Countdown to the US Presidential Election 2020

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Read our insights and analysis on the US Election and Markets

Counters to look out for if Trump wins
Counter Ticker Sector Trade Now
Financial Select Sector SPDRXLFFinancial
iShares U.S Energy ETFIYEEnergy
Global X US Infrastructure Development ETFPAVEIndustrial
PowerShares Aerospace & Defense Portfolio ETFPPAIndustrial
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETFVCRConsumer Discretionary
Counters to look out for if Biden wins
Counter Ticker Sector Trade Now
First Trust Nasdaq Clean Edge Green EnergyQCLNEnergy
VanEck Vectors Low Carbon Energy ETFSMOGEnergy
Global X US Infrastructure Development ETFPAVEIndustrial
iShares U.S. Healthcare ProvidersIHFHealthcare
Invesco Dynamic Building & Construction ETFPKBIndustrial

Historical US Elections

Historical stock market and economic performance months before leading up to an election often decide if the incumbent gets re-elected, we take a closer look at the data and see what it currently points to.

Counters to look out for if Trump wins
Counter Ticker Sector Trade Now
Military (LMT)LMTDefense
Traditional energy (XOM)XOMOil and Gas
Financials (JPM)JPMFinancial
Counters to look out for if Biden wins
Counter Ticker Sector Trade Now
CaterpillarCATConstruction
Nextera EnergyNEERenewables
TeslaTSLATechnology

Tax Policy and Finance sector

This article will expand on the different tax policy views by both candidates. Trump is looking to maintain his low corporate tax policy, while Biden wishes to increase corporate taxes. We will examine some of the impacts of the proposed tax policies by both candidates on the markets

Counters to look out for if Trump wins
Counter Ticker Sector Trade Now
SPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustSPYUS Indices
Invesco QQQ TrustQQQUS Indices
Vanguard S&P 500VOOUS Indices
iShares U.S. Financials ETFIYFFinancial
Counters to look out for if Biden wins
Counter Ticker Sector Trade Now
First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index FundQCLNClean Energy
Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETFPBWClean Energy
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR FundXLYConsumer Discretionary
SPDR Gold TrustGLDGold

Technology

The article will briefly introduce Trump’s and Biden’s attitude towards differen tech industries in US. It will mainly focus on recent hot topics – FinTech, Social Media, and 5G. The article will analyse the trends of major companies in these sectors.

Counters to look out for if Trump wins
Counter Ticker Sector Trade Now
FacebookFBTechnology
TwitterTWTRTechnology
QualcommQCOMTechnology
AlibabaBABATechnology
AT & TTTechnology
Counters to look out for if Biden wins
Counter Ticker Sector Trade Now
FacebookFBTechnology
AmazonAMZNTechnology
AlibabaBABATechnology
AlphabetGOOGTechnology
AT & TTTechnology

Climate Diplomacy

This article will look at US’s global position as the top oil producer and second clean energy producer. We will explore how certain companies have a vested interest in either Trump or Biden winning, and how the prices of their counters will move in response to the kind of policies Trump/Biden will enforce.
Coming soon around early of Oct 2020…

Counters to look out for if Trump wins
Counter Ticker Sector Trade Now
ExxonMobilXOMOil and Gas
ShellRDS.AOil and Gas
Chevron CorprationCVXOil and Gas
ConocoPhillipsCOPOil and Gas
Phillips 66PSXOil and Gas
Counters to look out for if Biden wins
Counter Ticker Sector Trade Now
First SolarFSLRClean Energy
Pacific Ethanol IncPEIXClean Energy
Brookfield Renewable Partners LPBEPClean Energy
Fuel CellFCELClean Energy

US-China Trade War

Phase 1 of the US-China trade deal was signed under the old normal, when additional tariffs could be absorbed by both sides. President Trump will likely ratchet up the heat on China to widen his appeal with his brand of populism. A Biden win, however, may well alter the course of relations. Read on to find out how you can gain exposure to US and China markets!

Counters to look out for if Trump wins
Counter Ticker Sector Trade Now
US SP 500 Index USD5 CFDINXUS Indices
US Tech 100 Index USD5 CFDNDX.XUS Indices
Lockheed MartinLMTDefense
Royal Dutch ShellRDS.AOil and Gas
TeslaTSLATechnology
Counters to look out for if Biden wins
Counter Ticker Sector Trade Now
US SP 500 Index USD5 CFDINXUS Indices
US Tech 100 Index USD5 CFDNDX.XUS Indices
CenteneCNCHealthcare
Nextera EnergyNEEEnergy
Brookfield InfrastructureBIPInfrastructure

Healthcare

Healthcare is a key issue in the upcoming US Election. According to a survey conducted by HRI in 2019, 71% of adult Americans were more likely to vote for a candidate based on their healthcare proposals. We will be analysing Biden’s and Trump’s positions on US Healthcare with main focus on Drug Prices, Medicare, Affordable Care Act and how their policies may affect relevant stocks.

