Key Events of 2022 December 30, 2021
Some key events investors must keep an eye on in 2022
The news in 2021 was dominated by COVID-19. And just when things seemed to be getting better, new variants such as Delta and Omicron emerged and hampered the return to a pre-pandemic normal.
Thankfully, many events were held due to the deployment of vaccines.
The Tokyo Summer Olympics was held without spectators1 and countries restarted cross-border travel.
In 2021, many countries also started transitioning from the pandemic to the endemic stage, and hopefully in 2022 we are able to resume more activities that were put on hold by the pandemic.
Here is a list of some of the key events for 2022 that investors should take note of when making investment decisions.
January
United States
FOMC meeting
The year’s first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for 25-26 January 20222. The bond-buying program was brought forward because of the fear of inflation3. This month will be the start of the accelerated $60 billion bond-buying each month.
Europe/United Kingdom
Portugal will hold its general election on 30 January 20224. This election was called due to the rejection of the government’s 2022 state budget proposal5. There will be 230 seats up for grabs in parliament, and the new government will be responsible for deploying around 45 billion euros to tide Portugal through the COVID-19 pandemic.
Find out more about trading in Portugal’s stock market here.
Global
World Economic Forum
The annual World Economic Forum, which was scheduled for 17-21 January at Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, has been postponed due to the spread of the COVID-19 variant Omicron. The organiser is now planning for an online session around early summer 20226.
The theme for the forum will be “Working Together, Restoring Trust”.
It will be the first global leadership event to set the agenda for sustainable recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic7. The meeting is expected to address economic, environmental, political and social fault lines exacerbated by the pandemic.
The forum will see politicians and business leaders exchange views on how to drive the post-pandemic economy. This event will set the tone for the economic landscape, especially as there is an increasing focus on climate change following pledges made to tackle the issue at COP26.
February
Europe/United Kingdom
ECB monetary policy meeting
The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its first monetary policy meeting for the year on 3 February 2022.
Singapore
Singapore is poised to release its Budget 2022 in February. This year’s budget revolves around three main topics: (1) Thriving in a post-COVID-19 world, (2) Strengthening the social compact and (3) Preparing Singapore for a greener and more sustainable future8.
The budget will shed clarity on how government spending is allocated as the island city’s economy bounces back from the low of the pandemic, and how the country is adapting to the post-pandemic world.
Hong Kong
Hong Kong’s 2022/23 budget is expected in February-March 2022.
Global/China
Winter Olympics
The 2022 Winter Olympics will be held in Beijing, China.
It may seem like any other major international multi-sport event, but the winter games will be more politicized.
This is because several countries have joined the US in a diplomatic boycott of the games over human rights issues.
Despite Beijing’s official line that China couldn’t care less about the boycott, it did however warn of “resolute countermeasures”9.
You can expect tensions between the two superpowers to encompass more issues and involve retaliation.
Separately, the Chinese government has rolled out regulations targeting certain industries like gaming and the property sector. The new property rules cost Evergrande dearly.
March
United States
FOMC meeting
The FOMC meeting will be held over 15-16 March 2022. This meeting will be crucial as March is when the tapering ends. Market participants will be watching this meeting for signs of the first interest rate hike.
Hong Kong
The 2022 Hong Kong Chief Executive election is scheduled for 27 March. It will determine who wins the 6th term of the highest office in Hong Kong. The winner will be inaugurated on 1 July 2022 after incumbent Carrie Lam completes her term.
Lam is eligible for a second term, but her re-election would be difficult with the numerous controversies that plague her administration.
The issues range from the imprisonment of democracy activists to the highly criticized extradition law, which sparked widespread protests.
The election comes at a time of escalated tensions between China and the US, and is significant given Hong Kong’s unique position.
China is looking to have a Chief Executive to further its domestic goals.
Investors can consider investing in Hong Kong despite the political uncertainty there.
Find out more about trading in Hong Kong’s stock market here.
South Korea
The 20th presidential election in the Republic of Korea is scheduled for 9 March.
As South Korea president is restricted to a single five-year term in office under the constitution, incumbent President Moon Jae-In is not eligible to run again.
The frontrunners in the presidential race are the representatives of major political parties.
For the Democratic Party, the contender is Lee Jae-myung. This party supports the social market economy and reconciliation and reunification with North Korea.
For the People’s Power Party, the contender is Yoon Seok-youl. This party supports neoliberal economic policies and has a hawkish stance on North Korea.
