Exotic Currency Pair
You will face stability and predictability when you engage in major currency pair trading. Nevertheless, some lesser-known exotic currency pairs beckon with untapped possibilities. Although these exotic pairs may not be the most frequently traded, they present interesting opportunities as well as challenges. Trading these currencies is like exploring a wide range. It is risky but can result in amazing rewards if done correctly. This blog gives you insights on the Exotic Currency Pair.
Table of Contents
What is an Exotic Currency Pair?
An exotic currency pair is a combination of one major currency, for example, and any from an emerging or less traded economy. This forms an exotic currency pair in a forex market. Unlike major currency pairs, which include popularly traded currencies like the euro and Japanese yen, exotic currency pairs consist of currencies of countries with relatively smaller economies or less well-known financial systems. Examples of exotics include the Turkish lira, the South African rand, and the Singapore dollar — all versus the US dollar. These are less common pairs traded, but they all have their own unique opportunities and challenges for traders.
Understanding Exotic Currency Pairs
Exotic currency pairs normally possess greater volatility and lower liquidity than major or minor pairs of currency. An asset is said to be liquid if it can be easily purchased or sold without affecting the price much. Major pairs, such as EUR/USD or GBP/USD, are considered highly liquid since they are traded a lot. Exotic currency pairs, on the other hand, see a low volume of trade, sometimes creating larger price fluctuations and even wider spreads—the difference between the quoted asking and selling price.
This volatility is partly due to the economic and political conditions of the countries concerned. For example, TRY can realise higher volatility contingent upon periods of political turmoil or economic crisis in Turkey, making it less predictable than currencies emanating from stable economies, such as those of the United States or Japan. Traders dealing with exotics must be aware of such risks and the great potential for substantial returns based on price movements.
Also, since exotic pairs are less frequently traded, they are susceptible to influences from factors that don’t usually affect major currency pairs. For example, local economic reports, political events, and even natural catastrophes in the country of the exotic currency can result in sudden and sharp price movements.
Factors Affecting Exotic Currency Pairs
Some of the various influences on the value and trading of exotic currency pairs include:
- Economic Stability: The more unstable an economy is, the more volatile its currency is. Inflation, unemployment rate, and economic growth directly affect a nation’s currency value. For example, if a country has a highly inflated economy, its currency might weaken compared to more stable currencies such as USD.
- Political Conditions: Political events, such as elections, coups, and changes in government policy, might greatly impact the value of an exotic currency. For example, uncertainty during an election might make investors believe less in a currency, causing its fall.
- Interest Rates: Central banks in countries with exotic currencies may change interest rates more frequently than those in more developed economies. The higher the interest rate, the more foreign investment it might attract, driving up the currency’s value; similarly, lower rates might do the reverse.
- Market Sentiment: Investor perceptions and market sentiments are highly susceptible to exotic currencies. If investors perceive the economy of a particular country is improving, they will buy more of that country’s currency, which appreciates in value. Similarly, negative sentiments could trigger selling and depreciation in the value of a currency.
- Global Economic Trends: Events and trends occurring on the global stage, such as commodity price fluctuations or a general shift in trade agreements between nations, also affect exotic pairs. For example, if oil prices fall, the currency of a country relying heavily on its oil exports would likely weaken.
Trading Strategies
Given the volatility and the disparate elements that drive the price action, any trade of exotic currency pairs requires a different approach from trading in major or minor pairs. Here are some strategies that can be effective:
- Trend Following: Since exotics are highly volatile, it will be useful to follow long-term trends. Traders seek consistent price movements in a single direction and then ride the trend until it shows signs of reversal. This approach requires patience and a good understanding of market trends.
- Carry Trade: This involves borrowing a low-interest-rate currency and investing in a higher-interest-rate one. In case of interest rate differentials, the normal characteristics of exotic currencies are their high interest rates, which make them normally attractive for carry trading. The traders, however, must be wary of eventual changes in interest rates or economic conditions that may generate losses.
- Breakout Trading: Exotic pairs might result in sudden price changes, so traders generally revert to breakout strategies. Traders achieve this by plotting the key levels of support and resistance and then entering a trade once they have broken out of these levels. Breakouts tend to bring in substantial profits, especially if the market becomes really volatile.