Counters to look out for if Trump wins
Counter Ticker Sector Trade Now
MerckMRKHealthcare (Pharmaceutical)
PfizerPFEHealthcare (Pharmaceutical)
GlaxoSmithKlineGSKHealthcare (Pharmaceutical)
Counters to look out for if Biden wins
Counter Ticker Sector Trade Now
HCA HoldingsHCAHealthcare (Healthcare Provider)
Tenet HealthcareTHCHealthcare (Healthcare Provider)
AmgenAMGNHealthcare (Pharmaceutical)

Foreign Policy

This article will focus on the foreign policies Trump/Biden will likely to enact upon election. We will explore Trump’s “America First” versus Biden’s “Build Back Better” campaign their stances on the engaging versus competing with China, signalling the possibility of a “decoupling” of Sino-US sectors. Other foreign policies of concern includes Biden’s promise to reverse some of Trump’s foreign policies, and how both might tackle issues in Russia, the Middle East and the Mexico/Canada borders.
Coming soon around mid of Oct 2020…

Counters to look out for if Trump wins
Counter Ticker Sector Trade Now
Raytheon TechRTXDefense
VanEck Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETFREMXCommodities
VanEck Vectors Russia ETFRSXCommodities
TC Energy CorpTRPOil and Gas
Lockheed MartinLMTDefense
Counters to look out for if Biden wins
Counter Ticker Sector Trade Now
Brookfield Renewable CorpBEPCClean Energy
iShares MSCI Canada ETFEWCTechnology
Canadian SolarCSIQClean Energy
YandexYNDXTechnology

Industrial

Manufacturing is one of the essential sector that contributes to 11% of US GDP. More than 75% of surveyed US voters think presidential candidates should prioritize manufacturing sector, as it is vital to garner votes from the midwest states. This article will discuss how manufacturing is going to be affected by policy and budget bill proposed by both parties.Coming soon around end of Oct 2020…

Counters to look out for if Trump wins
Counter Ticker Sector Trade Now
Lockheed MartinLMTDefense
BoeingBAManufacturing
Industrial select sector SPDR fundXLIManufacturing
Counters to look out for if Biden wins
Counter Ticker Sector Trade Now
3MMMMIndustrial
CaterpillarCATManufacturing
Jacobs EngineeringJConstruction
Industrial select sector SPDR fundXLIInfrastructure

 

Sign up for our free Webinars on US Election and Markets!

Date/Time Title Venue
Weekly on Monday
01:00pm-02:30pm
Weekly US Market Outlook through Technical Analysis

Mr Chua Wei Ren | Technical Analyst | Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

Webinar
23 Oct, Fri
08:00pm-09:30pm
US Election and Understanding its impact on Finance & Tech sector

Lee Yong Heng | Dealer | Phillip Securities Pte Ltd

Mike Ong | Senior Dealer | Phillip Securities Pte Ltd

Webinar
30 Oct, Fri
06:00pm-07:00pm
美国大选和全球科技创新的机遇

Mr James Ooi | Manager, Investment Solutions | Phillip Securities Pte Ltd

Mr Martin Chong | Director, Portfolio Management | Phillip Capital Management

Webinar
30 Oct, Fri
08:00pm-09:00pm
US Election and Understanding its Impact on Healthcare and Foreign Policy

Chua Boon Siang | Equities Specialist | Phillip Securities Pte Ltd

Yeap Jun Rong | Research Analyst | Phillip Securities Pte Ltd

Webinar
13 Nov, Fri
07:00pm-08:00pm
What’s next after the US Election and Implications on Global Markets

Peggy Mak | Head & Chief Investment Officer | Phillip Securities Pte Ltd

Yeap Jun Rong | Research Analyst | Phillip Securities Pte Ltd

Webinar

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Even if the election is contested, the country will have a President on Inauguration Day (20 January 2021) according to the Constitution and federal law. This process will take place after voters go to the polls on 3 November – States will have more than a month to count the ballots, including mail-in ballots, and conduct recounts if necessary. The states’ electoral votes have to be cast by 14 December, and the candidate with 270 or more votes wins. On 6 Jan 2021, a joint session of Congress will convene, with Vice President Mike Pence presiding, to certify the results. The elected President and Vice President will be sworn in on Inauguration Day.

However, if election issues prevent a winner from being named, the 12th Amendment from the Constitution states that in such a case, the House of Representatives elects the president and the Senate elects the Vice President. The new Congress that enters in January is the one tasked with carrying out this “contingent election”. If that also fails and the House has not elected a President by Inauguration Day, then the 20th Amendment takes over. This states the Vice President-elect act as President until a President is picked. And if there’s no Vice President selected by Inauguration Day either, then the Presidential Succession Act applies. This says that the speaker of the House of Representatives, the Senate president or a Cabinet officer, in that order, would act as President until there’s a President or Vice President.

Joe Biden’s strategy for Wall Street is clearly different from that of US President Donald Trump. Joe Biden’s proposal to raise corporate taxes will be closely watched. This issue has significant implications for the company’s profits, after US President Donald Trump’s corporate tax cut from 35% to 21% boosted the US company’s earnings by an estimated 8%-10% in 2018. We have provided a more detailed description of the different scenarios in our report – Phillip Macro – US Elections Scenario Analysis.

The “America First” agenda will remain at the heart of the Republican campaign. An incumbent President has won re-election 63% of the time, and since the American Civil War, only those who experienced an economic recession during their first term were unsuccessful. We have provided a more detailed description of the different scenarios in our report – Phillip Macro – US Elections Scenario Analysis.

There are different scenarios that could pan out from this scenario. The US Supreme Court may be asked to intervene to decide on whether the President has been selected, and also on the status of key states votes. Its decision could end legal uncertainty about the succession. If the US Supreme Court rejects to step in, it could result in more uncertainty in the process. While there are calls for the military to intervene, General Milley, who is Trump’s top military adviser and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said publicly he would not follow an unlawful order.

 

 

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