For the Justice Party, the contender is Sim Sang-jung. And for the People’s Party the contender is Ahn Cheol-soo.
Find out more about trading in South Korea’s stock market here.
April
Europe/United Kingdom
ECB monetary policy meeting
An ECB monetary policy meeting has been scheduled for 4 April 2022.
The French presidential election will take place this month10. There are a total of 7 candidates vying for the job,11 including President Macron. At the time of writing, Macron had yet to announce his decision on running for the presidency, but he is expected to do so. Macron’s main rival is Marine Le Pen, who is planning to allow foreigners access to family allowances only after a 5-year wait. The other 5 candidates are — Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Anne Hidalgo, Yannick Jadot, Valérie Pécresse and Eric Zemmour.
Find out more about trading in France’s stock market here.
May
United States
FOMC meeting
An FOMC meeting will be held over 3-4 May 2022
Europe/United Kingdom
ECB monetary policy meeting
An ECB monetary policy meeting has been scheduled for 9 June 2022.
Find out more about trading in Germany’s stock market here.
Australia
The 2022 Australian federal election is slated to be held on or before 21 May.
In the previous election, the incumbent government won a majority of 77 seats, while the major opposition secured 68 seats out of the 151 seats.
The upcoming election will see the government led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison seeking a fourth consecutive term in office. It is however faced with headwinds on Medicare, jobs and taxes, and previous elections have shown that negative political advertising campaigns have swayed voters.
A series of lockdown measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic could also prompt Australian voters to back a new coalition.
November’s polling numbers suggested that the opposition was in the lead. The Australian Labor Party (55.5%) had an edge over the incumbent Liberal National Party (44.5%)12.
Find out more about trading in Australia’s stock market here.
The Philippines
The presidential and vice-presidential elections are scheduled for 9 May.
Incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte is limited to a single term and thus ineligible for re-election.
The Philippines may see a shift in policies ranging from its drugs crackdown to pursuing “independent” foreign ties with China and Russia while detaching from the US13.
Also, due to repercussions from the current administration’s policy decisions, the next president could inherit a country with a lower crime rate due to President Duterte’s vocal support for extrajudicial killing of criminals, which strained relations with the US14.
Depending on the new leader’s inclinations, ties with China and Russia could be boosted or relations could be mended with the US, its traditional ally.
Former professional boxer turned politician Manny Pacquiao is one of the leading candidates for the election.
Find out more about trading in the Philippines’ stock market here.
June
United States
FOMC meeting
An FOMC meeting will be held over 14-15 June 2022.
Europe/United Kingdom
Slovenia will hold its general election by 5 June 2022 and 90 members will be elected.
July
United States
FOMC meeting
An FOMC meeting will be held over 26-27 July 2022.
Europe/United Kingdom
ECB monetary policy meeting
An ECB monetary policy meeting has been scheduled for 21 July 2022.
Taiwan is expected to release its Central Budget Plan for 2023 in July 2022.
Find out more about trading in Taiwan’s stock market here.
September
United States
FOMC meeting
An FOMC meeting will be held over 20-21 September 2022.
Europe/United Kingdom
ECB monetary policy meeting
An ECB monetary policy meeting has been scheduled for 8 September 2022.
Sweden’s parliamentary election will be held by 11 September 202216. This election will be without Stefan Lofven, who was the Prime Minister of Sweden from 2014 to November 202117. Lofven stepped down to provide his successor with a better chance to improve the party’s standing in the upcoming election.
Global
UN General Assembly
The 77th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA 77) is scheduled for 13-27 September.
Expect debates on issues of governance and international negotiations.
iPhones release
As is usually the case with Apple, the latest generation of iPhones; the iPhone 14 lineup will likely be launched in September.
Investors around the world pay attention to this release as it helps them gauge if the world’s most valuable company can continue with cutting-edge innovations.
The importance of the yearly release has slightly diminished partly due to Apple’s transition to a more service-oriented business model as compared to just being “the company that make iPhones”.17
October
Europe/United Kingdom
ECB monetary policy meeting
An ECB monetary policy meeting has been scheduled for 27 October 2022.
Find out more about trading in United Kingdom’s stock market here.
Global
G20 summit
The 17th G20 summit is planned for 30-31 October and will be held in Bali, Indonesia.
The G20 is attended by the leaders of 20 of the world’s major advanced and emerging economies, to discuss issues related to global health architecture, sustainable energy transition and digital transformation.