- Fundamental Analysis: Since exotic currencies are highly sensitive to economic and political events, fundamental analysis becomes crucial. Traders will closely watch news and reports from both countries, such as announcements of economic data, local political actions, and decisions by central banks.
- Risk Management: Proper risk management is necessary due to the increased risk in trading exotic currency pairs. This may include placing stop-loss orders to limit possible losses and refraining from over-leveraging trades. Traders may also diversify trades and not depend too heavily on one type of exotic currency pair.
Examples of Exotic Currency Pairs
Exotic currency pairs are many, but here is a short list of some popular exotic currency pairs in which traders have lately shown much interest:
- USD/SGD-US dollar vs. Singapore dollar: The US dollar is paired with the currency of a smaller yet economically powerful country. This country’s stable economy and strategic position in relation to international trade make this currency pair quite appealing to traders.
- USD/TRY (US Dollar/Turkish Lira): The Turkish lira is traditionally a volatile currency, usually depending on the economic conditions in Turkey and, secondly, the political climate. This pair offers higher potential gains, but it also involves a very high level of risk because price fluctuations happen very frequently.
- USD/ZAR-US Dollar/South African Rand: The South African rand is another exotic currency with volatility. Its commodity pricing, mainly gold, keeps it in the eye of its political and economic performance in South Africa, which holds this pair in influencer factors.
- USD/HKD (US Dollar/Hong Kong Dollar): The Hong Kong dollar isn’t as volatile as some of the other exotic currencies, yet this is still considered an exotic currency pair because of the unique position of Hong Kong in Asia with close ties to China.
Frequently Asked Questions
Exotic pairs include one major currency and one from an emerging market. Their high volatility and low liquidity mark them.
This is because they rely on less stable economies and political conditions. With that come larger price swings and unexpected movements within the market.
Exotic currency pairs normally have wider spreads and higher transaction costs because of their thinner liquidity and greater risks associated with trading.
The factors that influence them include economic stability, political events, interest rates, and global trends in general, which influence the less stable currencies involved.
Stop-loss orders, diversification of trades, prudent leverage management, and keeping abreast of the economic and political events affecting countries that have the currencies under consideration.
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iX Biopharma Ltd – Gaining altitude with significant approvals
Brief Overview The US Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) has declared an Emergency Use Authorisation for drugs to treat moderate-to-severe acute pain in military injuries, following a military emergency determination by the US Secretary of War in July 2026. This declaration represents a significant step towards FDA approval and commercialisation for iX Biopharma's Wafermine product. Phillip Securities Research maintains its BUY recommendation with an unchanged target price of S$1.00. Investment Positives The HHS declaration creates a substantial positive development for iX Biopharma's prospects. The company now benefits from inherent endorsement by two US government departments - HHS and DOW - that Wafermine is suitable for Emergency Use Authorisation approval. This dual departmental support significantly strengthens the regulatory pathway for the drug. The Emergency Use Authorisation pathway offers compelling commercial advantages. If granted, EUA will allow Wafermine to be deployed for authorised use by US military personnel before receiving full FDA approval. Crucially, commercialisation via EUA will generate income for iX Biopharma while the Phase 3 clinical programme continues, providing revenue streams during the lengthy approval process. The financial foundation for development remains solid, with iX Biopharma having received a sole-source US$41 million award from the Department of War (DOW) in February 2026 specifically to develop Wafermine for treating moderate-to-severe acute pain. Additionally, the Phase 3 trials will be fully funded by the DOW, removing significant financial burden from the company. Production capabilities are set to expand systematically, with the US production line expected to commence in 1Q27, followed by three additional production lines in 2Q27, positioning the company for scaled commercialisation. Outlook The regulatory timeline remains clearly defined with major milestones unchanged. The company expects to complete the Wafermine EUA submission by 4Q26, with EUA approval anticipated in 1Q27 and EUA production beginning in 2Q27. Phase 3 trial approval is also expected in 2Q27, maintaining the structured development pathway. Recommendation & Target Price Phillip Securities Research maintains a BUY recommendation for iX Biopharma Ltd with an unchanged DCF SOTP target price of S$1.00. The recommendation and forecast remain unchanged despite the positive regulatory developments. Frequently Asked Questions [market_journal_faq] This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Palo Alto Networks Inc – Highest Sales Growth in 9 Years
