng
– 16 out of 17 indicators in the “Phillip Recession Tracker” remained well in
check signalling further upside in the general equity market
– TED spread and VIX index continued to subside from their respective highs
signal further sigh of relief
– Small cap stocks (Russell 2000 index) outperforming the big boys signals the
risk-on mode is back in full force
– Triple bottom rejection off the 200-day moving average in the S&P 500 index
and DJIA suggests an immediate move higher next to retest the January
record high

Singapore Banking Monthly – SIBOR will keep NIMs elevated
Recommendation: Accumulate, Analyst: Tin Min Ying
– Singapore’s domestic loans rose 5.7% YoY in April. This is a mild acceleration
from the 1Q18 growth of 4.8%.
– Loans growth in Hong Kong continues to be robust. Loans expanded 17.1%
YoY in April.
– 3-month SIBOR near 10-year highs at 1.51% in May.
– Oil & gas sector is improving but short-term recovery remains subdued.


Nonfarm payrolls increase by 223,000 in May, vs 188,000 estimate.

ISM manufacturing index beats estimates, construction spending posts biggest jump since 2016.

Global Trade Tensions Intensify Trump administration showed no sign of backing down from restrictive tariffs in the face of pushback from allies and China over the weekend.

Trump Raises Prospect of Separate Trade Deals With Canada, Mexico.

Australia’s Commonwealth Bank agrees to US$700m penalty in money-laundering case.

Vard Holdings widens Q1 loss on Monday posted its 2018 fiscal first-quarter net loss that widened from the previous year-ago quarter.

CapitaLand group CEO to retire on Dec 31. Lim Ming Yan, who joined CapitaLand in 1996, would have served CapitaLand for more than 22 years by the time he retires.

Source: SGX Masnet, Bloomberg, Channel NewsAsia, Reuters, The Business Times, PSR

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