The 2022 summit is expected to focus on the pandemic’s impact on life and the future of shared prosperity that relies on collective ability to create an inclusive and sustainable foundation for growth18>.
Find out more about trading in Indonesia’s stock market here.
November
United States
FOMC meeting
An FOMC meeting will be held over 1-2 November 2022.
US midterm elections
The 2022 US midterm elections will be held on 8 November 2022 .
A total of 469 seats — 34 in the Senate and 435 in the House — will be up for election.
This election is crucial as the US is currently enjoying a “Blue wave” where Democrats make up the majority of the Congress.
US President Joe Biden will face difficulty pushing his policies if the Democrats were to lose seats in either the Senate or the House.
China
The Communist Party of China (CPC) will convene for the 20th National Congress in Q4 2022.
The party congress is held twice in every decade and is the highest governing body within the CPC.
This congress has gained international media attention as it involves leadership changes.
In a way, this impacts the policy direction and stance going forward for China that will not change much in the next five years.
The 20th National Congress is a key event which will determine if the paramount leader Xi Jinping will stay on for a third term (after abolishing presidential term limits) — an otherwise unprecedented scenario in history — or if the leadership is passed on to a younger candidate.
In any case, it will be pivotal for Chinese politics given the backdrop of controversies arising from human rights issues. Slowing economic growth will also be in focus.
Find out more about trading in China’s stock market here.
Global
COP27
The 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP27) is scheduled for 7-18th November.
Following pledges from countries to commit more to climate action notwithstanding the last-minute insistence of China and India to change “phase out” to “phase-down”, COP27 will see if countries are taking steps towards keeping their pledges.
FIFA World Cup
The highly-watched soccer event, the FIFA World Cup, which is held once every four years, will be hosted by Qatar from 21 November to 18 December.
December
United States
FOMC meeting
An FOMC meeting will be held over 13-14 December 2022.
Find out more about trading in the US stock market here.
Endemic transitioning phase
The markets faced a few speed bumps in the last quarter of 2021. With COVID-19 becoming the norm and the Fed and ECB giving their views of the coming year, the markets seem to be in a better spot than they were in the last quarter.
All attention now will be on the US-Russia and US-China fronts. The global market may be in a bind if relations between these countries sour further as economic sanctions can be rather damaging.
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Reference:
- [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-set-declare-state-emergency-tokyo-area-through-aug-22-minister-2021-07-08/
- [2] https://marketnews.com/fomc-publishes-2022-meeting-schedule
- [3] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/15/fed-speeds-taper-and-leaves-rates-unchanged-five-experts-gauge-impact.html
- [4] https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/portugal/
- [5] https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-business-elections-state-budgets-portugal-44f46d8e4457bf6375c529cd021a9b77
- [6] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/20/davos-world-economic-forum-postpones-meeting-due-to-covid.html
- [7] https://www.weforum.org/press/2021/09/world-economic-forum-plans-2022-annual-meeting-in-davos-klosters-c77de6b5fb/
- [8] https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/mof-seeks-views-and-suggestions-for-budget-2022
- [9] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-olympics-boycott/2021/12/07/4310efa0-5704-11ec-8396-5552bef55c3c_story.html
- [10] https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/
- [11] https://www.euronews.com/2021/12/07/french-presidential-election-who-s-who-in-the-race-to-replace-macron
- [12] https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8862-federal-voting-intention-november-2021-202111250505
- [13] https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/myth-rodrigo-duterte-s-independent-foreign-policy
- [14] https://www.eastwestcenter.org/publications/the-new-normal-president-duterte%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%9Cindependent%E2%80%9D-foreign-policy
- [15] https://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/3766/
- [16] https://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/3813/
- [17] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swedish-pm-lofven-says-step-down-november-2021-08-22/
- [18] https://g20.org/
- [19] https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2022
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About the author
Chan Zi Quan (Dealer) & Lee Yong Heng (Senior Dealer)
Phillip Securities Pte Ltd
Zi Quan is a US Equity Dealer in the Global Markets Team and specializes in the US and Canadian markets.
He is an avid crypto fan and is adept in macro analysis.
Yong Heng joined Phillip Securities in June 2020 as an Equity Dealer in the Global Markets Team. He specializes in the US and Canada markets assisting clients and also supports the UK and Europe markets. Yong Heng graduated with First Class Honours from Singapore Institute of Management, University of London (SIM-GE) in 2015 with a Bachelor’s Degree in Economics & Finance. He also completed his CFA studies last year.
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