Brief Overview Palo Alto Networks delivered 4Q26 revenue and PATMI results that met expectations, with FY26 results at 101% of forecasts. The company achieved 34% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by platformisation and rising demand for AI-driven security solutions. Future growth is expected to be supported by platformisation, AI infrastructure buildout, and AI security adoption through various offerings. Investment Positives Strong organic growth represents a key investment highlight. The company achieved 4Q26 revenue growth of 34.4% year-on-year, marking the strongest performance since 1Q17. This robust growth was underpinned by two primary factors: platformisation, as customers consolidated security spending onto PANW's platform to reduce costs and complexity, and rising demand for AI-driven security solutions such as Prisma AIRS and Cortex XSIAM (AgentiX) amid escalating AI-related threats. Platformisation has driven significant upsell and cross-sell opportunities, supporting strong wallet share expansion and sustaining a net retention rate above 120%. The strategy has proven particularly effective among large enterprises, with deals exceeding US$10mn in NGS ARR growing 50% year-on-year in customer count terms. Top deal wins included telecommunications and payment platform companies. NGS refers to PANW's newest AI- and ML-powered security offerings. Inorganic growth from acquisitions provides additional momentum. PANW has integrated the financials of two recent acquisitions: CyberArk (Idira), which provides identity security for human, machine, and AI identities, and Chronosphere, which enhances observability across applications, infrastructure, and cloud workloads. Idira contributed US$336mn (10% of 4Q26 revenue) and US$1.5bn (13% of FY26 revenue on a pro forma basis), whilst accelerating 4Q bookings growth. The company also acquired Embrace and Console, though these were immaterial to FY27e guidance. Challenges The acquisitions, primarily CyberArk, required funding through a mix of cash and stock, resulting in increased debt levels and higher interest expense. The financing structure also increased shares outstanding in FY27e, which impacts dilution for existing shareholders. Outlook Future growth is expected to remain supported by platformisation and AI infrastructure buildout, with over 65% of NGS ARR from platformised customers and over 120% net retention rate supporting upsell and cross-sell activities. Rising AI capital expenditure is driving more infrastructure to secure and traffic to inspect. Additionally, AI security adoption through Prisma AIRS, Cortex, and CyberArk should benefit from autonomous agents increasing demand for governance, identity security and real-time cyber defence. Recommendation & Target Price Phillip Securities Research has downgraded its recommendation to NEUTRAL from ACCUMULATE, with a higher DCF-based target price of US$346 (previously US$320). The downgrade follows recent share price performance, with PANW rallying approximately 160% from its February low to an August peak of US$396. Frequently Asked Questions [market_journal_faq] This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Phillip Singapore Monthly: August 2026 – Trading at a Justified Premium
Brief Overview Singapore equities delivered another strong month in August, rising 2.3% for the fifth consecutive month of gains. Banks and industrials led the advance, with bank earnings climbing 13% year-on-year driven by a 40% surge in wealth management fees. Global bond yields are reaching multi-year highs whilst Singapore yields have remained sideways, and market valuations are becoming rich at 17x forward P/E, though momentum continues supported by robust earnings drivers. Investment Positives Multiple sectors are benefiting from strong earnings momentum that justifies the market's premium valuation. Banking stocks show particularly robust fundamentals with loan growth surging 10% year-on-year and deposit flows rising substantially, with CASA deposits up 12%. Capital market activity remains vibrant with SDAV exceeding 30%. DBS and OCBC results beat expectations, demonstrating the sector's underlying strength. Industrials are capitalising on the AI-driven boom in electronic exports, whilst shipyards are seeing improved outlooks as container freight rates jump. The power sector is enjoying rising electricity spreads as LNG prices pick up, and defence companies benefit from ongoing global conflicts and increasing national security requirements. The analyst notes that inflation expectations remain muted with 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation expectations stable despite rising bond yields. Liquidity remains ample, reflected in US$8 trillion held in money market funds, suggesting sufficient market support. Challenges Several sectors face challenging conditions. Transportation companies are suffering from the reignited Middle East conflict, with the sector declining 11.8%. REITs remain lacklustre amid concerns about a hawkish Federal Reserve, posting modest returns of 0.5% to negative 1.3%. Healthcare faces pressure from payers and currency headwinds, whilst telecommunications confronts ongoing price competition. The REIT sector specifically faces headwinds from expectations of higher interest rates and growing supply of new issues. The pending AirTrunk IPO could absorb US$1.5 billion in liquidity from the REIT sector. Mid-cap stocks have been de-rated following poor IPO performance and the sell-down in UltraGreen.ai, indicating selective weakness in certain market segments. Outlook Despite rich valuations, the analyst believes the premium is justified by growing earnings momentum across multiple sectors. Global bond yield rises are attributed to reversed Federal Reserve rate expectations, stronger global growth, and hyperscaler bond issuance totalling US$250 billion for data centres. The expectation has shifted from two rate cuts to one rate hike. However, the analyst does not expect a bond rout that would derail equities given muted inflation and ample liquidity. Recommendation & Target Price The report does not specify a formal recommendation or target price, but suggests the current 17x P/E premium above the historical 15x average is justified by strong earnings drivers across banking, industrials, power, and defence sectors. Frequently Asked Questions [market_journal_faq] This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Q & M Dental Group Awaits Inorganic Growth Amid Challenging Operating Environment
Brief Overview Q & M Dental Group's 1H26 results fell short of expectations, with revenue and adjusted profit after tax representing just 45% and 25% of full-year forecasts respectively. The company faced softer-than-expected performance in Singapore and China, whilst higher finance costs from pending acquisitions have weighed on earnings. Despite these challenges, the analyst maintains a BUY recommendation with expectations of seasonal recovery and inorganic growth opportunities. Investment Positives The primary investment case centres on significant pending acquisitions that are expected to drive future growth. Q & M Dental has S$146 million in pending acquisitions of dental clinics across Australia (S$107 million) and Thailand (S$39 million). The acquisition structure involves S$92 million in cash payments and 86.7 million shares valued at S$0.70 each. According to the analyst, these acquisitions will boost earnings per share by at least one cent following the new share issuance. The analyst has incorporated profit-guaranteed earnings from both Australia and Thailand acquisitions into their forward valuations, albeit at a 50% discount to reflect execution risk. Looking ahead, the analyst expects a seasonal recovery in Singapore during the second half of FY26, coupled with improving revenue intensity as the company pursues initiatives to elevate the complexity of dental care services. In China, Q & M Dental plans to launch a new hospital in 2H26, which should support the division's performance. Challenges The company faces significant operational headwinds across its key markets. Whilst reported revenue grew 12.5% to S$99.5 million, this growth was primarily driven by the consolidation of Aoxin Q&M Dental from associate status into China's revenue figures. Underlying performance was weaker, with Singapore revenue declining 1.3% and revenue per clinic in Singapore falling 5.3% due to weak consumer demand. The China operations face particular challenges from government-imposed price controls and subdued demand stemming from the broader economic environment. Aoxin specifically recorded a 21% revenue decline in 1H26, highlighting the pressures facing the Chinese dental market. Discretionary demand for dental services in Singapore proved particularly weak during the first quarter, though some recovery was evident in the second quarter. Outlook The analyst has lowered FY26 adjusted earnings expectations by 30% to S$12.7 million, reflecting the challenging operating environment. However, expectations remain for improvement driven by seasonal factors in Singapore and the launch of new facilities in China during the second half of the financial year. Recommendation & Target Price Phillip Securities Research maintains a BUY recommendation with an unchanged target price of S$0.71. The analyst has rolled forward valuations to FY27 to incorporate the expected profit-guaranteed earnings from the Australian and Thailand acquisitions. Frequently Asked Questions [market_journal_faq] This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Singapore Aviation Sector Faces Fuel Price Surge and Margin Pressure
Brief Overview In August 2026, Singapore's aviation sector experienced significant declines, with SATS dropping 18.5%, CAO falling 16.1%, SIA declining 11.8%, and SIA Engineering decreasing 1.3%. The sector faces renewed margin pressure as jet fuel prices surged above US$160 per barrel due to escalating Middle East tensions. Despite these challenges, APAC carriers' net margins are forecast to compress from 3.5% in 2025 to 2.1% in 2026, whilst the previously supportive cargo yield tailwind is expected to fade as capacity normalises. Investment Positives Singapore Airlines demonstrated remarkable resilience compared to industry peers, posting a net margin of -1.33% in 2Q26 versus the broader full-service carrier average of -6.78%. This outperformance underscores the relative benefits of SIA's strong fuel-hedging position and diversified network mix, even as the broader sector became loss-making. SIA Engineering benefits from underlying MRO demand, which helped limit its decline to just 1.3%. The company's largest customer, Singapore Airlines, continues working through its order pipeline and receiving aircraft deliveries despite industry-wide OEM backlogs. SIA's fleet is aging, with average fleet age reaching 7 years 9 months as of FY26, whilst the 777-300ER and 747-400F fleets are the oldest, likely requiring increased heavy checks and maintenance work going forward. Air cargo markets present mixed opportunities, with APAC-to-US volumes growing at double digits driven by AI-related demand. Export volumes from the Middle East and South Asia continue growing year-on-year, indicating resilient underlying demand, whilst pricing remains sticky with global blended rates holding in the $2.95-2.97/kg range. Challenges The primary concern is the renewed jet fuel price shock, with Singapore jet fuel climbing back above US$160 per barrel and crack spreads widening dramatically from around US$35 to over US$60 per barrel. This widening has eroded the value of Brent-based fuel hedges, leaving Brent-hedged carriers less protected than previously anticipated. Currency impacts vary significantly across markets, with Japan experiencing a 173% increase in local-currency fuel costs due to yen weakness, whilst China saw costs rise 132% despite renminbi strength. Air cargo rates face normalisation pressure as airlines restore capacity, threatening the cargo yield tailwind that previously cushioned earnings. The EU's removal of de minimis exemptions continues dragging cargo volumes, with Hong Kong-to-Europe volumes down approximately 35% year-on-year and China-to-Europe volumes declining 5-8%. Middle East capacity disruptions, whilst benefiting some routes, highlight ongoing geopolitical risks. Outlook Global passenger traffic growth remains modest at 0.2% year-on-year, affected by US-Iran tensions. Air cargo rates are expected to normalise as capacity is restored, particularly as Middle East carriers' networks, which account for around 80% of India-to-Europe capacity, remain disrupted. The combined Boeing and Airbus backlog reached 16,038 aircraft as of 2Q26, up 6% year-on-year. Recommendation & Target Price Phillip Securities Research maintains a NEUTRAL stance on air transportation amid the renewal of the US-Iran conflict. The report indicates that near-term stabilisation of jet fuel prices and crack spreads is unlikely given ongoing Middle East tensions. Frequently Asked Questions [market_journal_faq] This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Singapore Banks See Loan Growth Hit 10% as Volume Replaces Margin
Brief Overview Singapore banking shows encouraging momentum with interest rates rising for the fourth consecutive month and loan growth reaching 10% year-on-year for the first time since COVID. Phillip Securities Research maintains an ACCUMULATE recommendation on the sector, highlighting that volume growth is now compensating for what interest margins cannot deliver. The firm has raised target prices for DBS to S$85.00 and OCBC to S$33.20. Investment Positives The strongest positive driver is Singapore loan growth reaching 10% year-on-year for the first time since COVID, with July 2026 showing 9.96% year-on-year growth. This volume expansion is becoming the key growth engine for banks, effectively replacing the contribution that interest margins previously provided. OCBC is demonstrating confidence in this trend by raising its loan growth guidance, signalling management's optimism about sustained lending momentum. The current account savings account (CASA) segment shows robust growth at 12% year-on-year, providing banks with a stable funding base. Interest rate trends are stabilising favourably, with 3-month SORA rising for four consecutive months to 1.14% in August. Whilst this represents only a 1 basis point month-on-month increase, it marks the smallest year-on-year decline in 21 months at 58 basis points below the previous year's level. The analyst has raised profit after tax and minority interest estimates by 1% and increased return on equity projections by 0.7%, reflecting improved operational performance expectations. Banks' financial year 2026 estimated dividend yields remain attractive at 3.9%, with buybacks and capital return dividends supporting return on equity. Challenges The key limitation is that net interest margins are stabilising rather than recovering meaningfully. Whilst SORA has risen for four consecutive months, it remains 58 basis points below year-ago levels, constraining margin expansion potential. The CASA ratio has eased to 20.4% of deposits despite absolute growth, indicating some pressure on the funding mix. Additionally, deposit pricing pressures persist, evidenced by UOB raising its 12-month promotional rate by 10 basis points to 1.40% in August, suggesting that deposit pricing has stopped falling and competitive dynamics remain challenging. Outlook The analyst expects 3-month SORA to hold around current levels through the second half of 2026 estimated, providing stability for planning purposes. The sector outlook centres on volume-driven growth compensating for margin constraints, with banks positioned to benefit from sustained loan demand whilst managing funding costs. Recommendation & Target Price Phillip Securities Research maintains an ACCUMULATE recommendation on Singapore banks. The firm has raised target prices, setting DBS at S$85.00 (previously S$79.00) and OCBC at S$33.20 (previously S$31.70), based on higher loan growth expectations and improved profit estimates. The analyst prefers DBS for its fixed dividend per share policy and raised financial year 2026 estimated guidance, and OCBC for its wealth momentum and remaining capital return potential. Frequently Asked Questions [market_journal_faq] This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Apple Launches First Foldable iPhone Amid Pricing and AI Challenges
Brief Overview Apple held its "Surprise and Shine" event on 9 September, launching several new products including its first foldable smartphone, the iPhone Duo. The iPhone Duo starts at US$1,999, whilst the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max received US$100 price increases to US$1,199 and US$1,299 respectively. Phillip Securities Research maintains a REDUCE recommendation with a raised target price of US$300, citing concerns over demand sustainability and AI execution despite expecting strong initial demand. Investment Positives The introduction of the iPhone Duo creates an entirely new price tier above the Pro Max, which should provide further support to iPhone average selling prices (ASPs). The analyst expects the new product lineup to generate strong initial demand, particularly for the iPhone Duo due to its novelty factor as Apple's first foldable smartphone. The pricing strategy across the range, including US$100 price increases for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, is expected to strengthen the overall product mix. This has prompted the analyst to raise FY27e revenue and PATMI estimates by 1% and 2% respectively, reflecting the anticipated benefits of higher iPhone ASPs and an improved product mix following the iPhone Duo launch and Pro lineup price increases. Challenges The sustainability of demand at these increasingly premium price points remains untested and represents a key concern for the investment outlook. The analyst notes that AI remains the weaker component of Apple's investment story, with execution and adoption likely to determine whether Apple Intelligence becomes a meaningful driver of replacement cycles. Several near-term headwinds weigh on the company's prospects, including supply constraints, rising memory costs, and AI regulations. Significantly, there is currently no clear evidence that Apple Intelligence is meaningfully driving product upgrades, which undermines a key potential growth catalyst. Outlook The outlook remains complicated despite the exciting new foldable product launch. Whilst strong initial demand is expected, particularly for the innovative iPhone Duo, the combination of unproven demand sustainability at premium price points and weak AI positioning creates uncertainty. The success of the product launches will likely depend on consumer acceptance of higher pricing and the eventual effectiveness of Apple Intelligence in driving upgrade cycles. Recommendation & Target Price Phillip Securities Research maintains a REDUCE recommendation on Apple Inc. The DCF target price has been increased to US$300 from the previous US$290, based on higher expected iPhone ASPs and stronger product mix. The WACC of 6.5% and terminal growth rate of 3.5% remain unchanged. Frequently Asked Questions [market_journal_faq] This article has been auto-generated using PhillipGPT. It is based on a report by a Phillip Securities Research analyst. Disclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Beyond The Usual Markets: Discover Kazakhstan
A Closer Look At Kazakhstan As Kazakhstan gains popularity as a travel destination across Central Asia, attention is slowly shifting from tourism to opportunity. What many don’t realise is that the same country attracting visitors today is also offering high-yield, under-owned investment opportunities that global markets have yet to fully price in. Most investors today are crowded into the same trades — US tech, India growth, or China recovery. But some of the most compelling opportunities are often found where few are looking. Kazakhstan is one of those markets. It is not a headline market. It is not widely covered. But that’s exactly where its opportunity lies. This article breaks down why Kazakhstan deserves a place in your portfolio — and how you can actually invest in it. Why Kazakhstan, And Why Now? Kazakhstan is the world's ninth-largest country by area, the world's largest uranium producer, and a top-ten oil exporter. Its stock exchange, Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE), has quietly delivered 40% returns over the past 12 months, beating most developed and emerging markets. Yet non-residents account for just 8.3% of trading volume. The institutional wave has not arrived yet. We believe this represents a genuine early-mover window. The Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), modelled on Dubai's DIFC and backed by a 2026–2028 strategy to attract sovereign wealth funds and global pension capital, has already channelled $21.5 billion in structured investment since inception, including $7.2 billion in 2025 alone. The infrastructure is being built to handle institutional money at scale. The question is whether your portfolio is positioned before that happens. Four Reasons This Market Stands Out Exceptional Income Yield Halyk Bank, Kazakhstan's largest lender, offers a dividend yield of 11–13% — ranking in the top 1% of banks globally. Other KASE names offer 6–10%. At a P/E of ~4×, income investors are being paid to wait. Tax-Efficient By Design Dividends and capital gains from actively-traded KASE-listed shares can attract 0% withholding tax (WHT) for foreign investors — a structure that is genuinely rare among emerging or frontier markets. Real Economic Growth GDP grew 6.5% in 2025 — the fastest pace since 2011 — driven by record oil output, infrastructure investment, and the expansion of trade corridor logistics linking China to Europe. Critical Minerals Optionality Kazakhstan holds 12% of global uranium reserves and is a major copper and rare earth producer. As supply chains diversify away from single-country concentration, this positions KZ as the critical minerals hub of the next decade. The Tax Advantage: Plain And Simple Kazakhstan's tax regime for foreign investors in listed equities is one of the most favourable we have seen in any comparable market. Here is what matters most when investing through our platform. Dividends — 0% Withholding Tax (WHT) Shares that are actively traded on KASE (meeting monthly volume and transaction thresholds) qualify for a full withholding tax exemption on dividends for foreign investors. You may confirm your status with our Global Markets Desk before each position. Capital Gains — 0% For Individuals Non-resident individuals pay zero tax on capital gains from shares traded on the open market via KASE. For legal entities, gains are exempt after a 3-year holding period in non-subsoil-user companies. 53 Double-Tax Treaties Kazakhstan's double tax treaty (DTT) network covers Singapore, the US, UK, Germany, and most EU states. Investors from treaty countries benefit from further protection and potential rate reductions on non-exempt income. Tax-related information provided is for general guidance only. Please consult your tax advisor for confirmation and clarification. Five Stocks To Start With These five names represent the most liquid, transparent, and well-covered companies on KASE across five distinct sectors. Each was chosen for accessibility and suitability for investors new to the market. Risks To Keep In Mind Tenge Depreciation KZT forecast at 600–610 per USD by end-2026. At HSBK's 13% yield, the income more than offsets expected FX drag. For capital-focused positions (AIRA, KMGZ), the buffer is thinner. Oil Price Sensitivity Kazakhstan remains highly sensitive to oil prices, with crude strength supporting fiscal revenues, the tenge and KMGZ earnings. With Brent currently above USD 100/barrel, the oil-price backdrop is supportive of Kazakhstan’s macro outlook and energy sector profitability. However, a sustained reversal in crude prices would remain a key downside risk given the economy’s continued reliance on hydrocarbons. Liquidity And Order Depth Outside HSBK and KMGZ, order books can be thin. Always use limit orders on KZTO, KCEL, AIRA, and ASBN. Do not place market orders on mid-cap names — you risk moving the price against yourself before the order fills. Trade Kazakhstan With POEMS Kazakhstan-listed shares are now available for online trading through POEMS. Trading Hours (SGT) Pre-Opening Session 2:20PM – 2:30PM Main Continuous Session 2:30PM – 8:30PM For more information, visit POEMS or contact our Global Markets Desk at talktoglobalmarkets@phillip.com.sg. Make Kazakhstan Part Of Your Global Market View Explore Kazakhstan on POEMS and discover opportunities across KASE. Trade Kazakhstan ↗ Open An Account Now! DisclaimerDisclaimer These commentaries are intended for general circulation and do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person acting based on this information. You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment product(s) mentioned herein, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products. Opinions expressed in these commentaries are subject to change without notice. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Past performance figures as well as any projection or forecast used in these commentaries are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (PSPL), its directors, connected persons or employees may from time to time have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in these commentaries. The information contained in these commentaries has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in these commentaries are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in these commentaries are subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. The companies and their employees mentioned in these commentaries cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies and/or omissions howsoever caused. Any opinion or advice herein is made on a general basis and is subject to change without notice. The information provided in these commentaries may contain optimistic statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information provided in these commentaries. Views and any strategies described in these commentaries may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other units of PSPL or its connected persons and associates. Any reference to or discussion of investment products or commodities in these commentaries is purely for illustrative purposes only and must not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the investment products or commodities mentioned. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
